The Peak Oil Crisis: Election 2012

[Javaman]

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2012-02-02/peak-oil-crisis-election-2012

If current trends continue, gasoline prices and U.S. energy policy seem destined to play a larger role in the political debate prior to the November elections than ever before. Gasoline on the East Coast is already within striking distance of all-time highs and most prognosticators are talking about the likelihood of $4+ gasoline before summer. Although the U.S. consumer is more inured to $4 gasoline than four years ago, the crossing of the $4 barrier is bound to set off another round of recriminations and finger pointing as to just who or what is causing this phenomenon. If what happened in 2008 is any indication we are in for another round of bizarre proposals from our politicians - remember the "sue OPEC" legislation.

The fundamental energy policies of the two U.S. political parties have been pretty well set for the last four or five years although there has been some give in response to transient political pressures. Most Democratic politicians continue to express concerns about the potential threat to the planet caused by increasing CO2 emissions and therefore reflexively tend toward policies that favor reduced consumption of fossil fuels either through increased efficiency or replacement with renewables or even nuclear power.

For the most part, Republican politicians, whether they believe it or not, have embraced the position that increased burning of fossil fuels either is not responsible for climate change or is such a slow moving phenomenon that it need not be dealt with in the foreseeable future - "if it is real, the grandchildren can worry about it." Increasing domestic energy consumption at all costs which incidentally is relatively painless to the voter is the proper course. This position, of opposing efforts to control emissions is of relatively recent vintage and came about when it became apparent that controlling carbon emissions would likely result in heavy costs to fossil fuel producers and consumers alike.

What does peak oil have to say to us about the coming election? In general, those who understand the nuances of the phenomenon of the peaking of global oil are saying that world oil production is either at or is very close to reaching its all-time peak. In recent years leveling out of conventional oil production has resulted in a fivefold increase in oil prices. This increase in oil prices is believed by many to be a key reason, if not the key reason, for the economic troubles currently besetting much of the world. The undeniable conclusion is that, given the current situation and the prospects for oil prices, it is unlikely that there will be an economic rebound or a meaningful increase in employment until such time that new and affordable sources of energy come into general use.

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