2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThere's hope-a duo of predictions for Donald Trump's resignation or impeachment
Michael Moore was right when he predicted Donald Trump could win last July. But this is what he said on Huff Post re. Trump's staying power: Heres whats going to happen, this is why were not going to have to suffer through four years of Donald J. Trump, because he has no ideology except the ideology of Donald J. Trump." What have we seen that the President-elect has either said or advocated that wasn't connected to the well-being of Donald Trump? Nothing.
Interestingly enough, Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, D.C., also forecasted the win. But, then, he has predicted nine consecutive presidential election results based on a model he created that consists of 13 factors. He doesn't believe in polls and kicks sand at all the data mining fanatics that depend entirely on numbers. At the same time. Lichtman also felt that Donald Trump would be impeached.
Nate Silver's 538 Blog, which has called several presidential elections correctly, picked Hillary Clinton for a win right up to Nov. 8, 71.4% to Trump's 28.6%. Others foresaw the actual outcome which you can see here. Allan Lichtman had 13 true false statements but Michael More decided based on just 5 reasons. They are:
Midwest Math, or Welcome to Our Rust Belt Brexit; The Last Stand of the Angry White Man; The Hillary Problem; The Depressed Sanders Vote; and The Jesse Ventura Effect.
Each is an interesting look at election psychology, and you can read them here.
Could Donald Trump surprise us all and turn out to be a fine, upstanding President? But, with very limited thought, little chance.
Passionate & Progressive
Mike Nelson
(10,289 posts)...government run by Pence and the others doesn't make me feel any better about Trump leaving office.
MFM008
(20,000 posts)He may be a poor hating bigot but hes a "standard" republican, like Ryan.
Not that special kinds of crazy the maggot has.
We are going to have a fairly conservative republican government. Does it have to be completely corrupt and inept as well? Mike Pence for his many faults isn't going to base his presidency off of grudges and flattery like Herr Trump.
And to be fair, Trump's need for adulation may work in our favor from time to time. I'm skeptical that he is going to go all in on Ryan's plans for medicare/social security because he (and his base) hates Ryan and touching healthcare can become a double edged sword.
Mike Nelson
(10,289 posts)...Trump's team are unacceptable, to me. I suppose if might be better if Pence fired them all and put "normal" conservative Republicans in charge. They would behave more nicely in public. Still, I see them as all cut from the same cloth. Pence's competence might even help dismantling FDR's America, reversing LGBT rights, putting people of color "in their place" and "cherishing" women who dress nice and look pretty.
LisaL
(46,624 posts)Txbluedog
(1,128 posts)Once he doesn't play be their rules. Do not mistake their using him to liking him
LisaL
(46,624 posts)SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)They still have to contend with Trump's base, who will feel that they've been slighted by Washington insiders and have been willing to give Trump a pass. They know that he's a corrupt sexual predator. He would have to lose them before the house/senate republicans could touch him without suffering at the ballot box and that's going to be tough.
Txbluedog
(1,128 posts)But if he starts tanking in popularity due to their policies they'll make him the fall guy, especially if 2020 reelection appears to be problematic
LisaL
(46,624 posts)because that would piss off your average Trump voter.
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)That's the answer to "Could Donald Trump surprise us all and turn out to be a fine, upstanding President?"
No way. He's been a snake all his life, after 70 years he's not going to grow legs and arms and stand upright.
JI7
(90,563 posts)those supporters of his who make up a large part of the republican party are the reason they were so reluctant to criticize him in the primary and GE .
but if they were to turn on him i can maybe see them doing it.
but the problem i see is that if his base starts to question he will pick out some minority groups and go after them which will in turn get his base excited to back him completely.
and the republicans who are afraid of losing any support will go along.