Current Spike In Ocean Temperatures Opens Door To Droughts, Faster Ice Loss, Bigger Marine Dieoffs
A rapid surge in global ocean temperatures in recent months is raising the specter of a climate pattern shift that could accelerate planetary warming and supercharge trends that already are fueling extreme storms, deadly heat waves, and ecological crises on land and sea. On the heels of a new annual heat record set in 2022 — the latest in a string of record-setting years — average ocean surface temperatures around the globe have spiked since early March. Excluding polar regions, they are about two-tenths of a degree Celsius warmer than scientists have ever observed at this time of year via satellite data.
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A transition to the climate pattern known as El Niño is probably behind the warming trend, scientists say. They won’t be sure of that until more time passes and the pattern takes shape. What’s already certain: as greenhouse gas emissions drive a steady surge in global temperatures, the planet will continue to set new climate and weather precedents, and oceans will grow ever hotter. “You’ve got this relentless rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” said Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “We just know unless that turns around in some way, we will continue to set records.”
Historically, El Niño is known for accelerating global warming, with devastating effect. The pattern is marked by warmer-than-average surface waters in the Pacific Ocean that have domino effects on weather around the world. The last major El Niño drove the planet to record heat in 2016. The legacy of El Niño includes severe drought in places such as Indonesia and southern Africa, increased precipitation along the southern United States, and diminished Atlantic hurricane activity. Strong El Niños can also trigger ecological disasters and deadly weather extremes: drought and wildfires that cause rainforest loss, ocean warming that kills aquatic life and bleaches corals, rapid loss of polar ice, and a surge in transmission of diseases such as the plague.
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Now, scientists see signs of another El Niño brewing as Pacific waters off Ecuador and Peru quickly warm up. It is there that El Niño got its name, because the warming is known to disrupt the region’s fishing industry around Christmas — El Niño refers to “the Christ child” in Spanish. Climate forecasters estimate a 62 percent chance El Niño develops some time between May and July, and a 90 percent chance it arrives by the end of the year.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/04/28/ocean-temperatures-heat-record-surge-climate/
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