US weekly jobless claims hit 1-1/2-year high; producer inflation cooling

[mahatmakanejeeves]

U.S. Markets

4 minute read • May 11, 2023 • 10:34 AM EDT • Last Updated 2 hours ago

US weekly jobless claims hit 1-1/2-year high; producer inflation cooling

Summary
• Weekly jobless claims increase 22,000 to 264,000
• Continuing claims rise 12,000 to 1.813 million
• Producer prices climb 0.2% in April; up 2.3% year-on-year

WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits jumped to a 1-1/2-year high last week, pointing to widening cracks in the labor market, which together with subsiding inflation could allow the Federal Reserve to halt further interest rate increases next month.

Cooling price pressures were underscored by other data from the Labor Department on Thursday showing producer prices rebounding modestly in April, leading to the smallest annual increase in producer inflation in more than two years. The reports suggested that demand was slowing and raised the risks of a recession later this year.

{snip}

[progree]

1. PPI graphs and links. Also yesterday's CPI graph

Last edited Thu May 11, 2023, 02:27 PM - Edit history (1)

-------^^-DARN, that should read APR 2022, not APR 2023

Rolling 3 month average of CORE PPI, last 6 readings: 3.4%, 2.9%, 4.5%, 4.0%, 3.8%, 2.2%

The big January +0.6% reading dropped out of the 3 month average, helping to drop the 3 month average thru April by more than 1.5 percentage points

Latest PPI summary http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
Producer prices front page: http://www.bls.gov/ppi/
Producer Price Index (PPI), seasonally adjusted http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4?output_view=pct_1mth

OLD CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand goods less foods and energy -
   http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD413?output_view=pct_1mth
CORE PPI - Producer Price Index, seasonally adjusted - Final demand less foods. energy. and trade services -
   http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116?output_view=pct_1mth

I use the latter Core PPI (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services) because that's what the BLS features in its news release).

Latest Breaking News' PPI thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143073137

Compare to yesterday's CPI report which is pretty much been flatlined for several months at more than double the Fed's 2% target



All about yesterday's CPI: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143072605#post5

[progree]

2. Unemployment insurance claims - including the revisions and comparison to last week's report

From the source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Initial claims: 264,000, up by 22,000 from the previous week. The previous week was unrevised,

In last Thursday's report (5/4), initial claims was reported as 242,000
(242 + 22 = 264 v/ )

=========================================================

Continuing claims: 1,813k (Up 12k from previous week, previous week revised down 4k)

In last Thursday's report (5/4), continuing claims was reported as 1,805k
(1,805 +12 - 4 = 1,813 v/ )

Continuing claims is what the DOL report calls insured unemployment.

Unfortunately, the graphs at the above link show considerable growth in both initial and continuing claims since October. But still these are low levels historically (and the labor force is much larger than decades ago).