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US consumer confidence hits lowest level since July 2022, Yahoo, 4/30/24
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumer-confidence-hits-lowest-level-since-july-2022-151304354.htmlThe Conference Board's consumer confidence index retreated to 97 in April, below economists' expectations for 104 and lower than March's reading of 103.1.
"According to April’s write-in responses, elevated price levels, especially for food and gas, dominated consumer’s concerns, with politics and global conflicts as distant runners-up."
In addition to the confidence index, consumers' expectations for the next six months also fell to their lowest level since July 2022.
Several months of inflation data have come in hotter than expected, as price pressure proves more persistent than some policymakers and economists had expected. ((Well, 3 months, but I guess 3 can be "several". Few, several, whatever --Progree))
. . . Through the first three months of the year, core PCE rose at an annualized pace of 4.4%, a "concerning" trend, per Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers. "The hot inflation readings through March should write off any rate cuts in the first half of 2024," Ayers wrote in a note on Friday. ((Update: the relatively weak jobs report (175,000 jobs, unemployment rate ticked up a notch from 3.8 to 3.9%), released Friday May 3 -- while disappointing, it has put rate cuts before the election back into pundit-talk. The next two Fed interest rate (FOMC) meetings are June 12 and July 31. I see zero chance of a cut on June 12 --Progree))
Meanwhile, economic growth in the first quarter came in slower than expected. ((1.6% annual rate -- while disappointing, that too can add to the rate cut probabilities --Progree))
"According to April’s write-in responses, elevated price levels, especially for food and gas, dominated consumer’s concerns, with politics and global conflicts as distant runners-up."
In addition to the confidence index, consumers' expectations for the next six months also fell to their lowest level since July 2022.
Several months of inflation data have come in hotter than expected, as price pressure proves more persistent than some policymakers and economists had expected. ((Well, 3 months, but I guess 3 can be "several". Few, several, whatever --Progree))
. . . Through the first three months of the year, core PCE rose at an annualized pace of 4.4%, a "concerning" trend, per Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers. "The hot inflation readings through March should write off any rate cuts in the first half of 2024," Ayers wrote in a note on Friday. ((Update: the relatively weak jobs report (175,000 jobs, unemployment rate ticked up a notch from 3.8 to 3.9%), released Friday May 3 -- while disappointing, it has put rate cuts before the election back into pundit-talk. The next two Fed interest rate (FOMC) meetings are June 12 and July 31. I see zero chance of a cut on June 12 --Progree))
Meanwhile, economic growth in the first quarter came in slower than expected. ((1.6% annual rate -- while disappointing, that too can add to the rate cut probabilities --Progree))
In the article, there is a graph of core PCE inflation: 3 month, 6 month, and year-over-year since 1/2018. Unfortunately nothing in the article on inflation expectations
Inflation graphs https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143231474#post1
On Friday, May 10, the Consumer Sentiment report will be released. On Tuesday May 14, wholesale price inflation (PPI) will be released, followed by the consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday, May 15.