Gavin Newsom understates Californias big drop in gun homicides

[HAB911]

http://www.politifact.com/california/statements/2016/nov/16/gavin-newsom/gavin-newsom-understates-californias-rapid-drop-gu/

SNIP

Our ruling

California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom said California has seen a "56 percent decline in the gun murder rate" since it enacted strong gun control laws in the 1990s.

Newsom appears to have mixed up the gun murder rate with the gun death rate. California’s gun murder rate dropped 67 percent between 1993 and 2014, according to a review of fatal injury report data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

A similar, though somewhat smaller, drop in the gun murder rate took place nationwide during this period.

Newsom’s overall point is correct: Gun deaths, including gun homicides, have dropped significantly in California since the state imposed the new laws.

We are not fact-checking the cause of this drop. Gun rights and gun control groups have different opinions on this.

What is clear is that gun homicides have declined significantly, and even faster than what Newsom stated.

His claim needs this key clarification.

We rate it Mostly True.

[Tikki]

1. Understand most of the media and politicrooks don't care or want this known.

They have a totally different agenda.

Watch carefully when there is a mass shooting, the local news second shift comes
on air after a trip to the beauty salon and extra careful makeup just in case the national news carries them.

Tikki

[jmg257]

2. Even better news - gun murders dropped nationwide since 1993...

{Ca...} gun murders fell from 9.60 per 100,000 residents in 1993 to 3.25 per 100,000 in 2011.

Nationwide, gun murder rates dropped from 7.0 homicides in 1993 to 2.75 per 100,000 in 2011.

"National rates of gun homicide and other violent gun crimes are strikingly lower now than during their peak in the mid-1990s, paralleling a general decline in violent crime, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of government data...

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades."

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/05/07/gun-homicide-rate-down-49-since-1993-peak-public-unaware/

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

3. While the statistics may be mostly correct...

...the conclusion is overly simplistic.

I agree that California had a drop in firearm homicides that is significantly higher than the US as a whole.

From the CDC's WISQARS database>> https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/fatal.html
Firearm homicides for 1993:
USA - 18,253
Cal - 3,183

Firearm homicides for 2015:
USA - 12,979
Cal - 1,396

USA overall decline for this period: 29%
CA decline for this period: 56%

I acknowledge the drop and suggest it may be due to issues more complex than new gun laws.

(I'm not making any representation about murder rates because homicide includes more than just murder.)

[Eleanors38]

4. Pro & anti 2A folks should seek to understand why the national gun-homicide rate has dropped.

Having some inkling of the explanation might enable a further drop everywhere. In any case, it sure beats reflexive prohibitionism and propaganda.