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OKIsItJustMe

(20,739 posts)
Mon Jul 15, 2024, 10:27 PM Jul 2024

UC Irvine Earth System Scientists Discover Missing Piece In Climate Models

https://www.ess.uci.edu/news/1394
UC IRVINE EARTH SYSTEM SCIENTISTS DISCOVER MISSING PIECE IN CLIMATE MODELS
Their update accounts for the effects of overlooked physical properties in ice.
Monday, July 15, 2024 Lucas Van Wyk Joel UCI News

Irvine, Calif., July 15, 2024 — As the planet continues to warm due to human-driven climate change, accurate computer climate models will be key in helping illuminate exactly how the climate will continue to be altered in the years ahead.

In a study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, a team led by researchers from the UC Irvine Department of Earth System Science and the University of Michigan Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering reveal how a climate model commonly used by geoscientists currently overestimates a key physical property of Earth’s climate system called albedo, which is the degree to which ice reflects planet-warming sunlight into space.

“We found that with old model versions, the ice is too reflective by about five percent,” said Chloe Clarke, a project scientist in UC Irvine professor Charlie Zender’s group. “Ice reflectivity was much too high.”

The amount of sunlight the planet receives and reflects is important for estimating just how much the planet will warm in the coming years. Previous versions of the model, called the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), overestimated albedo because they did not account for what Clarke described as the microphysical properties of ice in a warming world.

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UC Irvine Earth System Scientists Discover Missing Piece In Climate Models (Original Post) OKIsItJustMe Jul 2024 OP
That seems like good news. NH Ethylene Jul 2024 #1
Wouldn't it be... 2naSalit Jul 2024 #2
But the albedo of ice hasn't changed, only our knowledge of the magnitude of it. NH Ethylene Jul 2024 #4
I'm afraid it's bad news OKIsItJustMe Jul 2024 #3

NH Ethylene

(30,999 posts)
1. That seems like good news.
Mon Jul 15, 2024, 10:34 PM
Jul 2024

If ice is not quite as reflective as was thought, then the loss of it won't be quite as impactful. We're still up Sh*t's Creek, but not quite as far.

2naSalit

(92,669 posts)
2. Wouldn't it be...
Mon Jul 15, 2024, 11:09 PM
Jul 2024

The opposite? If it isn't reflecting, it's absorbing which means heating up thus melting faster.

NH Ethylene

(30,999 posts)
4. But the albedo of ice hasn't changed, only our knowledge of the magnitude of it.
Tue Jul 16, 2024, 11:44 PM
Jul 2024

So as ice melts, the loss of reflectivity would be a bit less than what it was thought to be, which means calculations of the impact of icepack loss would be off slightly. So maybe the predictions of the global temperature rise could be altered a small amount.

And yes, I'm grasping at straws.

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