2021 NFL draft (predictions, updates, etc.)

[True Dough]

The much ballyhooed draft kicks off tomorrow night. Are you excited?

Draft Order - Round 1
1) Jacksonville Jaguars
2) New York Jets
3) San Francisco 49ers (from Miami via Houston)
4) Atlanta Falcons
5) Cincinnati Bengals
6) Miami Dolphins (from Philadelphia)
7) Detroit Lions
8) Carolina Panthers
9) Denver Broncos
10) Dallas Cowboys
11) New York Giants
12) Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami via San Francisco)
13) Los Angeles Chargers
14) Minnesota Vikings
15) New England Patriots
16) Arizona Cardinals
17) Las Vegas Raiders
18) Miami Dolphins
19) Washington Football Team
20) Chicago Bears
21) Indianapolis Colts
22) Tennessee Titans
23) New York Jets (from Seattle)
24) Pittsburgh Steelers
25) Jacksonville Jaguars (from Rams)
26) Cleveland Browns
27) Baltimore Ravens
28) New Orleans Saints
29) Green Bay Packers
30) Buffalo Bills
31) Baltimore Ravens (from Kansas City)
32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

[True Dough]

1. Rankings (top 22 players)

[True Dough]

2. Rankings 23-46

[Best_man23]

3. Three QBs first

Then in that following 10 minutes I will be chewing my nails off waiting to see what Atlanta does. I'm hoping Pitts falls to Miami at 6. I do think Joe Burrow is going to make a strong case for the Bengals to draft Chase.

[True Dough]

4. If Pitts lives up to expectations

He might be the best TE and #6 pick in NFL history. But there's a lot of years ahead to bear that out.

Some analysts have Pitts ranked as high as #2, but I can't believe that the Jets are prepared to take him.

[Best_man23]

6. It would shock me if the Jets passed on a QB at 2

But then again, we're talking the Jets here, so...

[True Dough]

8. You're right

the Jets ALWAYS find a way to fumble.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

20. Burrow needs offensive linemen to prevent him...

... from getting killed out there.

The Bengals owner will probably pressure management to pick a WR instead, though.

[RockRaven]

5. More curious/interested than excited.

I don't follow college football at all, so I find all the pre draft talk a bit much -- kind of like a friend or family member telling you minute details of their favorite hobby/activity which you've never even done once yourself.

I just want to know which players went to which teams. Then I can learn about the new players which are more relevant -- local team(s), in the division, whatever.

The way the NFL has drawn the draft out over now 3 f-ing days earns a big thumbs down from me. Even if I were a big draftnik, I'd still hate it. A tiny bit of actually substantive content on day one starts the whole thing off on a bad note. You feel the manipulation.

[True Dough]

7. Have you heard of Trevor Lawrence, at least?

He's a QB and heavily favored to be the #1 pick. Many are describing him as a generational talent.

[RockRaven]

10. LOL. Yes. I follow NFL news, just not college football. So I've been hearing about him for years.

They've been talking about him since he was a freshman. Hard to avoid hearing about him.

And good for him, going number one. Sounds like a good guy. Too bad Urban Meyer is such a piece of shit, and the Jags have such a un-promising recent management history. Even if he wins he loses by being associated with Meyer for the rest of his life.

I can't muster the time or energy to learn about all these players before the draft when a) I'm starting from zero, and b) most will go to teams I'm indifferent to and half won't even play much -- ever. If they are on teams I am interested in (love or hate) I'll learn about them after the draft, and if they're good pros I'll learn about them by watching them play. So the draft is more of a focused-curiosity inducing exercise for me than the fulfillment of years of following their college careers.

[True Dough]

12. And who is your team?

I missed it if you mentioned it.

I kind of have allegiance to the Broncos, but also wouldn't mind seeing the Browns finally get a Lombardi trophy, or witness the Bengals get their shit together again. Hopefully Joe Burrow's surgically-repaired knee is going to hold up fine for many years, but he's still going to need a lot of help at WR and on the O-line.

I agree with you about Urban Meyer. He's a turd!

[RockRaven]

13. Grew up on the my local teams -- 49ers and Raiders, but the Raiders left... Twice.

So now it's the 49ers (for nostalgia and by default) and by extension the rest of the NFCW that I follow closest. I've got relatives in LA, Phoenix, and Seattle so we all get to talk trash to each other about football. I need to know what those teams are up to just to defend myself.

[True Dough]

14. And what are your feelings on Garoppolo?

Are you hoping he hangs around for another year or would you prefer to part ways?

[RockRaven]

19. I think the lesson from last year isn't that Jimmy is no good, it's that if you have Jimmy you need

a better 2nd QB -- because the other guy is going to have to play. But really that is true with just about any team. Players always get hurt. And with a 17 game season now it's even more likely the 2nd guy is going to see the field. I know there aren't 32 good starting QBs most years never mind 64 of them, but if a team can get 2 starting-quality QBs and they can afford it based on the rest of their roster, maybe they should.

As far as play goes, Jimmy is pretty good. Sort of Alex Smith-like in so far as when the team around him is playing well, so does he, and when the team is failing so does he. He knows what he's supposed to do, and does it... Mostly. And then there are about two terrible-decision throws and two wide-open non-throws every game where you throw up your hands and ask "WTF is he doing?!"

They've got a pretty good roster this year. Big holes at CB and WR (starters good, no depth though). I think they should prioritize trying to win this year, which means keeping Jimmy and the rookie. Their cap situation allows it even if it is not ideal. Start Jimmy, and wait for an injury before starting the rookie. Or start the rookie and have a ridiculously overpaid backup for one season because it gives you the depth you need to not lose games due to QB injury.

Every time I see a team's fan base griping about their QB or coach, saying get rid of that guy, I ask "and replace him with who?" It's all well and good to decide a guy isn't who you want, but you also need to identify who is better AND available. I'm not sure who is available that makes the roster better than 3rd overall pick plus Jimmy. It's potentially awkward and unnecessarily expensive, but if they win it will be worth it.

That said, the decision probably depends on who they draft. Seems like conventional wisdom is that Jones is ready to start right away, and Lance is not. And because unused salary cap does roll over, having a conventionally small backup QB salary might be a priority if the pick is Jones, even if the yet unnamed replacement is inferior to Garoppolo.

[True Dough]

21. What if the 49ers land Deshaun Watson

He was radioactive over the past month or two due to his off-field behavior, but he has apparently seeking to settle those lawsuits and still get traded. San Fran is rumored to be interested...

Link to tweet

[RockRaven]

23. I think Watson remains radioactive for a couple of years, even after he settles and even if there

is no criminal investigation or charges. Shanahan and Lynch ought to have learned from Reuben Foster not to look past bad behavior because it eventually hurts the team.

[JT45242]

9. Justin fields dropping evidence that people don't know what they are talking about

Pro football focus had him as better than lawrence after the 2019 season. They also say that the one thing their rating system shows is that college accuracy rate (not completion rate) is the best predictor of pro success.

Allen in Buffalo is the first qb to actually improve in accuracy substantially after college.

Fields had a 'bad' game against indiana. All 5 starters out on the o line. 3 more starters (depending on the alignment 11/12/13/14) out for covid.

You would think after watching the super bowl this year, that people would realize that even patrick mahomet needs a functional offensive line to play well.

The D2 guy with less than 20 starts is the next Akili Smith -- bust city. The back up from Alabama (mac jones) couldn't be accurate with no defenders on his pro day. If he was all that and a bag of chips, he could have won the job earlier. He reminds me of every other bama qb under Sabin...a career clipboard holder. Again PFF says accuracy rates in college predict pro success.

The guy from BYU -- another dude who never played against future nfl defensive lines or defensive backs...might not be a total bust but more likely a bust than an all pro.

[True Dough]

11. Fields is a talent, without question

It's going to be interesting to see where he lands. He could go third (sounds unlikely, but who knows) or he could go as low as 10th? Whichever team lands him should see dividends from having faith in him.

[True Dough]

15. Saints reportedly trying to move up

Link to tweet

[getting old in mke]

16. I will laugh so hard

if the whole SF Jones vs Lance at #3 debate that has filled draft discussions turns out to be a total, total smoke screen and the 49ers are really still happy with Jimmy G. They are, after all, only a year from the Superbowl after the 2019 season and were very injured as a team last year.

And take Kyle Pitts with the pick and use him and Kittle in ways not seen before with two TEs.

[True Dough]

17. I'm not sure who you are

but you write like some fantasy football champion "know-it-all".

[getting old in mke]

18. Ha!

[True Dough]

22. Trey Lance now the betting favorite to be the 3rd overall pick

Link to tweet

[True Dough]

24. Under an hour to go until first pick

[True Dough]

25. To no one's surprise

Trevor Lawrence goes first.

[True Dough]

26. Zach Wilson goes to the Jets

and he will never be heard from again within a year or two. Poor fella.

[True Dough]

27. And Trey Lance is the answer

to the 49ers mystery at pick #3, which they moved up to get.

[Auggie]

34. Smartest QB in the draft? According to the 49ers ...

Link to tweet

Lance was vetted up the wazoo by the 49ers. He should be great.

[True Dough]

36. As the French would say

He's "Trey smart!"

[True Dough]

28. Atlanta chooses

TE Kyle Pitts, which was expected.

[True Dough]

29. Bengals go for

Burrow's buddy Ja'Marr Chase from LSU. They had chemistry in college.

[True Dough]

30. Dolphins go for WR Jaylen Waddle

a target for Tua.

[True Dough]

31. Detroit selects OT Penei Sewell

with pick #7.

[True Dough]

32. #8 is CB Jaycee Horn

going to Carolina.

[True Dough]

33. Broncos choose DB Patrick Surtain

and not a QB!

[True Dough]

35. First trade of the night!

Eagles and Cowboys make a deal that move Philly up to #10 pick.

[True Dough]

37. Eagles use their upgraded pick to take

WR and Heisman Trophy winner Devonta Smith.

[True Dough]

38. Da Bears trade up to pick #11

Make a deal with the Giants.

[True Dough]

39. And Justin Fields is

is gone to Chicago at #11!

[Auggie]

40. I'm reminded of the QBs from the 2012 draft

TOP TEN:
001) Andrew Luck
002) Robert Griffin III
008) Ryan Tannehill
022) Brandon Weeden
057) Brock Osweiler
075) Russell Wilson
088) Nick Foles
102) Kirk Cousins
185) Ryan Lindley
243) B. J. Coleman

Wilson at #6 and Cousins at #8. Funny how that turns out. Cleveland managed to select the biggest bust. Of course.

[True Dough]

41. What did you think of the Browns

picking CB Greg Newsome II at #26?

[Auggie]

42. Don't know anything about this guy ...

Cleveland needed big help in the secondary so from that perspective it's a good pick. He's really raw, young, and suffered some injury, but that's okay with the Browns.

[True Dough]

43. Well, your Brownies have three picks tonight

so we'll see if they can impress you.

[Auggie]

44. Impressed? I wouldn't know what the hell to do.

I have faith in the Browns new front office. They won't pick another flake like Johnny Manziel.

49ers too.