What changes after tonight? Not much

[UMTerp01]

I absolutely agree that each state and each voter needs to have its say, but what really changes after tonight? Not much that I can see. I don't see the narrative changing. I don't see the numbers changing much. Hillary's win in Louisiana will offset any gains that Bernie made in KS and NE and the narrative that Bernie can't win in diverse states and can't win with Black voters will also be there. So what exactly changes after tonight? It feels like it essentially will be a wash. Am I wrong?

[griffi94]

1. are you sure

this isn't the start of of Bernami

[mvd]

2. Hillary was expected to win LA. Not a big deal

We Sanders supporters still need to keep up the effort in MI and other big states. Winning NE and KS shows his support is remaining strong.

[awake]

3. Hillary's "Big Mo" is a bit deflated having lost 2 midwest states

Bernie is showing that He can win the states we need in the fall while most of Hillary's win come in the south which the GOP owns.

[Barack_America]

8. 4. MN and OK too.

[awake]

11. ya I was just talking about tonight

[Nonhlanhla]

18. I realize that's the Bernie camp talking point

But the reality is that Hillary is winning southern states with the black vote, and the black vote is absolutely crucial to the Democratic nominee. So you might as well turn the argument around and say that Hillary is winning a more crucial segment of the Democratic Party, since black voters are far more of a solid Dem voting block than whites are (indeed, most white people vote Republican).

[awake]

19. Show me where you got the information that "most white people vote Republican"

the fact that most Republicans are white does not mean that most whites vote for Republicans.

[Nonhlanhla]

22. See link below

White vote, including Hispanics:
2012: 44 Obama, 56 Romney
2008: 45 Obama, 55 McCain
2004: 44 Kerry, 56 Bush
2000: 43 Gore, 55 Bush

When you count only non-Hispanic whites, the numbers generally shift by one percentage point in favor of the Republican candidate.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/139880/election-polls-presidential-vote-groups.aspx

[whatchamacallit]

4. As a Califonian, I don't give a rat's ass what's in your crystal ball

We're playing to the buzzer.

[AtomicKitten]

7. Hear, hear. We don't vote until June 7th.

[UMTerp01]

9. What crystal ball?

I wasn't trying to imply that I had one. Just seems like tonight is par for the course. Bernie wins in overwhelming white states. Hillary wins in more diverse states. Bernie's wins in KS and NE are wiped out by Hillary's win in LA. What essentially changes? My state doesn't vote until the end of April and the writing is usually on the wall by the time I get to vote, but I still vote. I agree it absolutely has to go until the last primary/caucus but it just feels like a rinse and repeat kind of night.

[whatchamacallit]

13. And I gather you believe every primary night will be the same?

[UMTerp01]

17. No but they will have a pattern

The patterns are there. The stats don't lie. Sanders is going to do very well in overwhelmingly white states. Hillary is going to do well with states that have more diversity and a sizeable Black vote. That has been the pattern so far and I don't see that changing.

[Old Codger]

15. She wins

So far in states that the repugs will carry in the GE so her so called advantage amounts to a pile of something that reeks along with the tactics of the DNC and camp sleeze

[DrDan]

21. and who won Neb and KS - "states that the repugs will carry in the GE"

[Old Codger]

23. so it

Balances out then..

[Funtatlaguy]

5. Oh the irony, really.

The black vote denied Hillary the nomination in 2008 and will give it to her in 2016.

For Bernie, No amount of money raised.
No wonderful commercials produced.
No huge white crowds at events can turn this around to get him the nomination.
If he continues to lose the black vote by a 85-15%, it is game over.

Will be interesting to see what happens in Detroit.
Will Hillary win the black vote there as big as she has in southern states? I bet she does.
As a Bernie guy, I hope I'm wrong. But, the polling just does not look good.

[Nonhlanhla]

20. I read an analysis some weeks ago

that said that when Obama won Iowa, it made black voters realize that he can actually win because he can win the white vote, and therefore many in S Carolina and elsewhere switched from Hillary to Obama. It was the first time they dared to hope that a black man could actually be elected president. With Bernie, if he had won Iowa (the analysis was before the start of the voting season), it would not help him in the same way with black voters, since him winning (or doing well) in Iowa would not be that meaningful (since a white guy winning there isn't surprising). The fact is that only Obama could take AA loyalty away from Hillary, given the Clintons' long history in the AA community. The analysis made perfect sense to me. Iowa helped propell Obama to victory in S Carolina, but coming close in Iowa and winning NH handily had no effect on the black vote for Bernie.

[SidDithers]

6. Hillary's delegate lead gets bigger...nt

Sid

[awake]

14. If you really believe that you should show a bit more kindness

to Bernie supporters because you will need our help in the fall. No need for the fork if he is really done.

[Agnosticsherbet]

10. Most likely, Clinton will walk away with more delegates than Sanders.

What will probably change is that Sanders will fall slightly more behind.

[Motown_Johnny]

12. Not much, just the number of total contests won switches a little.

The total popular vote count changes, but it means very little.

Hillary will probably pick up more delegates than Bernie does. It gives Bernie a reason to try to swing SDs from the states he wins. It also gives his supporters more reason to donate. The better the argument he can make for winning the more he can tap those small donors. Hillary has already hit up all her big donors and has been made a laughing stock for trying to solicit $1.00 donations.


The coronation has been delayed yet again, that is really the one big change.

That has to be frustrating.

[mvd]

16. I just made my first donation recently

Proud to put my money where my mouth has been.