Deebo Samuel dealt to the Washington Commanders

[True Dough]

For a fifth-round draft pick! Because he's in decline and he's only guaranteed to remain on contract for one year. Here's hoping it's at least a healthy year.

Samuel's production has declined in recent years. And after posting an absurd 1,405 receiving yards on 3.1 yards per route run (along with 365 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns) in 2021, he hasn't approached those numbers. He's coming off a poor 2024 in which he recorded only 670 receiving yards on 1.8 yards per route run. It's not unreasonable to wonder if we will see Samuel, 29, come close to his peak again...

Samuel appears to be a nice fit in Washington's offense; he provides another threat close to the line of scrimmage and can complement Daniels' running prowess. Washington's 4.6 expected YAC per reception last season wasn't amazing, but it was better than the 49ers' 4.3 (sixth worst). And 11% of Washington's wide receiver targets came on screens (third highest). You'd expect more next season with Samuel surely receiving many.

On the other hand, if the Commanders enter the season with Samuel as their No. 2 wide receiver, that would be a weakness -- and I would think less of this deal. I'll grade under the assumption that the Commanders jumped at this opportunity with the intention to add another solid receiver later in the offseason (either in free agency or early in the draft). Many potential veterans could be available via trade or free agency, such as Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Davante Adams (assuming he's cut), Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs. But some of those players are far from guaranteed to hit the market and none is perfect.

That leads to a big question: Isn't $17.6 million and a fifth-round pick for a one-year rental of a No. 3 wide receiver a lot to pay? You bet. But the circumstances dictate the Commanders' aggression to add playmakers, and Samuel provides offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury the ability to add wrinkles to what was already a successful offense in 2024.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/43957885/2025-nfl-free-agency-grades-signings-trades-latest-best-worst-deals-draft-outlook

[lark]

1. Oh no! Think the niners made a mistake, but hey, it's football.

[Auggie]

3. Samuel requested the trade. It was the right move -- his best years are behind him.

Biggest myopic mistake football teams can make is to hold onto pro-bowl players past their prime, especially in the age of the salary cap.

The rushing attempts in 2021-2023 were awesome, but defenses adjusted, and he lost a step in 2024. Shanahan and company needed to develop new plays anyhow.

[underpants]

2. Big price tag but getting him for a 5th seems like a steal

If he’s anywhere near his potential he’s a headache for defenses especially if he’s lined up in the backfield. His best year was when SF used him as such. He’s more durable than I thought. He’s starting 15 games each of the last three years.

Coopr Cupp isn’t durable. Bad luck for him. As was pointed out here, his injury in 2022 totally ended any chance the Rams had of repeating.

[Auggie]

4. 49ers will absorb a dead-money salary cap charge of $31.55 million

Samuel, who was scheduled to count $15.86 million against the cap with a $15.4 million option bonus due on March 22.

Before the trade, the 49ers had $50.7 million salary cap space, the 12th-most in the NFL. That figure will now fall to about $35 million.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/sports/49ers/article/49ers-trade-star-receiver-deebo-samuel-commanders-20196672.php

Don't forget that he pushed long snapper Taybor Pepper in the throat on the sideline during a win at Tampa Bay in November. In December, a day after a win over the Bears, Samuel said on social media that a slump in which he’d managed just 97 total yards in his previous four games was due to a lack of targets. And then in December Samuel followed his public venting by gaining just 19 total yards and dropping a would-be, 29-yard touchdown pass in a 12-6 loss to the Rams that essentially ended the 49ers’ playoff hopes in a 6-11 season.

It was time.

[True Dough]

5. Fair

Just a matter of finding out whether a change in scenery will do him good and if he still has something in the tank at age 29, despite his recent decline.