Putin is Tempted to Cross 'This' Line. Will He Do It? China is Concerned - The Russian Dude‬

[TexasTowelie]

Putin was talking about 'this' decision and crossing 'this' line almost monthly since the beginning of war. But he never dared to cross it. After Ukraine's successful incursion into Kursk, the same question appeared again. The incursion itself was a major gamble by Ukrainian Army. A gamble, that paid off in full. Putin is now tempted to cross 'this' line even more. But his nuclear blackmail no longer works. Will Putin ever use nukes? Because China and India are concerned. And what is the future role of nuclear weapons in this war?

0:00 What's up!
0:57 Ukrainian gamble that paid off
3:39 Nuclear blackmail doesn't work
7:15 Will Putin ever use nukes?
11:31 Future role of nukes in war

[-misanthroptimist]

1. Nukes take a lot of upkeep

The US spends more on the upkeep of our nukes than Russia spends on its entire military (including, I believe, nukes). It is very likely that a significant portion of Russia's nukes are less than operable. Imagine Putin ordering a nuclear attack only to have most or all of the weapons fail. The very best scenario for him and Russia at that point is they become a laughing stock of the world. And if he ordered a large attack with poor results, it is quite likely that Russia will cease to exist in short order due to our retaliatory strikes.

If he uses nukes it will be tactical nukes and it will be without fanfare.

I doubt he goes to nukes. More likely, in my very amateur opinion, is Russia invades the Baltic States to try to get NATO (and Ukraine) to the bargaining table where he'll try to keep what he has stolen in Ukraine. Even that is a bad play, though, as some NATO members would very much enjoy taking on Russia at this point. And if Russia can't subdue Ukraine, they sure as hell couldn't stop Poland (for instance) from taking whatever part of Russia it wanted -up to and including Moscow.