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Can Pizza Predict the Start of the Iran War? - William Spaniel
According to a popular theory, you can predict when a war will start by tracking the number of pizzas ordered from restaurants close to the Pentagon. Today, we look at the accuracy of the claim in the shadow of a potential war against Iran. It offers the opportunity to learn two broader lessons in statistical and strategic reasoning: why not to select on the dependent variable and the usefulness of manipulable metrics.
0:00 The Pentagon Pizza Theory
1:16 The Logic of the Theory
4:54 Problems with the Theory
6:56 Selecting on the Dependent Variable
9:54 Goodhart's Law
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