Oh Well!! Non, Monsieur!! Paris Goal Of 1.5C Likely Off The Table, Study Shows; 2.7C Now Likely By 2100

[hatrack]

World leaders have promised to try to stop the planet heating by more than 1.5C (2.7F). But current policies put the temperature rise on track for 2.7C, a report has found. The expected level of global heating by the end of the century has not changed since 2021, with “minimal progress” made this year, according to the Climate Action Tracker project. The consortium’s estimate has not shifted since the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow three years ago. “We have clearly failed to bend the curve,” said the lead author of the analysis, Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga, from Climate Analytics.

The expected level of warming is slightly lower when considering government pledges and targets, at 2.1C, but has also not changed since 2021. Warming in the most optimistic scenario rose slightly from 1.8C last year to 1.9C this year, the report found. Changes in average global temperatures that sound small can lead to massive human suffering. Last month, a study found half of the 68,000 heat deaths in Europe in 2022 were the result of the 1.3C of global heating the world has seen so far. At the higher temperatures that are projected for the end of the century, the risk of irreversible and catastrophic extremes is also set to soar.

The findings were released as climate negotiators converge on the Cop29 summit in Azerbaijan for fraught negotiations over greenhouse gas pollution and the money needed to deal with it. The flatlining of progress comes despite the world seeing breakneck change in the rollout of clean technologies that can replace coal, oil and gas. The report found fossil fuel subsidies have also hit all-time highs, and funding for such projects quadrupled between 2021 and 2022.

Prof Niklas Höhne, a climate scientist at the NewClimate Institute in Germany, said it was “not a paradox” to see rising emissions while renewables boomed. “In recent years, fossil fuels have won the race against renewables, leading to increasing emissions,” he said.

EDIT

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/14/minimal-progress-global-heating-report-cop29

[MrWowWow]

1. Cutting GHG Emissions in Half by 2030 Won't Happen

Here is a summary of greenhouse gas concentrations in parts per million (ppm) for 2019 and available 2024 estimates, focusing on the primary greenhouse gases tracked by atmospheric monitoring:

1. Carbon Dioxide (CO₂

2019: ~410 ppm

2024 (estimated): ~420-425 ppm
CO₂ levels have continued to increase annually, despite some reduction efforts, primarily due to fossil fuel use and deforestation.



2. Methane (CH₄

2019: ~1.87 ppm (or 1,870 ppb, as methane is often reported in parts per billion)

2024 (estimated): ~2.00 ppm (or 2,000 ppb)
Methane levels have seen notable increases, driven by agriculture, waste management, and fossil fuel production, though initiatives to cap methane leaks have begun to emerge.



3. Nitrous Oxide (N₂O)

2019: ~0.33 ppm (330 ppb)

2024 (estimated): ~0.34-0.35 ppm (340-350 ppb)
N₂O emissions continue to rise slowly, with agriculture (fertilizers) as the primary source.



4. Fluorinated Gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF₆, NF₃

Concentrations are much lower than CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O, measured in parts per trillion (ppt) rather than ppm.

Emissions for these gases vary widely, with individual gas concentrations often around 1-10 ppt for commonly used HFCs and PFCs.




Overall, CO₂ remains the dominant greenhouse gas, with steady rises in methane and nitrous oxide levels. Fluorinated gases, though present in much lower concentrations, contribute significantly due to their high global warming potential.

-ChatGPT

[MrWowWow]

2. And Now, in Gigatons

Here's a summary of global greenhouse gas emissions in gigatons (Gt) of CO₂-equivalent for 2019 and estimated 2024 data, broken down by gas:

1. Total Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

2019: Approximately 52 Gt CO₂-equivalent

2024 (estimated): Expected to be around 54-56 Gt CO₂-equivalent, subject to annual variations and climate policies.



2. Breakdown by Gas (2019 figures with estimated 2024 trends):

Carbon Dioxide (CO₂

2019: ~38 Gt CO₂

2024 (estimated): Around 39-40 Gt CO₂, with the overall trajectory showing slight increases due to industrial and transportation emissions, though impacted by renewable energy adoption.


Methane (CH₄

2019: ~9-10 Gt CO₂-equivalent

2024 (estimated): Likely around 10-11 Gt CO₂-equivalent, influenced by efforts to reduce emissions from the energy sector and agriculture.


Nitrous Oxide (N₂O)

2019: ~3 Gt CO₂-equivalent

2024 (estimated): Expected to increase modestly to 3-3.5 Gt CO₂-equivalent.


Fluorinated Gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF₆, etc.)

2019: ~1-2 Gt CO₂-equivalent

2024 (estimated): Likely to remain around 1.5-2.5 Gt CO₂-equivalent, with gradual reductions in some regions due to phasedown policies.





Note: These figures represent emissions in terms of CO₂-equivalent, reflecting the global warming potential (GWP) of each gas over a specified timeframe. Carbon dioxide remains the largest contributor, with methane and nitrous oxide making significant impacts despite their lower volumes due to their higher GWP. Fluorinated gases, though low in volume, also contribute disproportionately due to their extremely high GWP.

-ChatGPT

[MrWowWow]

3. Cumulative for 2019 and 2030

Cumulative Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2019 and Projected Cumulative Emissions by 2030

1. Cumulative Emissions by 2019:

Estimated cumulative emissions by 2019 were approximately 2,200 to 2,400 gigatons of CO₂-equivalent since the beginning of the industrial era (~1750). This total reflects the sum of all major greenhouse gases emitted by human activities, primarily:

Carbon Dioxide (CO₂ : Contributing roughly 1,900 to 2,000 gigatons.

Methane (CH₄ : Around 400-450 gigatons CO₂-equivalent.

Nitrous Oxide (N₂O): Approximately 100-150 gigatons CO₂-equivalent.

Fluorinated Gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF₆, etc.): Adding about 20-30 gigatons CO₂-equivalent.




2. Projected Cumulative Emissions by 2030:

If current trends continue, cumulative emissions by 2030 are projected to reach 2,600 to 2,800 gigatons of CO₂-equivalent. This projection assumes a continued increase in annual emissions, tempered by potential global efforts to mitigate and reduce emissions through policy, technological innovation, and renewable energy adoption.

Carbon Dioxide (CO₂ : Expected to add around 300-400 gigatons, bringing the cumulative total to 2,300 to 2,400 gigatons.

Methane (CH₄ : Could see an increase of 60-100 gigatons CO₂-equivalent, totaling around 460-550 gigatons CO₂-equivalent.

Nitrous Oxide (N₂O): Predicted to add 15-25 gigatons CO₂-equivalent, resulting in a cumulative total of 115-175 gigatons CO₂-equivalent.

Fluorinated Gases: Expected to see a more modest rise, potentially reaching a cumulative total of 30-40 gigatons CO₂-equivalent.





Context:

Cumulative Emissions Impact: Cumulative emissions are critical for understanding long-term climate impacts, as they represent the total greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere since industrialization began.

Policy and Technological Impact: The cumulative emissions by 2030 will heavily depend on global climate action, including emissions reduction commitments, clean energy transitions, and methane mitigation measures.

-ChatGPT

[MrWowWow]

4. Percentage Increase in Greenhouse Gas (by species) 2019 to 2030

The percentage change in global emissions from 2019 to 2030 for each greenhouse gas species is as follows:

1. Carbon Dioxide (CO₂ : ~2.6% increase


2. Methane (CH₄ : ~10.5% increase


3. Nitrous Oxide (N₂O): ~16.7% increase


4. Fluorinated Gases: ~33.3% increase



These percentages reflect the projected changes in global emissions for each gas, with fluorinated gases expected to have the largest relative increase.
______________________________
.
---->Civilization will not achieve the COP goal of a 50% greenhouse gas reduction by 2030.

[MrWowWow]

5. Water Vapor(Greenhouse Gas) Change, 2019 to 2030

Last edited Thu Nov 14, 2024, 08:46 AM - Edit history (1)

Water vapor is not emitted directly by human activities like other greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, etc.). Instead, it acts as a feedback mechanism. As the atmosphere warms due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, the amount of water vapor in the air increases. This is because warmer air can hold more moisture.

The increase in water vapor can be quantified indirectly through its relationship with temperature and other greenhouse gases. For instance, if the global temperature rises by about 1°C (a common projection by 2030 depending on emissions scenarios), the atmosphere's water vapor content could increase by about 7% per degree Celsius rise.

Water Vapor's Role:

Water Vapor in 2019: At the current global temperature and humidity levels, the atmosphere typically contains about 12,900 gigatons of water vapor.

Water Vapor in 2030: If the temperature rises by 0.5–1°C over the next decade (depending on the emissions path), water vapor levels could rise by 3.5–7% in total.


Example Calculation of Projected Water Vapor Change:

1. 2019 Estimate: 12,900 gigatons of water vapor in the atmosphere.


2. Projected 2030 Estimate (assuming a 1°C increase):
gigatons.



Percentage Difference:

Percentage Increase (2019–2030):
~7% increase in water vapor due to higher temperatures and associated humidity increases.


This increase is not directly due to human emissions of water vapor, but rather an amplification effect from rising global temperatures caused by other greenhouse gases.

-ChatGPT

[MrWowWow]

6. Anthropogenic Contribution of Water Vapor to The Atmosphere (2019 to Predicted 2030)

Anthropogenic contributions to water vapor in the atmosphere are largely indirect. While human activities don’t directly emit water vapor in large quantities, they contribute to increased water vapor levels through the emissions of greenhouse gases that cause warming. This warming, in turn, leads to more evaporation and more moisture being held in the atmosphere.

How Anthropogenic Water Vapor is Generated:

1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: When greenhouse gases like CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O are emitted, they increase the Earth's temperature, which leads to more water evaporating from oceans, lakes, and land surfaces.


2. Changes in Land Use: Deforestation and urbanization can also alter the natural water cycle, contributing to changes in local atmospheric water vapor levels.



Estimated Increase in Water Vapor (Indirectly from Anthropogenic Activities):

Given that water vapor is highly sensitive to temperature changes, it is often calculated as a feedback effect. A typical rule of thumb is that for each 1°C increase in global temperature, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more water vapor.

1. Water Vapor in 2019:

The Earth's atmosphere contains roughly 12,900 gigatons of water vapor in 2019, a majority of which is driven by natural processes (evaporation, transpiration).


2. Water Vapor in 2030 (due to anthropogenic warming):

Global temperatures are expected to rise by about 0.5°C to 1°C by 2030, depending on emissions scenarios.

For every 1°C of warming, water vapor in the atmosphere could increase by 7%.


Using this estimate:

If the temperature increases by 0.5°C, the increase in water vapor could be approximately 3.5%.

If the temperature increases by 1°C, the increase could be approximately 7%.


Example Calculation of Anthropogenic Water Vapor Increase:

1. 2019 Water Vapor: ~12,900 gigatons


2. Projected 2030 Increase (1°C temperature rise):




So, anthropogenic warming could add around 900 gigatons of water vapor to the atmosphere by 2030 due to the 1°C increase in global temperature.

Summary:

Anthropogenic Water Vapor Increase (2019 to 2030): Approximately 900 gigatons if temperatures increase by 1°C due to human emissions of greenhouse gases.

This increase is a feedback effect of warming and not direct emissions of water vapor.


-ChatGPT

[MrWowWow]

7. Anthropogenically-Driven Atmopheric Greenhouse Gas (Percentage by Gas Species) Change, 2019 to 2030

The anthropogenic contribution to greenhouse gases, including water vapor, is primarily indirect. Below is the breakdown of human-caused changes in greenhouse gases from 2019 to 2030:

1. Carbon Dioxide (CO₂ :

2019: ~38 gigatons of CO₂

2030 (projected): ~39 gigatons of CO₂

Percentage Increase:

The anthropogenic contribution to CO₂ emissions is direct, largely from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes.


2. Methane (CH₄ :

2019: ~9.5 gigatons of CO₂-equivalent (CH₄

2030 (projected): ~10.5 gigatons of CO₂-equivalent (CH₄

Percentage Increase:

Human activities such as agriculture (especially livestock), fossil fuel extraction, and waste management are the major contributors to methane emissions.


3. Nitrous Oxide (N₂O):

2019: ~3 gigatons of CO₂-equivalent (N₂O)

2030 (projected): ~3.5 gigatons of CO₂-equivalent (N₂O)

Percentage Increase:

Nitrous oxide emissions come from agricultural practices, particularly the use of synthetic fertilizers, as well as some industrial processes.


4. Fluorinated Gases:

2019: ~1.5 gigatons of CO₂-equivalent (Fluorinated gases)

2030 (projected): ~2 gigatons of CO₂-equivalent (Fluorinated gases)

Percentage Increase:

Fluorinated gases are synthetic gases used in refrigeration, air conditioning, and industrial processes. These gases have a high global warming potential, and their emissions are entirely anthropogenic.


5. Water Vapor (Indirect Contribution from Anthropogenic Activities):

Water vapor in the atmosphere is indirectly influenced by human activities through the warming of the planet caused by greenhouse gas emissions. As the atmosphere warms, it can hold more moisture.

2019: ~12,900 gigatons (baseline)

2030: ~13,803 gigatons (with a 1°C temperature rise)

Percentage Increase (due to anthropogenic warming):

The increase in water vapor is entirely a feedback mechanism, driven by higher temperatures from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.



---

Summary of Anthropogenic Contributions (2019–2030):

Carbon Dioxide (CO₂ : ~2.6% increase

Methane (CH₄ : ~10.5% increase

Nitrous Oxide (N₂O): ~16.7% increase

Fluorinated Gases: ~33.3% increase

Water Vapor (Indirect feedback due to warming): ~7% increase


These figures reflect the human impact on each greenhouse gas, either directly through emissions (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, fluorinated gases) or indirectly through the feedback effect of warming (water vapor).

-ChatGPT