False Argument: Gun Ownership is Up Therefore Crime is Down

[mikeb302000]

Opposing Views

The number of violent crimes reported to police decreased 3.8 percent last year to 1.2 million, the fifth straight year of declines, the FBI announced Monday.

Meanwhile, the total number of property crimes reported to law enforcement agencies went down by 0.5 percent to 9 million, the ninth consecutive year that figure has fallen.

The FBI’s data showed that the South accounted for 41.3 percent of violent crime, while the West accounted for 22.9 percent. The Midwest claimed 19.5 percent of the cases and the Northeast, 16.2 percent.

The pro-gun blogs are ablaze with a false interpretation of this report. Crime is down while gun ownership is up, they keep repeating. The obvious inference is that BECAUSE gun ownership is up, crime is down. Often it's more than an inference.

This is one of their fundamental misconceptions, the idea that more guns means less violence.

The proof of their fallacy is in the geographic breakdown. The South, which has a high concentration of gun ownership, accounts for 41% of the violent crime. The Northeast, which has a much lower concentration of gun ownership, accounts for only 16.2%.

What's your opinion? Please leave a comment.
Cross posted at Mikeb302000

[jenw2]

1. And a swing and a miss

Violence in the South isn't related to gun ownership. It's mostly caused by racism. If the rest of the country was as racist as the South and didn't allow the same opportunities for minorities, there would be more violence. Of course getting rid of the guns would help all over despite the other related factors.

[Hoyt]

2. Every male, southern racist I've had misfortune to encounter was also a gun cultist/nut.

Seems to be highly correlated.

[hopeful68]

3. ditto

the perception of power (and need for the same) takes many terrifying forms....

[fightthegoodfightnow]

4. Agree Completely

Heard the same thing in the Daily Show!

[preventivePhD]

5. Logical Fallacy: Correlation doesn't equal causation

This Republican argument is a logical fallacy of informal logic: Correlation doesn't equal causation. In fact, it's really not even a correlation. You need at least three data points to accurately interpret a trend.

[mikeb302000]

6. What happened on this thread?

The Republican, conservative gun lunatics who control things around here were pretty much absent.

[Electric Monk]

7. They don't come in the Daily Show with Jon Stewart Group?

Speaking of which, what does this thread have to do with the Daily Show with Jon Stewart Group, anyway? I found no mention of Jon or TDSWJS in either of your links.

[ilikemaps]

8. Double-meaning

This seems like one of those things where the evidence can be used to draw opposite conclusions -- in other words, the evidence is useless for this debate.

[ChrisVance]

9. Spam deleted by cyberswede (MIR Team)

[samsingh]

10. kick

[Al Carroll]

12. Birth rate, not gun ownership

Most criminologists would tell you crimes rates are related to how many young males there are.

Of course there are dozens of other factors too.