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mahatmakanejeeves

(61,295 posts)
Sat Aug 17, 2024, 03:50 PM Aug 2024

The strong labor market has boosted US-born employment

Hat tip, the Associated Press

FACT FOCUS: Trump blends falsehoods and exaggerations at rambling NJ press conference

BY ASSOCIATED PRESS
Updated 7:49 PM EDT, August 15, 2024

{snip}

‘Foreign born’ is not the same as ‘migrants’

TRUMP: “Virtually 100% of the net job creation in the last year has gone to migrants.”

THE FACTS: This is a misinterpretation of government jobs data. The figures do show that the number of foreign-born people with jobs has increased in the past year, while the number of native-born Americans with jobs has declined. But foreign-born is not the same as “migrants” -- it would include people who arrived in the U.S. years ago and are now naturalized citizens.

In addition, the data is based on Census research that many economists argue is undercounting both foreign- and native-born workers. According to a report by Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson at the Brookings Institution released this week, native-born employment rose by 740,000 in 2023, while foreign-born rose by 1.7 million. Much of the disparity reflects the fact that the native-born population is older than the foreign-born, and are more likely to be retired. In addition, the unemployment rate for native-born Americans is 4.5%, lower than the 4.7% for foreign-born.

{snip}

The strong labor market has boosted US-born employment

Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson
August 13, 2024

Key takeaways:
• Both U.S.-born and foreign-born employment increased more than published data show.
• The authors estimate that U.S.-born employment increased by about 740,000 over the course of 2023. In contrast, the published data in the Current Population Survey show a decline of 190,000.
• They estimate that the increase in employment among foreign-born people was 1.7 million, larger than the 1.2 million in the published data.
• Higher estimates for both U.S.-born and foreign-born employment stem from migration numbers that are not yet captured by official population statistics.


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14 min read
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@WendyEdelberg
@taraelizwatson

We estimate that U.S.-born employment increased by about 740,000 over the course of 2023. In contrast, the published data in the Current Population Survey (CPS) show a decline of 190,000. In addition, we estimate that the increase in employment among foreign-born people was 1.7 million, larger than the 1.2 million in the published data. Our higher estimates of employment stem from compelling evidence of recent population growth fueled by an unanticipated surge in migration that is not yet captured in official population statistics underlying the CPS. As we explain, the unanticipated surge has had implications for estimates of employment among both foreign-born and U.S.-born people.

In our previous work, we provided evidence that CPS data underestimated the recent increase in the civilian non-institutionalized population of people in the United States ages 16 and up (hereafter referred to as the population). That piece presented estimates of aggregate population numbers and employment growth that were larger than published CPS data. Our estimates of stronger employment growth are more consistent with the relatively strong employment growth in the Establishment Survey, which reports survey data collected from firms.

Here, we decompose aggregate population and employment growth into growth among the U.S.-born and among the foreign-born subpopulations. We find that the published data in the CPS significantly underestimate population growth from January 2023 to January 2024 and, thus, employment growth over the year for both groups. It is perhaps counterintuitive that measurement issues stemming from an unexpected surge in net migration would result in the underestimation of the growth in the U.S.-born population, but this is indeed the case.

{snip}
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The strong labor market has boosted US-born employment (Original Post) mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2024 OP
So, no longer dividing by documented vs. undocumented. . . pat_k Aug 2024 #1
Well, I dunno. I've been yammering about the difference between the headline payroll job number in the progree Aug 2024 #2

pat_k

(10,880 posts)
1. So, no longer dividing by documented vs. undocumented. . .
Sat Aug 17, 2024, 03:56 PM
Aug 2024

. . .but by foreign born -- citizen or not -- and U.S. born?

So all migration is a bad thing?

Why not just go for it and divide the numbers by white (including those born in other nations) vs. everybody else?

progree

(11,463 posts)
2. Well, I dunno. I've been yammering about the difference between the headline payroll job number in the
Sat Aug 17, 2024, 06:54 PM
Aug 2024

Establishment Survey, as compared to the Employed number in the Household Survey for months.

Everyone in pundit-land says the payroll job numbers is the more comprehensive survey, and indeed the BLS, which produces both numbers, says as much, comparing sampling error in the 2 surveys. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm

Here's my latest yammer from the August 2 jobs report --
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3283653

The headline payroll job numbers (114,000 in July) come from the Establishment Survey
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022: 251 862 494 272 286 420 690 243 255 361 258 136
2023: 482 287 146 278 303 240 184 210 246 165 182 290
2024: 256 236 310 108 216 179 114 (Sum is 1419 year to date, that's 1.419 million)
The last 2 months (June and July) are preliminary, subject to revisions



# Employed in thousands (67,000 in July) come from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
If one adjusts the date range from 2021 to 2024, the graph is much more meaningful because it leaves out the huge swings of 2020 that greatly enlarges the Y axis and makes what follows look like tiny almost undiscernible squiggles around the zero axis
YEAR: JAN FEB MAR etc.
2022: 942 462 691 --331 426 --198 166 476 136 --165 --244 815
2023: 852 149 523 138 --255 297 205 291 50 --270 586 --683
2024: --31 --184 498 25 --408 116 67 (Sum is 83 year to date. That's 83,000 more employed.

Compare to the above series: 1.419 million more jobs)
January and February of each year are affected by changes in population controls.
A very volatile data series from month to month. I used a double minus to make the negative ones stand out a little better
This Household Survey also produces the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate among many other stats


I don't have the series numbers for US-born and foreign-born. I should be able to find them,

Data finder tool: https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

but weekends I work on getting the piles off the floor that accumulated while I was sick, praying and hoping that maybe somebody else can actually do some research into this kind of thing.

The article claims the CPS survey shows 1,010k additional jobs:

We estimate that U.S.-born employment increased by about 740,000 over the course of 2023. In contrast, the published data in the Current Population Survey (CPS) show a decline of 190,000. In addition, we estimate that the increase in employment among foreign-born people was 1.7 million, larger than the 1.2 million in the published data

(So the claim is the published data shows -190k + 1200k = 1010k additional jobs in this period --Progree)
...
We find that the published data in the CPS significantly underestimate population growth from January 2023 to January 2024 and, thus, employment growth over the year for both groups. It is perhaps counterintuitive that measurement issues stemming from an unexpected surge in net migration would result in the underestimation of the growth in the U.S.-born population, but this is indeed the case.


Well, looking at the monthly changes January 2023 + Feb 2023 + ... + Dec 2023, I get 1,883k change over the 12 months.

EMPLOYED from Household Survey which I assume is same as the CPS survey they talk about: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth

The sum of Feb 2023 + Mar 2023 + ... + Jan 2024 is 1,000k change over the 12 months, which is close to the 1,010k they claim the published data shows "from January 2023 to January 2024"

There might have been a revision since they wrote that, or they may have rounded 1,190k to "1.2 million".

Anyhow, no big deal, but I've really got to deal with losing phone service and a few other issues, and the floor piles (they are related).
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