Birth Rates Are Plummeting in Most Nations, And The World Isn't Prepared

[Warpy]

Human birth rates will continue to drop drastically over the coming century, and within just 25 years, over two-thirds of countries' populations will be in decline.

That's the finding of a new study published in The Lancet. The extensive team of international scientists behind the paper warns that governments must prepare for the massive changes we will face in the coming decades, as a result of these changes to global population patterns.
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"These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganizing societies," says Natalia Bhattacharjee, a population statistician with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in the US.

Back in 2018, previous studies found fertility rates were falling in half the world's populations, and the plummet continues.
https://www.sciencealert.com/birth-rates-are-plummeting-in-most-nations-and-the-world-isnt-prepared

https://www.sciencealert.com/birth-rates-are-plummeting-in-most-nations-and-the-world-isnt-prepared

[RandySF]

1. Earth needs fewer people.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. Nothing to worry about

55 year olds fight wars just as well as 18 year olds.

[Warpy]

3. Don't forget, they can be bricklayers and loading dock workers until they hit 70

The Reoublicans told us so and they wouldn't lie to us.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. I hear ya. It'll be an old folks world, but I don't relish passing days in the recliner

So work slower, and keep going. We may not be building pyramids or castles, but elites profit from our labor nonetheless.

[BWdem4life]

15. Not this 55-year-old

Much more difficult to get older people to do that kind of "work"

[bucolic_frolic]

19. Selective Training and Service Act of 1940

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selective_Training_and_Service_Act_of_1940
The Selective Training and Service Act of 1940, also known as the Burke–Wadsworth Act, Pub. L.Tooltip Public Law (United States) 76–783, 54 Stat. 885, enacted September 16, 1940,[1] was the first peacetime conscription in United States history. This Selective Service Act required that men who had reached their 21st birthday but had not yet reached their 36th birthday register with local draft boards. Later, when the U.S. entered World War II, all men from their 18th birthday until the day before their 45th birthday were made subject to military service, and all men from their 18th birthday until the day before their 65th birthday were required to register.[2]

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Bold lettering mine.

[BWdem4life]

21. Put me in jail then. Nt

[Hekate]

5. The Earth currently has 8 Billion people and counting. I am not worried about the allegedly falling birth rate...

I understand that an elderly population creates its own challenges, but I assure you we will die off in our own good time and cede the stage to younger humans.

Unless masses of parents once again get the brilliant idea that girls are a drag on their personal economy and create untold millions of males with no hope of ever marrying (looking at you China and India) , we may in time reach a new equilibrium. Maybe.

When I was in college and read The Population Bomb, I think the world population was about 3.5 Billion and rising rapidly. Where we are now was just unthinkable. We are killing the planet with sheer weight of numbers.

[Warpy]

7. Some enterprising and impatient youngster set up nitrous oxide asphyxiation booths

I'll be signing up. Giggling my way out sounds good, I know how I react to nitrrous.

Unfortunately, it will be over the howls of the fundagelicals, offended because they fear death so much.

The main reason the human population has quadrupled in my lifetime is because of vaccination that means half of all children aren't dying before they reach puberty.

While facing childbirth only to see half of those children die was an appalling proposition, so is watching your ten children grow up to face a world where everything will be in short supply. It's taken us a terribly long time to notice that part.

[Think. Again.]

8. Any chance you can find a link to...

...the N2O booths story? I'm very curious. I'm a supporter of 'death with dignity' but don't think it will be politically acceptable by the time I might ever need it.

[Warpy]

10. Nope, pulled that one right outta my ass

Sorry about that.

Somebody actually does it, I'm there.

[Think. Again.]

11. Ha! Well thank you anyway...

...I did try googling for it but didn't find anything.

Thanks again.

[Hekate]

12. VSED is already available

[Warpy]

13. Yes, but highly unpleasant

which is why more old folks don't do it.

[Hekate]

18. Dunno. A close friend of mine chose it after a couple of strokes left her really disabled....

Her desires were in writing, probably from before she went into assisted living. Hospice attended her, so all comfort measures could be given. She could still speak enough to make her desires well-known when she embarked upon this journey. Another friend of hers was a minister and acted on her behalf. Her only living relative was a brother in another state. She’d done everything she’d ever wanted to do, I think, and at the age of 80 wasn’t going to hang around any longer for the diapers and spoon feeding and all the rest.

She died almost exactly a year ago this March, and I will always miss the person I met in 1994, someone who courageously lived every minute of her life.

Another close friend’s mother, a devout Roman Catholic in her 90s, had dementia and was in memory care, as the euphemism is. As long as she continued to enjoy some quality of life, my friend was fine with making the frequent visits and doing everything possible to monitor her care. But there comes a point in Alzheimer’s where a person’s body seems to say, “no more,” and among other things they will turn their head away from an offered spoon. My friend’s mom had discussed not being forced to live with no quality of life, and apparently the Pope (can’t remember which one) also made it known that when the natural end of life is at hand, there is no requirement to use heroic measures to sustain the illusion of life. So, she too, was allowed to pass in peace with all measures taken for her comfort.

My husband has been researching and thinking about this option ever since these two deaths early last year. He thought that if it came right down to it for him (in some hideous case like ALS) he might have to leave the state or even the country to choose assisted suicide. But this is another option. I just had to listen to him process it for several months.

[Silent Type]

6. Perfect timing for AI. We might actually find benefits in downsizing, less growth, etc.

[Think. Again.]

9. I know adapting will be challenging to society in general...

...but as someone with a little bit of common sense, a little bit of foresight, and a lot of concern for ecological balances, this is the best news I've heard in a long time.

[peacebuzzard]

14. Mother Nature might slightly recover from this overburdened and decimated planet

Earth has been pillaged enough.

[Warpy]

16. A smaller population might find completely different things to be useful

and the speed of the recovery after Mt. St. Helens blew up suggests the planet has the ability to reover rapidly as long as we get out of its way.

[peacebuzzard]

17. I think we are possibly past the tipping point,

But hope is always there. A much smaller population is one of the keys.

[DavidDvorkin]

20. Invest in robotics.

[RandomNumbers]

22. Great, another "doom and gloom" headline about a trend that is GOOD NEWS.

Sigh.

Obviously society needs to adjust to an older population. But why, with all the advanced technology we have now, should this be a bad or difficult thing?

The only potential issue I see is the question of *who* chooses to reproduce. But I expect evolution will do her thing and that won't be a big issue in the long run.

[Warpy]

23. Yeah, I know, right?

The problems cited in that article seem to add up to the fact that it's bad for business, fewer workers supporting old folks who can't work any longer, rising wages, that sort of thing.

Economies are going to have to do a lot of adjustment, scarce labor finally being valued while the oversupply we old Boomers saw was not. Old folks like the Kochs and most of the tech lords and investment bankers who made a killing are not going to be happy about paying higher wages and taxes, but o bla di.

Population needs to contract to a sustainable level. The US is propping up its billionaires by importing hceap labor, but that's not going to be tolerated forever and besides, there's no way we can import enough population from China, India, and much of Africa to make a difference in those parts of the world. Economic disruption will be severe, affecting the poor and elderly most of all.