Russian Economy is a disaster - UATV English

[TexasTowelie]

The Russian economy is on the brink of disaster. This is what Western analysts are saying. Despite the fact that official Russian statistics report low inflation and economic growth, the problems are becoming increasingly obvious. Almost one and a half thousand international companies have left Russia, and educated Russians are leaving the country. More and more money is being absorbed by the military-industrial complex, while spending on social services is decreasing. About how much longer Moscow will be able to finance aggression against Ukraine - see in a material.

[DFW]

1. One thoroughly unscientific (but reliable) indicator that trouble is brewing there

A few people I know here in Germany and Poland have clients who feed an unofficial market in Russian gold coins. They get visits in Poland from citizens of former Soviet "republics," such as Byelorus, Kazakhstan and, of course, the Ukraine itself. They are all looking to buy common old Russian gold coins, usually plentiful and common on the market for old gold coins. They used to go for tiny percentages over their gold value, indicating a weak market for them at home in Russia, meaning that the people didn't fear for the economy. Now, suddenly, there is a huge demand for the old gold coins, even at a large premium over their gold value, meaning that Russians are looking to get rid of rubles however they can, and sticking them into valuable, portable value they can take with them anywhere at a moment's notice.

As a comparison, old U.S. twenty dollar gold coins, always a favorite of right wing marketers ranting on about how the "libbruls" would "tax and spend" the value of the US dollar into oblivion, are now selling at their lowest premium ever over their gold bullion value, indicating a confidence in both the currency and the local (i.e. USA) economy. When Reagan and Cheney were blowing our deficit into the stratosphere, there were double digit premiums on the $20 coins in the USA. At one point during the Reagan years, there was a three digit premium, meaning those coins were selling for over double their gold value. Reagan had pushed interest rates to 15% and beyond, scaring the hell out of anyone with a big position in US dollars. The value of the dollar climbed high on the foreign exchange markets due to the huge interest rates necessary to keep attracting foreign investors to the dollar, but the US economy took a monstrous hit when money cost over 15% to borrow. It didn't last long, of course.

So, when 5, 7.5, 10 and 15 ruble coins are going for huge premiums in the west (and thus far bigger ones for those who have the path to smuggle them into Russia), it means there are big problems going on with the local economy.