North Korea Missile Tests, 'Very Standard' to Trump, Show Signs of Advancing Arsenal

[Eugene]

Source: New York Times

North Korea Missile Tests, ‘Very Standard’ to Trump, Show Signs of Advancing Arsenal

By David E. Sanger and William J. Broad
Sept. 2, 2019, 3:55 p.m. ET

As North Korea fired off a series of missiles in recent months — at least 18 since May — President Trump has repeatedly dismissed their importance as short-range and “very standard” tests. And although he has conceded “there may be a United Nations violation,” the president says any concerns are overblown.

Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, Mr. Trump explained recently, just “likes testing missiles.”

Now, American intelligence officials and outside experts have come to a far different conclusion: that the launchings downplayed by Mr. Trump, including two late last month, have allowed Mr. Kim to test missiles with greater range and maneuverability that could overwhelm American defenses in the region.

Japan’s defense minister, Takeshi Iwaya, told reporters in Tokyo last week that the irregular trajectories of the most recent tests were more evidence of a program designed to defeat the defenses Japan has deployed, with American technology, at sea and on shore.

Mr. Kim’s flattery of Mr. Trump with beguiling letters and episodic meetings offering vague assurances of eventual nuclear disarmament, some outside experts say, are part of what they call the North Korean leader’s strategy of buying time to improve his arsenal despite all the sanctions on North Korea.

The rapid improvements in the short-range missiles not only put Japan and South Korea in increased danger, but also threaten at least eight American bases in those countries housing more than 30,000 troops, according to an analysis of the missile ranges by The New York Times. Such missiles, experts say, could be designed to carry either conventional or nuclear warheads.

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Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/02/world/asia/north-korea-kim-trump-missiles.html

[soryang]

1. What efforts at a diplomatic solution?

Defense Secretary Mark Esper told reporters Wednesday that “we are concerned” about North Korea’s missile tests, but that “we’re not going to overreact” in the interest of preserving efforts at a diplomatic solution.

The US administration does not agree with a step by step process of action for action to build trust on the basis of reciprocity. The US approach is an unrealistic “all or nothing” approach causing the negotiations to deadlock as occurred at the Hanoi summit. The practical effect of the US negotiating posture has severely restricted South Korea's freedom to offer incentives to North Korea to engage in further dialogue with itself or the US.

The US position is little more than the standard hard line regime change position of the neocons disguised as something else with con man Trump out in front.

The conception that there is a "loophole" being exploited by Kim Jong Un fails to consider that the UN resolution restricting missile and nuclear testing by North Korea does not have an enforcement mechanism against testing of short range missiles. Therefore, the US has only the unilateral initiatives it may consider, with whatever powers in its coalition would be willing to go along.

The White House loathes the progressive Moon Jae In democratic party government of South Korea. The US defense interests want to increase South Korean payments to the US for defense costs by 500 percent, increase ROK commitments to out of area Indo-Pacific operations; deploy intermediate range ballistic missiles and more THAAD launchers in South Korea; and have South Korea buy into an integrated Aegis air defense system in the region with US and Japanese forces. Unlikely to get much cooperation on these issues from the progressive Moon Jae In administration in South Korea.

Additionally, the US wants South Korea to renew its intelligence sharing agreement with Japan in spite of Japan's trade war against South Korea which it claims is based upon "national security" concerns and distrust of South Korea in that respect. Meanwhile the US continues to develope and test missile weapon systems of all kinds, withdrawing from nuclear treaties , selling advanced fighter aircraft to South Korea and Japan, and encouraging Japan to circumvent constitutional restrictions on offensive military operations.