Could I talk about my NFL team here

[JonLP24]

Don't intend it as any sort of gloating as I try to fly-under-radar when it comes to that short of thing.

Can't find much luck finding discussions online for that sort of thing, the ESPN has three columns attached to the AZ/Dallas recap all written from the Cowboys perspective. Even the recap including "running game wasn't the same without Romo" -- this was up against a D that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Frank Gore in week 6 of 2013 who was the first 100-yard rusher since.. Frank Gore the season before that. They still got him 79-yards off of 19 carries. If you're interested in a football discussion from a Cardinals perspective, here it is.

Both of my football teams lost their only title shot in my lifetime with a TD scored with a dozen or so seconds remaining so I know they haven't accomplished anything except go 7-1.

That said, this is the most impressive Cardinals team I've ever seen. In 2008, I agree Warner>Palmer but this team actually has a ground game with an explosive back who is very underrated as a receiver. They actually did run the ball with more success & attempts in NFC playoffs starting Edgerrin James after hardly using him in favor of Tim Hightower in the regular season. Fitzgerald is still with the team. Anquan Boldin is/was better than Michael Floyd but not quite the burner. I think John Brown's 4.3 speed and big play, game winning TDs edges him over Steve Breaston. It isn't even contest which offensive line is better(2014).

Same with the defense, especially the secondary. They had among the league's worst pass defense the year they went to the Super Bowl while this version has shut down artist Peterson. Antonio Cromartie has came up huge the last 2 games, they also have Tyriun(?) Mathieu and new comer in safety Buchannon who made the stop against Dallas on 4th down. You could make a case the 2009 was better than the 2008 version because that is one the unit starting coming alive as a run stuffing unit. Chris Johnson and Frank Gore had huge games but those types started becoming more rare.

This is all great considering the adversity they faced this year. They lost their best inside linebacker (Dansby to Cleveland), outside linebacker (Washington - repeat PED violator), interior rusher (Dockett to season ending injury), and their best outside rusher Abaraham (concussion issues) from last season. Calais Campbell who is great had to go without him for a few games after he was chop blocked against Denver. They also had to go 3 games without Palmer.

This sort of excitement may seem strange but I have never seen 7-1 next to Cardinals or seen them in 1st place in conference this late in the season. Even though I recognized the talent, I still didn't expect that kind of fortune but aside from the ugly second half at Denver they have done an excellent job closing vs San Diego, New York, Washington, Philadelphia, and now Dallas.

Andre Ellington's contribution to this team's success is massive. Absolutely deadly receiver for a running back.

[Boom Sound 416]

1. You have the best coach in the league too

[LeftOfSelf-Centered]

2. One of the title shots you're referring to

isn't by any chance the '97 Rose Bowl? Boy, that one hurt.

Can't say much about the Cardinals; the highest point they ever reached when I was living in the valley was that playoff win over the Cowboys with Plummer at QB in the late 90s.

[JonLP24]

3. That year was thrilling

Correct on the David Boston TD. I was relatively new as a sports fan, watching the Rose Bowl coverage on 3TV all December with my hopes up higher than they ever been only to have the biggest of all letdowns. Had an effect as I don't seem to arrogant certainty in my team's success I notice a few people do with theirs.

The last 3 games ended by comebacks and game ending winning field goals. 2 at the last second, the other in OT.

I remember they almost erased a monster halftime deficit nearly tying it at the end but I thought Dallas pass interfered Frank Sanders in the end zone on their last drive to lose 35-28 I think. My thought was "if only if they had replay", little did I know in the future that play wouldn't have been reviewed.

I remember going from rooting for a Minnesota - Denver Super Bowl to suddenly.. Cardinals in the playoffs?? I'm sure you understand why 7-1 is like the greatest thing ever when New England, Denver, or previous Indy fans may not understand the big deal which it isn't, all they've done this season is go 7-1. Still 8 more games and knockout round tournament to go but talented-wise, they are talented. Not as good as front 7 as last season but make up for it w/ Ellington as the feature back and healthy Oline which includes the 1st round pick guard from last year's draft who suffered a season ending injury in pre-season. John Brown looks good too and so does Palmer looking more comfortable in Arians system.

[LeftOfSelf-Centered]

4. That was indeed an amazing year.

I had seats on the 50 yard line just a couple rows back from the Sun Devil bench; the student section had killer seats back then (lower tier, all along the south side of the stadium) and we always bought ours in the spring as soon as they went on sale.

I remember walking into the Nebraska game just hoping we'd hold our own and that nobody would get hurt. When Poole scored the TD and then we started piling on a couple of safeties the whole place went insane. I barely had any voice left by the time it was over.

I've wanted to rewatch that game ever since then, but it doesn't seem to be available anywhere. It might be on Hulu, but it won't let me watch it from Europe...

I didn't actually see the Rose Bowl as I was home for Christmas break, and they didn't show it in Europe. I had to get the news on the internet the next day...

I've been pretty much following only College Football since I came home. I never really got into the NFL, because I never developed a connection to any team (probably in part due to the fact the Cardinals were consistently terrible throughout the 90s).

[JonLP24]

5. I had seats at the north end zone for 96 ASU season

I didn't get a ticket for the Nebraska game (same story w/ the Cal game) and remember my grandpa coming in and out of the bedroom expressing disbelief and shock. He couldn't keep going on and on that he can't believe this is happening, I didn't get it at the time and thought he was being strange but years later I came to appreciate that victory more. They were defending champions on a 26 game winning streak and were shut out. He was a neutral too, followed the game but didn't really have a team except for Groesbeck High where he still had the small Texas town home paper delivered to Arizona. He was also the biggest fan of the Leonard Davis draft pick, lineman from Texas were his favorite athletes.

I actually used to have tapes from the season but they were mostly partials. I have tape of second half against USC, UCLA after the entire comeback happened, the entire Cal game(laugh when I re-watched it a couple years ago hearing the commentator laughed when he said "I know Plummer is having the season he is having, heisman candidate but Pat Barnes will have a better pro career" suggested he is more pro ready or whatever abilities he was trying to sugggest. Also had the Oregon & Arizona tapes.

I did find a replay of that game on Hulu I think but this back in 2011. I noted all the Ahman Green fumbles which was funny considering it was fumbles that ended up defining his pro career.

That year was special, it would pretty difficult to replicate. Even if another team sweeps their season or wins a national title, it would still be hard to match the atmosphere at Mill Avenue in those days.

Had season tickets for Cardinals the following year but things got ugly quick, got beer spilled on me first game I attended. I remember the stadium cheered when Kent Graham went down against Tennessee which was Jake Plummer's first action but the Oilers were already well ahead. I remember the next week they went with Graham but can't remember the reason why but he went back out there on the road at Veterans Stadium at the 1-yard line and ran the offense to score the TD to send it to OT. An intentional grounding killed their chances in OT.

Though I could see how hard it would be to be a fan, no matter how close to 8-8 they got or no matter how what there were just always awful aspects to their game notably rarely running and unsuccessful when they tried. Also the fire sale at the end of 2002 season sucked out a lot of passion. I didn't start til becoming like I was until about the 2007 season. I remember when Green Bay lost there early in the season in 2003, considering all the players they let go there was 0-16 speculation from the national media and Chris Berman blamed the loss on the weather. It was too hot for Farve, I couldn't stop laughing considering the advantage Green Bay in winter has.

[bigharry]

6. Your team

looks good! Sorry about your QB1. I hope Dallas sees them in the playoffs. Just because I hope Dallas makes the playoffs!

[Kaleva]

7. Next Sunday, Arizona and Detroit battle it out for top seed in the NFC

[navarth]

8. that didn't go too well.

@*#@&^#*@^%#@#*&@@^&$#!!!!!

[geek tragedy]

9. BIG game in Seattle next week.

No clear favorite in the NFC right now. Cards win, and it'll look pretty likely they'll host the Patriots.

[JonLP24]

10. Cards don't have a weak spot left on their schedule

Of the top 6 teams in the NFC by best record, Arizona has wins over 4 of them. If Philadelphia finishes this season 6-0, Arizona would need to go 4-2 to grab one of the top 2 seeds which is crucial. Same story for the threats for the #1 seed - Detroit & Dallas.

The Cardinals would have to finish 1-5 in order to be leaped by those 7-3 teams. Green Bay remains a decent chance due to possible tiebreaker in their favor.

Importance of seeding
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/29/week-17-n-f-l-probabilities-importance-of-seeding/?_r=0

It cracks me up when the national media labels them "not contenders". Just having the #1 seed makes them a contender regardless of ability.

On of that, the reasons given are flawed. They point to no Carson Palmer, Stanton probably knows the offense better than him. He has tendency to get rattled in the 2nd half if his right reads are slightly off target or throws it to a defender who abandoned his assignment to jump the slant.

When analysts say their pass defense isn't very good, they point to yards per game. They started the season against Rivers, Eli Manning, Colin Kaepernick, Peyton Manning (they pass D did bad but so many plays.. Manning visualized the throws before the defense could even react). Washington is one of the better pass offenses due to playmaker Desean Jackson -- no other receiver gave their D fits more than him -- his speed makes NFL players look slow. Foles had 411 yards but on 62 attempts.

Arizona is currently allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt which is tied for New England(13th). It is lower than typical, they were tied with San Francisco last season at 5th at 6.5. Regression to the mean implies that Arizona will drift back to overall form, they have the same plus more talented defenders as last season. They're also the only team that has recorded more interceptions than pass touchdowns given up.

If Arizona manages to either win a NFC crown or Super Bowl -- it will because of Andre Ellington (analysts downgrade him because of his 3.4 and few TDs but his ability as a receiver cannot be overstated. Besides, his speed gives him the potential to easily turn a few missed tackles into a 200-yard game. One thing that helps opponents his Arians has tendency to go away from Ellington inside the 30 and 10 yard lines. One thing, Ellington has been fighting an ankle injury this entire season.

The finishing blow would be Andre Ellington going down. He is match-up nightmare for opposing defenses.

Ellington & Secondary will be the reason Arizona wins a Super Bowl if they manage to do so.

(different story if Stanton goes down leaving third string fastest QB -- class of 2014)

[geek tragedy]

11. they were for real last year, they're certainly for real this year.

Who will come out of the NFC will really depend on who gets hot in the post-season. Cardinals, Packers, Cowboys, and if they get in Seahawks and Niners have to be all considered legit threats (DET and PHI notsomuch). If AZ manages to beat SEA on the road, that'll cement their #1 seed and knock Seattle out of playoff contention. What's not to like?

Much more wide open than the AFC, where it's New England and KC in one tier vs a bunch of chump teams that have no shot (IN, DEN etc). Though MIA and Pitt could make some noise if they get in--I'd much rather face Peyton Manning than Ben Roethlisberger in the postseason.

[JonLP24]

12. I wouldn't rule out Detroit

That defense is for real especially on the front 7. Calvin Johnson & Golden Tate are excellent targets and Stafford has shown he can efficiently move the ball down field.

If by "hot" you mean win the necessary playoff games to advance I agree. The bye week advantage is crucial.

On the AFC, I'm not sure I'd be quick to dismiss other team's chances. Single-elimination bracket but Denver is balanced unlike last season, Miami, Cleveland, and to a lesser extent Cincinnati are well balanced as well. Indianapolis is heavy on the offense side. Home field will be crucial in the AFC considering the top seeds play outdoors while most of the top seeds in the NFC play in domes.

I'll add New Orleans scares me & Carolina wouldn't be easy either. Atlanta's receivers are the only thing that scares me, Arizona seems to match-up with Matt Ryan pretty well.

[geek tragedy]

13. I'll remain skeptical about the Lions until they prove me wrong I guess.

Denver, I think that argument could have been made three weeks ago that they're a balanced and legit contender. But they've been exposed as a very soft, finesse, front-running team with a very bad offensive line and a quarterback who can't handle pressure or make sideline throws. That, and they're down to 1 legitimate receiver with J Thomas and Sanders injured, crap running backs (top two are injured0 and a crap placekicker. They have a solid defense, but their offense is prone to a lot of three-and-outs and turnovers with 1:30 drives. Had they been playing anyone other than the Raiders two weeks ago, they'd be sitting at 6-4 on a three game losing streak. I see them finishing 9-7 and not even making the playoffs (losses to MIA, KC, SD, CIN, wins against BUF and OAK).

Miami is a team that looks designed to win the playoffs, built around running and a great defense. But they may not make the playoffs.

CIN--like DET a team that doesn't win the games it should and needs to. Skeptical until they prove otherwise.

Home field in AFC will be KC and NE, the two most dominant home teams in the conference, which are both built around running and defense. If DEN can't be competitive on the road against St. Louis, no way it can beat those teams at home--the game at NE was not an anomaly but rather a pretty accurate reflection of the quality of the two teams. PIT could be scary and go on a road roll, but they're just as likely to lay an egg and miss the playoffs (whupped Indy but lost to the NYJ and almost lost to TEN).

New Orleans and Carolina are scary because of what they did last year, but they haven't shown much signs of life this year. The entire NFC south is a miserable group of underachievers.

[JonLP24]

14. What about New England's game at KC?

Road games trip teams up, especially 3 road games in a row. No reason to overreact to short term results but Foxboro would be tough, especially on the western teams.

Carolina clearly isn't the same team but look at the narrow defeats of New Orleans. Arians says he evaluates personnel, not records which is the correct approach. New Orleans is still showing high efficiency, a lot depends on the future but that is one team I would not look forward to playing.

Cincinnati fell off from the level the way they were playing at. A year ago, I would have been thrilled at 7-3 but home field & bye significantly improves your chances. Especially if you're west coast team traveling to Foxboro (or anywhere on the EST for that matter--what is Denver's record at Miami?)

[geek tragedy]

15. September games don't give good insight

into playoff prospects.

When it gets to mid-season, teams are who they are.

If you suck in September, you have time to make adjustments. If you suck in November, you just suck.

NE made the necessary adjustments and has been untouchable since then.


Denver 2014= NY Giants 2012.

CIN could go belly-up, or they could get on a roll. Hard team to read.

[JonLP24]

16. Baltimore stumbled into the playoffs as badly as you could

I can't count how many times I've seen experts overreact to short-term results, it is even worse following prime time games. Cardinals started 2008 7-3, I think then stumbled to a 9-7 finish. One of those games was a blowout in Foxboro where it all started with an early mistake (which ends up counting as 3 in Foxboro). The season was noted for the match-ups against the NFC & AFC East.

Side story to that, what wasn't mentioned was on the flight back home from Foxboro they went back to pads and training camp mode. They went back to Edgerrin James as the feature back and started handing it off more.

Now with Flacco among the ranks of Montana & Warner for highest single postseason yards per pass attempt -- the peak of Flacco's career. So peaking at the right time was certainly at play here, especially against the #1 & #2 pass defenses in back-to-back weeks from that year. But there was nothing at the end of the season to suggest otherwise.

The 2011 Giants played poorly in November & December. The year before that the Packers did the same but were blessed facing Atlanta in the following round who at the time was average or below average in every area besides the run game. Their toughest opponent in pass & rush defense was Philadelphia in the Wild Card round. Packers had below average rushing but in that game they used a 3 back formation which was very effective.

On the subject of the Patriots, no other team finishes regular seasons like they do in recent memory and it doesn't mean much success.

--------

The problem with overreacting to short-term results, though you pointing to some offensive line troubles (St. Louis front 7 can make lines look bad though) like Kansas City in 2011 which spelled trouble for the Packers offensive line.

Also the sample sizes in the NFL are too small and few games favors true underdogs, the NFL balances this with the bye week which stacks the odds heavily in their favor, including 1 game at the home team's location. There are several teams capable of beating the Cardinals as they are capable of beating anyone (Peyton Manning, Brees, Rodgers--would scare the hell out of me) but FGs instead of TDs, turnovers, bad bouncers or a high variance strategy which gives true underdogs a better chance of winning games (it also increases their chances of getting blown out).

My point is, especially if Denver is afforded home games -- they can easily right the ship and based on regression to the mean, things drift to the beginning or overall form.