How big do Sanders wins have to be to overtake Hillary in the delegate lead?

[UMTerp01]

From what I have heard its not just wins that Bernie needs but OVERWHELMING wins in order to catch Hillary Clinton in the delegate lead. So is there any place that has put together a realistic map of the remaining primaries and caucuses to show what he has to do to catch up? Is there a certain number that he needs to keep Hillary under? What are the chances he catches her? And not just hope and wishful thinking, but the real chances he catches her and then could make a case for superdelegates switching.

[bigwillq]

1. Yuuuge!

[FarPoint]

2. He can't do it....

The Democratic Party and voters/ delegates will not give him anything close to what he would need. It's almost over now...

[Kaleva]

3. Proportional voting makes it virtually impossible

[revbones]

4. It's significant, but not impossible.

Otherwise, why would there be such a fervor to tell him to drop out after ~50% of the voting? Logic would seem to say that

a) in the second half it could be possible to get just as far ahead and Hillary is now and tie
b) possibly get farther ahead than Hillary is now
c) lose
d) be the only candidate if she is indicted or suffers some fallout from the email scandal.

Anyone saying anything is definite is just lying. Polls may indicate things will go one way, and maybe they will. Truth is we can't predict the future.

[redstateblues]

11. You forgot unifying and focusing on the GE

No matter-Let's go all the way- Hillary will win and Bernie will hopefully campaign against Trump. That will be the true test of Bernie

[revbones]

12. Wait, what?

I don't get the unifying and focusing on the GE part of your statement, or how it pertains to my comment.

Also, maybe he does endorse her - god that would be a hard pill to swallow after all her lies during this campaign. It won't affect my vote. I'm not a cult member. I vote Bernie because of his policies and positions, not because of what he tells me to do.




For the inevitable jurors, once the alerting Hillary supporter wakes from their fainting:
The Terms of Service clearly state "But that does not mean that DU members are required to always be completely supportive of Democrats. During the ups-and-downs of politics and policy-making, it is perfectly normal to have mixed feelings about the Democratic officials we worked hard to help elect."

[Garrett78]

31. We can make informed predictions.

We know that Clinton does best in larger, more diverse states. We know that Sanders does best in smaller, less diverse states. That's a pattern, and I see no reason to believe that pattern will get flipped upside down. Given that and Clinton's 300+ delegate lead, it's virtually impossible for Sanders to win the nomination.

Request after request has been made for someone to use one of the delegate calculators to demonstrate a realistic path to 2026 for Sanders. As far as I know, those requests have never been answered. There's a reason for that.

[H2O Man]

5. This big.

[RandySF]

6. I think about 58% in every remaining state.

[wisteria]

23. About 58%

You are correct.

[hrmjustin]

7. Realistically he would need to win states he is not favored to win by big margins.

[HooptieWagon]

8. Clinton leads Sanders 1-0...

In FBI investigations. She's probably more worried about superlawyers than superdelegates.

[brooklynite]

10. How clever; I sure that changed a lot of minds

[grasswire]

19. it amused some of us, for sure. nt

[reformist2]

9. If his national numbers continue to climb steadily, he'll be at 65% by convention time.

[redstateblues]

15. At this point national numbers don't matter. State by state delegates are what matters

[reformist2]

18. A rising tide will solve all Bernie's delegate problems.

[cosmicone]

22. And after Hillary is elected in November

Sanders will be at 117%

[bkkyosemite]

26. be careful you might run out of breath with all that laughing..

[cosmicone]

27. No ... I pace myself

There is always another laughable post coming from Bernie supporters!

[bkkyosemite]

28. sure doesn't look like it

[Tarc]

13. Sanders needs to run every state left at around 60%

Which would only put him up around a +80-90 or so.

As soon as you start swapping out those 60% with real numbers...30% in KY, 40% in AZ and NY, and a few others, Clinton is right back on top.

[Uponthegears]

14. Thank you for confirming

what we all know after Secretary Clinton's AIPAC speech . . . Hillary can care less about what a majority of Democratic primary voters in a majority of states in which a majority of voters reside think about her.

[redstateblues]

16. Any candidate that doesn't back Israel is toast

[Uponthegears]

17. Is that little gem

from the same playbook as "Any candidate who doesn't accept corporate dollars is toast?"

[reformist2]

20. The question is how much? I think there's room for debate on that.

On this issue, Hillary looks ridiculous as usual. She goes way overboard to please whatever group she's in front of that day. And because she panders so much, no one really believes her.

[AgerolanAmerican]

21. He only needs one win

and that's for the FBI to recommend an indictment before the convention, a prospect that grows more and more likely by the day.

[RandySF]

24. Is that all you have left to hope for?

That a right wing story comes true?

[AgerolanAmerican]

25. Well, no

We can always hope that Hillary supporters sober up enough to recognize that they're driving us all off a cliff before it's too late.

But I'll take an indictment if that's the way it comes. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth, they say.

[Major Nikon]

29. Results...

On Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:52 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

He only needs one win
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1548204

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

This is a vile comment and doesn't belong on DU. We don't support our candidates by wishing indictments on the opposition. Is this a democratic board or what?

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:58 PM, and the Jury voted 2-5 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Agree with alerter.
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Logically, there is nothing wrong with the post.
Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Nowhere in those comments does it say "wish" or anything remotely suggesting that. Being duplicitous with your alert comments is a sure way to get leave it votes.

[AgerolanAmerican]

32. Interesting

So some Hillary fan tried to bait me, and failed at it due to too many people having common sense?

[jillan]

30. He is down approx 300 delegates.