People seem to think Michigan is all industrial and blue. This isn't the case

[gollygee]

There are really three Michigans.

1. Your industrial areas. Often urban. Large number of people of color. Vote blue.

2. Suburban areas and/or college town. These are red, blue, or mixed, depending on the specifics. When you hear about counties that sometimes go red and sometimes go blue, they fit in this category.

3. Rural Michigan. There are very few Democrats in rural Michigan, and there is a great deal of racism. You can read the book Sundown Towns for the history. But there are so few Democrats that local races are all decided in the Republican primary as there aren't any Democrats available to run or at least it isn't possible for Democrats to win. Since local elections are decided at the Republican primary, there isn't as big an incentive to vote in a general election, unless someone appeals to them as much as Trump did. I think a lot of people from this group decided to vote in the general election this time, and that's what flipped Michigan to red. Rural areas will NEVER go for a Democratic candidate. Never. There is no winning this group of people to our side. It is quite literally impossible.

[el_bryanto]

1. That pattern seems repeated in many places

It's true in my area - North Florida is a sea of red with an island of blue where the capitol is.

That said I don't know about it being impossible to reach rural voters in Michigan; while it certainly seems like an uphill climb, it has to be at least possible.

Bryant

[gollygee]

2. Not if you want to keep Democratic voters

You'd have to be anti-abortion, anti-LGBT rights, anti-immigration, anti-civil rights, very VERY pro guns. And then you aren't a Democrat anymore anyway.

[el_bryanto]

3. Well I wouldn't favor that approach

But there are presumably also areas of agreement that we might be able to build on. Things like corporate cronyism for example, sure to be a bigger deal in the new administration, and one would like to think that some people in rural Michigan would be concerned about that as well. There are also presumably individuals living in that area who do vote Democratic.

Bryant

[gollygee]

4. If they're anti-abortion and pro-guns, they don't care about corporate cronyism

Abortion and guns and being anti-LGBT and racism are bigger than corporate issues to a lot of voters.

And there are a few Democrats here and there, but very few. Individuals would be the accurate word.

[Snotcicles]

5. I think we have to be louder about what we are Pro about, Pro-Medicare, Pro-Social Security,

Pro-Overtime pay, Pro-Workers Rights and Equal Pay, Pro-Veterans Affairs, Pro-Infrastructure Projects.

[gollygee]

8. Yes I agree with that

But they're very anti. I just don't think rural upper midwest areas are where the Democratic Party should be putting time and energy. These will not be productive areas. Industrial areas and mixed areas are where it's at. Those are more populous places too so there would be more impact even if it were just a numbers game.

Nobody is going to get rural Michigan to vote Democratic. You might as well try to sway rural white Mississippi.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

14. They most certainly CAN be won over

The first step is to stop talking about them in a derogatory way.
Second...understand that the rural reality is DIFFERENT than the urban reality. Start looking at gun control in the same way you look at mental health treatment...least restrictive necessary on a case by case basis. A rural county with few people and nearly no crime does NOT need or want the same restrictions as a high crime/gun violence inner city area.

Instead of approaching issues like abortion as "I'm right, you're wrong," approach it with an attempt to understand how the other side feels about the issue. Religious people are not focused on harming the woman, they're focused on saving the unborn child. It's OK to understand, respect and empathize with that position while still supporting choice. The two sides COULD work together to try to PREVENT abortions and push for policies that make it easier to adopt or even keep a child when you don't feel you financially can.

As far as LGBT rights...those can be respected and honoring while also respecting the religious rights of churches and business owners whose faith makes it so they feel conflicted over taking part in same sex weddings. People need to do better remembering that our individual rights end when they cross the line of infringing upon the individual rights of someone else. If both sides could work harder to really honor and understand that delicate balance then damn near any voter is reachable.

[gollygee]

15. Churches can never be forced to do same sex weddings

Because of the first amendment.

But business owners can't discriminate and I am not willing to negotiate on issues of discrimination against LGBT people. I am the mother of an LGBT person. Civil rights in general are very important to me. I would not recognize a Democratic Party that didn't care about civil rights.

And we are much more likely to lose votes by ignoring civil rights than gain the votes of rural religious people.

[lunasun]

6. Are there militia types in rural Michigan ? They are anti gov. But may have been attracted to Trump

and his white message, if the groups still exist . Used to hear about them a long time ago (and to watch out as they are a very racist groups) . Would they vote at all ? Still in MI?

[gollygee]

7. Oh yeah

They're still here. And yes I imagine they voted for Trump anyway.

[lunasun]

9. I was googling to answer my question and found a vet blog with some background ...interesting

Years ago I just learned to stay away from those areas of MI and them but reading this made sense to me of where the anger and republican love came from in the rural areas
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2010/04/03/gordon-duff-the-michigan-militia-movement-americas-left-behind/

In the post 9/11 atmosphere, race resentments have, with some organizations, taken on a guise of “patriotism.” Increasingly, with the radicalization of the media, nothing new for Michigan, hatred and violence are becoming a real threat. The best known radio commentator, the “Glen Beck” and “Rush Limbaugh” of his day was Father Caughlin of Detroit. His daily broadcasts, carried nationwide, blamed “liberals” and Jews for the Depression.

The basis for current militia groups is much the same as it had been under their earlier name, the KKK. Hatred of Jews, Cathoics and African Americans and now Muslims are the only real policy, now hidden behind Fox News/Sarah Palin “bumper sticker” politics. The real story is being “left behind,” disenfranchised and angry. Since the “trickle down” economic theories of the Reagan years, America’s standard of living has steadily diminished while wealth has accumulated in the hands of the few, wealth and control of the press. Thus, the ignorant and angry have become the “Storm Troopers” diffusing any reexamination of failed policies that have resulted in what many call “neo-Feudalism” by attacking those who would oppose the radical deregulations of America’s financial system that brought about the Bush era collapse.

The militia movement has, unknowingly, become “dupes,” the most economically and socially deprived of the nation, yet at war with those whose restruturing of economic checks and balances might rebuild the collapsed economies that have driven them to “Talibanization.”

[Buckeye_Democrat]

10. It's like that almost everywhere. n/t

[gollygee]

11. I've been reading a lot of posts about Michigan that seem to assume

Michigan = Industrial. That everyone in Michigan is (or was) in a union, and would be a potential Democrat. I know it isn't true in Ohio as well, and probably at least most of the US, but I'm specifically saying right now that there are plenty of potential new Trump voters to make up the difference in votes in Michigan. I am very skeptical that many people in Michigan switched from voting Dem in the past to voting for Trump. I don't doubt a few did, and I do know one person (but only one person) who did. But I think it was mainly rural people who made Michigan go red this time.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

12. Clinton didn't get the same level of support as Obama too.

I posted this the other day (among other states that flipped to the Republican this time which showed a similar pattern):

MICHIGAN

2012
Obama 2,564,569
Romney 2,115,256
Other 65,491

2016
Clinton 2,264,807 (-299,762)
Trump 2,277,914 (+162,658)
Other 242,502 (+177,011)

[gollygee]

13. Yes I think there are two parts

1. Trump got rural people out to vote.

2. Clinton didn't excite Democrats enough to get out to vote.

People are assuming that it's the same group of poeple who voted for Obama and then voted for Trump, and I'm sure there are a few, but I don't think it's a large number of people.

[MichMan]

16. Good analysis for the most part.

I lived in the Metro Detroit suburbs for half my life and moved to a rural part of the state 23 yrs ago.

I agree with a lot of this; there is a wide chasm between the larger urban areas and the rural areas. Detroit features Democrats only, there are no Republicans even running. The opposite is true in my county. Therefore in the local elections, there is only one candidate on the ballot.

For the most part, the state always goes for the Democratic candidate for President and Democratic Senators. The Governor is limited to two terms, so that can shift back and forth. Usually the same party does not hold the Governor for more than 8 yrs.

I think the reason Hillary lost was due to an energized rural Trump support, and not enough enthusiasm for Hillary in the urban areas. The Detroit turn out seldom breaks the 50% barrier and Hillary was never going to get the same enthusiasm in the minority community like President Obama did. Finally, I think there was a lot of Clinton fatigue with many voters.

If you look at history, it would be unusual for one party to win the presidency for consecutive 8 Yr terms; the electorate is usually ready for a change.

While Michigan was the birthplace of the union movement, there is very little unionization in most of the state any more. There are a lot of auto suppliers trying to compete against those in Mexico. Profit margins are tight and competition is always present. Employees are afraid if they unionize that their customers will source parts across the border and their plant will close due to lack of business.

Finally hunting and guns are a lifestyle in this state