Modeling Policy Changes in CyberSecurity with First Order Lag - Russian Cyberthreat's

[mikelewis]

Why Cyber Warfare Doesn’t Happen Overnight

Just like tariffs don’t immediately raise prices at the store, cyber warfare doesn’t instantly explode the moment policies change. When governments ease up on enforcement, cybercriminals don’t immediately launch a wave of attacks. Instead, they scale up gradually—recruiting, testing new tools, and adjusting their tactics. The same happens in reverse: if a country cracks down on cybercrime, the attacks don’t stop instantly. It takes months—sometimes years—for enforcement to truly take effect.

Mathematically, this follows an exponential adjustment process. If cybercriminals are given more freedom, attacks slowly rise toward a new peak. If enforcement tightens, they gradually decline. In both cases, it takes about 12 to 18 months for the full effect to play out. This delay is why today’s policy decisions shape the cyber threat landscape of the future—not just what happens next week.

So, when you hear about governments shifting their stance on cyber enforcement, don’t expect an immediate explosion or shutdown of cybercrime. The real impact is a slow burn, taking months to fully unfold—just like how tariffs take time to hit your wallet.

How This Model Explains the Hidden Timeline of Cyber Warfare
What I’ve done is take a well-established mathematical concept—a first-order lag model—and apply it to cyber warfare. This model is commonly used to describe systems that don’t respond instantly to change, like how a new tax takes time to impact the economy or how a drug spreads in the bloodstream. By applying this to Russian cyber activity, I’ve shown that cyber threats don’t react immediately to policy shifts but instead follow a predictable, gradual adjustment process.

If cyber enforcement is removed, cybercriminals need time to scale up their attacks. They have to recruit hackers, buy or develop new tools, and test their methods before fully launching new operations. This results in an exponential increase in cyber activity over about 12 to 18 months. Conversely, if strict enforcement is introduced, cyber threats don’t disappear instantly. Hackers already have systems in place, and it takes months—sometimes years—to shut them down. This leads to a gradual decline in cybercrime over 12 to 24 months, rather than an immediate drop.

To prove this, I’ve used mathematical modeling to calculate the exact timeframe for cyber escalation or suppression. The model provides a way to predict how long it takes for policy changes to fully impact cyber threats. I’ve applied this to real-world scenarios, showing how cyber warfare evolves based on government decisions, enforcement efforts, and adaptation rates.

By doing this, I’ve essentially created a quantifiable way to measure the lag in cyber conflict, much like how we measure the lag in economic policies like tariffs. This approach gives policymakers and cybersecurity professionals a clear framework for understanding not just what will happen, but when it will happen—helping them plan and respond before attacks reach their peak.

If you are in law enforcement or study criminal justice, this new tool should help you in other areas as well. Feel free to contact me for help if you need a modification for your particular situation.

For a detailed method on how to model Law Enforcement Policy Saturation rates, I use Russian Cybercrime but it can obviously be adapted for anything.

https://qmichaellewis.blogspot.com/2025/03/like-pinch-of-tariffs-cyber-warfare-has.html

All I've done is modeled this system with a Time Delay. Think of a Railroad Engine. When it starts up, it takes time for the last car to move. That's all we are doing here... it's called First Order Lag. I first adapted it to look at the lag time for the tariffs but thought a good idea might be to look at what to expect out of Russia now that we are changing our policies regarding cybersecurity threats.

https://qmichaellewis.blogspot.com/2025/03/modeling-tariff-passthrough-as.html