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progree

(12,652 posts)
Tue Mar 4, 2025, 11:04 AM Mar 2025

S&P 500 closed Monday 12/8 at 6847, down 0.3% ##BORING DAY #I updated the coming reports calendar

This discussion thread is pinned.

Last edited Mon Dec 8, 2025, 05:11 PM - Edit history (218)

The S&P 500 is off 0.6% from its Oct 28 all-time high. It was down more than 5% 12 trading days ago, which was pullback territory (Pullbacks start at 5% down, Corrections start at 10% down, Bull markets start at 20% down.).

In the future I will only be doing these twice a week: Tuesday and Friday, unless it's really interesting. I've updated the below Monday, December 8, but did not excerpt a news summary

10 Year TREASURY YIELD 4.17% on 12/08, +0.03 (It local-bottomed out at 3.95% 10/22/25, its lowest point since April.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX/

Bitcoin: (at 4:10 PM ET 12/08 ) 90,972, up from 89,411 on Friday. It has wiped out all its gains for 2025 -- it ended 2024 at $93,429. It's in bear market territory, down more than 20% from it's $126,000+ all-time high in October (actually down 28% from that level)

Market news of the day: https://finance.yahoo.com/
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as Netflix skids on deal drama, Nvidia rises, Yahoo Finance, 12/8/25
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-fall-as-netflix-skids-on-deal-drama-nvidia-rises-205106952.html

How major US stock indexes fared FRIDAY, AP, 12/5/2025, - this has for the 4 major indexes (S&P 500, Dow, NASDAQ, Russell 2000 (small caps) -- For the day, for the week (since Friday's close), and for the year (since the December 31 close)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-211611885.html

Excerpting the Yahoo Finance link above:

No news summary from me today, there isn't anything particularly news worthy. I'm keeping the consumer sentiment below for another day.

I'm also updating the upcoming reports.

(From Friday Dec 5) Meanwhile, US consumer confidence ((actually consumer sentiment survey by the U. of Michigan -progree)) rose for the first time in five months as respondents' inflation expectations improved.
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

((Notice how it was a fly-speck tickup in the month-over-month number while the 3-month average actually moved down. This is very common in media reporting, making an enormous hoohah about the teeniest little change -progree))

FROM FRIDAY 12/5: Bitcoin is down roughly 3% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500's 17% gain. .

Scroll down to see earlier in the day reports

========
Coming up, reports (I'm also keeping the Dec 1 - Dec 5 ones for now)
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

The government reports are all seasonally adjusted, so please don't post comments about how the numbers look good only because of Christmas season hires - those have been adjusted for


Monday Dec 1 - S&P PMI and ISM's manufacturing reports (non-govt) - ICYMI - headlines I saw didn't look all that good

Wednesday Dec 3 - ADP employment, (non-govt) -- Private payrolls dropped 32,000 positions last month https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143576215
. . . S&P PMI and ISM's service reports (non-govt) -

Friday Dec 5 - PCE inflation -- the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, which I think sucks because it fully includes substitution effects, e.g. if a lot of consumers switch from soaring priced beef to turkey necks, this causes meat prices to rise less steeply or even fall (govt: the Commerce Dept) -- https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143577593
September PCE: +0.3%, 12 months: 2.8% (was 2.7%) ##CORE PCE: +0.2%, 12 months: 2.8% (was 2.9%);
(The "was" is what was reported in August). Some media are making a huge huge deal about a slight 0.1% downturn in the core YOY PCE inflation rate, I don't know why, but it's standard for the media to make a big thing out of a very minor change.
. . . Personal spending and personal income (govt: the Commerce Dept)
. . . Consumer sentiment (non-govt)
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

((Notice how it was a fly-speck tickup in the month-over-month number while the 3-month average actually moved down. This is very common in media reporting, making an enormous hoohah about the teeniest little change -progree))

TUE December 9:
NFIB Optimism index, (non-govt)
JOLTS (Jobs Opening and Labor Turnover Survey) (govt)

WED December 10:
Employment Cost Index for Q3 (govt)
FOMC Interest rate decision at 2 pm ET - very widely expected to be a quarter point rate cut

THUR DECEMBER 11:
Weekly unemployment insurance claims (govt)
Trade deficit (govt)

Revised release dates for Bureau of Labor Statistics reports: https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm

The October's CPI report has been cancelled and the November CPI won't be released prior to the Fed's December 10 rate-setting meeting. The November report was originally scheduled for 830 AM ET Dec 10, - several hours before the Fed's decision.

On November 21 we learned that they won't see the November jobs report until days after their meeting. And there won't be an October jobs report. The headline non-farm payrolls part for October will be presented with the November data, but again the November report won't come out until days after their meeting. The October unemployment rate will never be presented


=============================================
The S&P 500 closed Monday December 8 at 6847, down 0.3% for the day,
and up 18.4% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 14.2% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 16.4% year-to-date (since the December 31 close)

and down 0.6% from its October 28 all-time-high

S&P 500
# Election day close (11/5/24) 5783
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 5997
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 5882
# Trump II era low point (going all the way back to election day Nov5): 4983 on April 8
# October 28 all-time-high: 6890.90

# Several market indexes: https://finance.yahoo.com/
# S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

Bitcoin
Bitcoin ended 2024 at $93,429. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/
Bitcoin's all-time interday high: 126,198 on Oct. 6
Bitcoin's all-time closing high: 124,753 on Oct 6.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/

========================================================

I'm not a fan of the DOW as it is a cherry-picked collection of just 30 stocks that are price-weighted, which is silly. It's as asinine as judging consumer price inflation by picking 30 blue chip consumer items, and weighting them according to their prices. But since there is an automatically updating embedded graphic, here it is. It takes several, like 6 hours, after the close for it to update, like about 10 PM EDT.
(If it still isn't updated, try right-clicking on it and opening in a new tab. #OR# click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/ ).

The Dow closed Friday at 47,955, and it closed Monday at 47,739, a drop of 0.4% (216 points) for the day

https://finance.yahoo.com/
DOW: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/
. . . . . . https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/

DOW
# Election day close (11/5/24) 42,222
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 43,488
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 42,544

DJIA means Dow Jones Industrials Average. It takes about 6 hours after the close to update, so check it after 10 PM EDT. Sometimes it takes a couple days (sigh)



I don't have an embeddable graph for the S&P 500, unfortunately, but to see its graph, click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

While I'm at it, I might as well show Oil and the Dollar:

Crude Oil


US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB)


If you see a tiny graphics square above and no graph, right click on the square and choose "load image". There should be a total of 3 graphs. And remember that it typically takes about 6 hours after the close before these graphs update.
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S&P 500 closed Monday 12/8 at 6847, down 0.3% ##BORING DAY #I updated the coming reports calendar (Original Post) progree Mar 2025 OP
Kicking for the milestone update - S&P 500's first close below the election day close. How major indexes fared: progree Mar 2025 #1
Kicking: update for Thurs. March 6 close. The "Trump Trade" is back underwater after losing 1.8% for the day (S&P 500) progree Mar 2025 #2
Kicking: Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5770, up 0.5% for the day but still below the election day close progree Mar 2025 #3
Update: S&P 500 closed Monday 3/10 at 5615, down 2.7% for the day and 2.9% below the election day close progree Mar 2025 #4
Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/11 at 5572, down 0.8% for the day, briefly fell into correction territory progree Mar 2025 #5
S&P 500 closed Wednesday 3/12 at 5599, up 0.5% for the day, but down 3.2% since election day progree Mar 2025 #6
Update: S&P 500 closed Thursday at 5522, down 1.4% for the day, and MORE THAN 10% down from the all-time high progree Mar 2025 #7
Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5639, up 2.1% for the day, and down 2.5% since election day progree Mar 2025 #8
Update: S&P 500 closed Monday at 5675, up 0.6% for the day, and down 1.9% since election day progree Mar 2025 #9
Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 5615, down 1.1% for the day, and down 2.9% since election day progree Mar 2025 #10
S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/25 at 5777, up 0.2% for the day, down 0.1% since election day, down 6.0% from ATH progree Mar 2025 #11
S&P 500 closed Wednesday 4/02 at 5671, up 0.7% for the day, down 1.9% since election day, down 7.7% from ATH progree Apr 2025 #12
We're nearing the top. Arizona78 Jul 2025 #13
Krugman Arizona78 Jul 2025 #14
Thanks for your updates in this thread, progree. Hugin Nov 6 #15
And thanks, I appreciate that 😊 And thanks for pinning /nt progree Nov 6 #16
I'm not seeing much financial ink out there on the dump... Hugin Nov 14 #17
Me neither, until it broke the 20% down threshold to becoming a bear market progree Nov 15 #18
"rarity doesn't guarantee high value"... Hugin Nov 15 #19

progree

(12,652 posts)
1. Kicking for the milestone update - S&P 500's first close below the election day close. How major indexes fared:
Tue Mar 4, 2025, 04:11 PM
Mar 2025

Last edited Tue Mar 4, 2025, 04:51 PM - Edit history (1)

How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday, AP, 3/4/2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-211928579.html

Here's the Year-to-date ones from the article:
# S&P 500: down 1.8%
# Dow: down 0.1%
# Nasdaq down: 5.3%
# Russell 2000 (the small caps): down 6.8%

Not in the article is that the S&P 500 is down 5.9% from its all time closing high of 6144 on Feb 19.

progree

(12,652 posts)
2. Kicking: update for Thurs. March 6 close. The "Trump Trade" is back underwater after losing 1.8% for the day (S&P 500)
Thu Mar 6, 2025, 04:44 PM
Mar 2025

See OP for the statistics.

progree

(12,652 posts)
3. Kicking: Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5770, up 0.5% for the day but still below the election day close
Fri Mar 7, 2025, 05:35 PM
Mar 2025

See OP for details

progree

(12,652 posts)
4. Update: S&P 500 closed Monday 3/10 at 5615, down 2.7% for the day and 2.9% below the election day close
Mon Mar 10, 2025, 03:20 PM
Mar 2025

see OP for details.

progree

(12,652 posts)
5. Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/11 at 5572, down 0.8% for the day, briefly fell into correction territory
Tue Mar 11, 2025, 03:22 PM
Mar 2025

Details in OP.

progree

(12,652 posts)
6. S&P 500 closed Wednesday 3/12 at 5599, up 0.5% for the day, but down 3.2% since election day
Wed Mar 12, 2025, 04:20 PM
Mar 2025

See OP for details, and a graph of the DOW.

progree

(12,652 posts)
7. Update: S&P 500 closed Thursday at 5522, down 1.4% for the day, and MORE THAN 10% down from the all-time high
Thu Mar 13, 2025, 03:19 PM
Mar 2025

Details in the OP.

progree

(12,652 posts)
8. Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5639, up 2.1% for the day, and down 2.5% since election day
Fri Mar 14, 2025, 03:23 PM
Mar 2025

Details in the OP.

progree

(12,652 posts)
9. Update: S&P 500 closed Monday at 5675, up 0.6% for the day, and down 1.9% since election day
Mon Mar 17, 2025, 04:48 PM
Mar 2025

Details in OP.

progree

(12,652 posts)
10. Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 5615, down 1.1% for the day, and down 2.9% since election day
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 03:16 PM
Mar 2025

Details in OP.

progree

(12,652 posts)
11. S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/25 at 5777, up 0.2% for the day, down 0.1% since election day, down 6.0% from ATH
Tue Mar 25, 2025, 09:03 PM
Mar 2025

Details in OP. ATH is All Time High. I don't kick this every market day, but it's been several days, and it's gotten well down on the listings, so I decided to kick it. It looks like the Trump slump since election day is about at an end, only 0.1% down since election day, and with 3 straight market days of gains. Since inauguration day, its down 3.7%.

progree

(12,652 posts)
12. S&P 500 closed Wednesday 4/02 at 5671, up 0.7% for the day, down 1.9% since election day, down 7.7% from ATH
Wed Apr 2, 2025, 03:46 PM
Apr 2025

ATH is All Time High. Details in OP including more comparisons like down 5.4% since pre-inauguration day, and down 3.6% year-to-date.

I don't kick this every market day, but it's been several days, and it's gotten well down on the listings, so I decided to kick it. Note this closing is moments before the announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs, so it's a good benchmark to compare to what follows in the next few days.

Arizona78

(8 posts)
13. We're nearing the top.
Fri Jul 4, 2025, 02:09 AM
Jul 2025

Trump’s bill could soon trigger a repo market crisis and push America and much of the world—toward bankruptcy. Something massive is on the horizon. Get ready.

Arizona78

(8 posts)
14. Krugman
Fri Jul 4, 2025, 02:21 AM
Jul 2025

Paul Krugman is deeply concerned about the uncontrolled rise in debt, which could sharply push up interest rates leading to bankruptcy.

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trumps-big-beautiful-debt-bomb

Hugin

(37,232 posts)
17. I'm not seeing much financial ink out there on the dump...
Fri Nov 14, 2025, 10:57 AM
Nov 14

Crypto has taken over the last week or so. BTC $120K to ~ $97K.

progree

(12,652 posts)
18. Me neither, until it broke the 20% down threshold to becoming a bear market
Sat Nov 15, 2025, 01:13 AM
Nov 15

I'm seeing that proclaimed in a couple of articles in the yahoo.finance.com page today.

It's all-time high in October was over $126,000. Right now as I post this, it's 96,277, down 23.6%

I've been reporting Bitcoin near the top of my OP each time I update anything, along with the 10-year Treasury yield. I'm not sure why, but a lot of people are interested in it. Actually, it's kind of against my "religion", given the amount of electricity and water that bitcoin "miners" consume. I read recently that just ONE Bitcoin transaction uses as much electricity as does the average U.S. household over 38 days (more than a month!)

I might buy the Bitcoin evangelists' argument that bitcoin's high value (still) is that they keep the bitcoin supply very limited. But there are all kinds of new cryptocurrencies being created and eventually the amount of money available from people willing to support this ever-expanding ocean of speculative crypto-investments will reach a peak. (And besides, rarity doesn't guarantee high value).

Hugin

(37,232 posts)
19. "rarity doesn't guarantee high value"...
Sat Nov 15, 2025, 06:21 AM
Nov 15

If I had a nickel for every time I’d said that.

I am far from liking anything about crypto. I try to avoid things that are easy to buy and difficult to sell. I do monitor it, tho. Due to its position in the techbro’s DOW -> AI -> Crypto financial ouroboros.

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