Miscalculation: Inside the Intelligence Gap That Pushed the U.S. to War with Iran - William Spaniel

[TexasTowelie]

Reporting over the last few days has indicated a divergence in intelligence expectations between Israel and the United States on the eve of the Iran War. U.S. sources in particular were pessimistic about the chances of protestors would rise up against the regime. Today, we examine this mechanism as a cause of war and appreciate a subtly of negotiations. Optimism and pessimism are not causes of war or peace. Rather, it is a divergence in belief between the warring parties that matters. We conclude with a discussion of what that means for a possible end of the war.

0:00 Miscalculation Reports
1:30 What the Reports Actually Say
3:04 Does Protesting Cause War?
7:48 Private Information about Protests as a Cause of War
11:22 What the Lack of Protests Tells Us

[rampartd]

1. garbage in/ garbage out

i really don't care how smart a computer or a politician claims to be, without true and timely data the result will not be good.