World's two largest coal consumers won't be weaning off the fossil fuel anytime soon

[NickB79]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/01/11/china-and-india-cant-wean-themselves-off-coal-anytime-soon.html

Global coal usage in 2023 hit a record high, surpassing 8.5 billion tons for the first time, on the back of strong demand in emerging and developing countries such as India and China, IEA said in a recent report.

There are no signs of a slowdown, with the IEA saying coal consumption in India and Southeast Asia is projected to "grow significantly."

India's coal production rose to 893 million tons during the financial year ending March 2023, jumping nearly 15% from a year earlier. China's raw coal production from January to November in 2023 went up by 2.9% compared with the same period in 2022.

Demand for energy is still outpacing renewables installation.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

1. Bring new nuclear reactors on line.

[OKIsItJustMe]

3. How fast can you do that?

No, seriously…

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cancelled-nuscale-contract-weighs-heavy-new-nuclear-2024-01-10/

Cancelled NuScale contract weighs heavy on new nuclear
By Paul Day
January 10, 202412:15 PM EST

…

January 10 - NuScale, the first new nuclear company to receive a design certificate from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for its 77 MW Power Module SMR, said in November it was terminating its Carbon Free Power Project (CFPP) with the Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS).

UAMPS serves 50 community-owned power utilities in the Western United States and the CFPP, for which the Department of Energy approved $1.35 billion over 10 years subject to appropriations, was abandoned after the project failed to attract enough subscriptions.

NuScale shares tumbled 37% to less than $2 on the day of the news, November 8, and have remained largely between $2.5 and $3.5 since then. The shares hit highs of nearly $15 in August 2022 just three months after going public.

The CFPP had aimed to build NuScale SMR units at a site near Idaho Falls to be operable by 2029 though concerns arose that some at UAMPS members may be unwilling to pay for power from the project after NuScale raised the target price to $89/MWh in January, up from a previous estimate of $58/MWh.

…

I say we issue everybody stationary bicycles with generators attached…

[Hermit-The-Prog]

10. Gish gallop arguments are not an answer; just noise.

[NickB79]

11. China has been building 6-8 per year recently

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/30/how-china-became-king-of-new-nuclear-power-how-us-could-catch-up.html

China has 21 nuclear reactors under construction which will have a capacity for generating more than 21 gigawatts of electricity, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. That is two and a half times more nuclear reactors under construction than any other country.

India has the second largest nuclear buildout right now, with eight reactors under construction that will be able to generate more than six gigawatts of electricity. Third place Turkey has four nuclear reactors under construction with a presumed capacity of 4.5 gigawatts.

The United States currently has one nuclear reactor under construction, the fourth reactor at the Vogtle power plant in Georgia, which will be able to generate just over 1 gigawatt. (For the sake of comparison, a gigawatt is about enough to power a mid-sized city.)

“China is the de facto world leader in nuclear technology at the moment,” Jacopo Buongiorno, professor of nuclear science and engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told CNBC.

The US built almost all of it's 100 reactors in only 30 years (1960-1990), and that's not even counting the hundreds of small military reactors powering ships and submarines. France built almost 60 reactors in the same time. So it's clear that there are no technological hurdles to rapidly building out a new reactor fleet.

I mean, we're getting beat by fricking Turkey? Really?

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. No, really, can you like wave a magic wand or something?

When was the last time you saw an article about a nuclear plant being built under cost and ahead of schedule? or even on schedule?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/11/uk-government-sets-out-plans-for-biggest-nuclear-power-expansion-in-70-years

UK government sets out plans for ‘biggest nuclear power expansion in 70 years’
Ministers hope to build fleet of reactors to meet quarter of electricity demand by 2050 but critics highlight long delays and rising costs

Jillian Ambrose
Thu 11 Jan 2024 00.01 GMT

The government has set out plans for what it claims will be Britain’s biggest nuclear power expansion in 70 years, despite concerns about faltering nuclear output and project delays.

Ministers published a roadmap on Friday that recommits the government to building a fleet of nuclear reactors capable of producing 24GW by 2050 – enough to meet a quarter of the national electricity demand.

…

The roadmap echoes plans put forward by the then prime minister, Boris Johnson, in 2022 to “build a new [reactor] every year” to wean Britain off fossil fuel.

Since then the developer of Hinkley Point C, the French utility EDF, has said the cost of Britain’s first new nuclear plant in a generation had spiralled to £33bn, a 30% increase from 2015 when it forecast the cost at between £25bn to 26bn. There are also concerns that Hinkley’s start date may be delayed from the summer of 2027 to the early 2030s.

…

[OKIsItJustMe]

5. New nuclear may be delayed by uncertain fuel supplies

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/new-nuclear-may-be-delayed-by-uncertain-fuel-supplies-2023-09-21/

New nuclear may be delayed by uncertain fuel supplies
By Paul Day
September 21, 202311:07 AM EDT

September 21 - Many of the new nuclear reactors under development are designed to run on uranium at enrichments as high as 15%-19.75%, known as high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), rather than traditional Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology, which typically uses uranium enriched to 3%-5%.

The only commercial source of HALEU, however, is Russia.

The invasion of Ukraine, and Russia’s consequent political and commercial isolation, has left many developers of next generation reactors concerned that, without a concerted effort to rebuild non-Russian supply chains, there will not be enough fuel.

“It's unfortunate that the United States got over a barrel in this way. It took decades to get to this sort of abject level of dependence. The country went from the world's largest exporter to the world's largest importer, through a variety of missteps and mishaps,” says Dan Poneman, Chief Executive Officer of U.S. nuclear fuel company Centrus Energy.

…

[OKIsItJustMe]

6. Japan says earthquake shook nuclear plant past safety limits

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2024/01/11/japan-earthquake-safety-limits-nuclear-plant/6731704992454/

Japan says earthquake shook nuclear plant past safety limits

By Clyde Hughes

Jan. 11 (UPI) -- The deadly earthquake that rocked Japan on New Year's Day shook a nuclear power plant beyond established safety levels, according to a report by Japan's Nuclear Regulatory Authority.

The authority said that the buildings at the Shika nuclear power plant on the Noto Peninsula were made to sustain shaking measured at 918 Galileo units, but the Jan. 1 earthquake produced 957 Galileo units of shaking.

The authority and Hokuriku Electric Power Co., which run the plants, however, said both units of the plant were already offline before the earthquake and no significant damage was reported to the facility.

While no problems have been reported at the plant's physical structure or its operation a week later, authority head Shinsuke Yamanaka said the results must be "factored in" and safety nuclear power plant safety standards upgraded.

…

Thank god earthquakes only happen in Japan!

[OKIsItJustMe]

7. Nuclear expansion failure shows simulations require change

https://www.reading.ac.uk/news/2023/Research-News/Nuclear-expansion-failure-shows-simulations-require-change

Nuclear expansion failure shows simulations require change

15 November 2023

The widespread adoption of nuclear power was predicted by computer simulations more than four decades ago but the continued reliance on fossil fuels for energy shows these simulations need improvement, a new study has shown.

In order to assess the efficacy of energy policies implemented today, a team of researchers looked back at the influential 1980s model that predicted nuclear power would expand dramatically. Energy policies shapes how we produce and use energy, impacting jobs, costs, climate, and security. These policies are generated using simulations (also known as mathematical models) which forecast things like electricity demand and technology costs. But forecasts may miss the point altogether.

Results published today (Wednesday, 15 November) in the journal Risk Analysis showed the team found simulations that inform energy policy had unreliable assumptions built into them and that they need more transparency about their limitations. To amend this, they recommend new ways to test simulations and be upfront about their uncertainties. This includes methods like ‘sensitivity auditing’, which evaluates model assumptions. The goal is to improve modelling and open up decision-making.

Lead researcher Dr Samuele Lo Piano, of the University of Reading, said: “Energy policy affects everybody, so it’s worrying when decisions rely on just a few models without questioning their limits. By questioning assumptions and exploring what we don't know, we can get better decision making. We have to acknowledge that no model can perfectly predict the future. But by being upfront about model limitations, democratic debate on energy policy will improve.”

…

Yup! That “nuclear renaissance” is just around the corner.

[OKIsItJustMe]

8. State regulators pass along $7.6B tab to ratepayers for Georgia Power's Plant Vogtle

https://georgiarecorder.com/2023/12/19/state-regulators-pass-along-7-6b-tab-to-ratepayers-for-georgia-powers-plant-vogtle/

State regulators pass along $7.6B tab to ratepayers for Georgia Power’s Plant Vogtle
BY: STANLEY DUNLAP - DECEMBER 19, 2023 4:12 PM

The story was updated at 10 am on Dec. 20 with a statement from Georgia Power

Georgia Power ratepayers will be responsible for a $7.6 billion bill for the construction of two nuclear reactors built during the long-delayed expansion at Plant Vogtle located southeast of Augusta.

The financial agreement for the nuclear project boondoggle was approved Tuesday by the Georgia Public Service Commission. It calls for the utility company to cover at least $2.6 billion of an expected $10 billion in construction and capital costs spent on the Vogtle project. State regulators signed off on terms outlined in a stipulated agreement reached in August between Georgia Power, PSC advocacy staff, the Georgia Association of Manufacturers and consumer and watchdog advocacy organization Georgia Watch, and the Georgia Interfaith Power & Light and Partnership for Southern Equity.

Vogtle has remained a major source of contention as costs ballooned to $35 billion, more than double the price initially forecast for a project that’s taken 14 years to complete. The two Vogtle units are the first nuclear reactors to be built in the United States in more than 30 years, and is the latest in a series of rate increases Georgia Power customers will continue to bear in the coming months.

…

[Hermit-The-Prog]

9. You've spent a lot of time cherry-picking.

[bahboo]

2. I feel for future generations.....