Paris Attacks Could Be ISIS Death Throes by Marc Simms

[HuckleB]

https://rebelnews.com/marcsimms/guerre-sans-frontieres-paris-attacks-could-be-isis-death-throes/

"...

Previously, I have written that while ISIS may opportunistically promote terrorist attacks in western countries, it would prefer to focus its efforts on the war in Syria and Iraq, at least for now. So what has changed?

...

This is only one of many recent embarrassing defeats for ISIS. Over the summer, a joint offensive between the Free Syrian Army and Kurdish YPG took the strategically vital town of Tell Aybad and have managed to hold the town despite numerous attempts by ISIS forces to retake it. The newly formed Syrian Democratic Forces – an alliance of militias from the YPG and Free Syrian Army who are specifically targeting ISIS – launched an offensive in October against the Syrian town of Al-Hawl, which is situated in a strategic location on the border with Iraq. The SDF captured the town and 500 square miles of territory, denying ISIS what was formerly a major stronghold. In a mostly symbolic but still significant victory, Syrian Army forces in combination with Iranian and Russian forces retook the Kweyris military airport earlier this month.

ISIS are isolated in terms of their alliances, as well. While there is a bewildering array of rebel forces – with varying motivations and state backers – and a number of groups and nations backing Assad, ISIS stands curiously alone from the crowd. While I have noted suspicions before that Turkey and ISIS have a closer relationship than either would be willing to admit, it is still mostly an arrangement of convenience, not of military necessity or shared goals and mutual respect. Equally, while the Gulf states may have had a hand in sponsoring ISIS’s early forays into Syria, it now represents more of a threat to the groups they openly back than an opportunity to be exploited. ISIS is also contentious within the larger Islamic radical scene, with many of the “old-guard” jihadists and preachers lending their support to Al-Qaeda rather than their upstart rivals.

...

I don’t have all the answers, or the solutions to defeating ISIS. But a good first step is not reacting as expected, not breathing life into what could well be a dying organization by lashing out, harming and attacking those who are fleeing the very violence that group has caused.

..."


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A good read, with much to consider, IMO.

[BootinUp]

1. Excellent article, but why is it in this forum? nt

[HuckleB]

2. Oh, crap. I thought I was in GD. Thanks!

[DetlefK]

3. ISIS' military position is surely getting worse by every day:

- They have relocated their families from Raqqa, Syria, (which is currently regularly being bombed) to IIRC Mosul, Iraq. Which means, they regard the russian bombings as a serious threat. IMO, this is also part of a long-term plan to evacuate Raqqa if need be.

- A significant part of their budget comes from taxing locals... and those people are fleeing.

- Any technologically modern society needs specialists like doctors and engineers to run... and those people are also fleeing from ISIS. And the recruits ISIS gets don't have the skills they want.

- ISIS is living in a religious fairy-tale world where they first conquer the Middle-East, then the army of Satan ("Rome" aka the West) challenges them to an end-times battle, which ISIS wins and then Happy End. Right now, they have troubles with point 1 of their plan: Conquering the Middle-East, which disputes their divine claims on a religious level...