Construction jobs hold the key to understanding Friday's February jobs report

[mahatmakanejeeves]

I couldn't find an article by Alexandra Semenova within the past twelve days. I don't know where she is.

Yahoo Finance

Construction jobs hold the key to understanding Friday's February jobs report

Jared Blikre
Thu, March 9, 2023 at 1:39 PM EST · 3 min read

On Friday morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to announce another strong jobs report, with economists expecting 225,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy last month. ... This report would build on January's blowout report that showed 517,000 jobs were created in the first month of the year.

Economists and investors alike will be looking for signs that the breakneck pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes is starting to slow the hottest labor market in five decades. Especially after Fed chair Jay Powell just doubled-down on his hawkish message to Congress that there remains a ways to go on the inflation-fighting front. ... The bond market seems to believe Powell, ratcheting up expectations for the Fed to hike rates by 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points at its next meeting in under two weeks.

But Wall Street is clinging to its expectation that the unemployment rate holds steady at 3.4% — the lowest level since 1969 — without a hint of recession fears. Intelligent investors will be forgiven for asking — what gives? ... Thomas Kennedy, J.P. Morgan Global Wealth Management chief investment strategist, joined Yahoo Finance Live on Thursday to break down expectations coming into the monthly jobs report.

Kennedy notes despite the housing slowdown, jobs are still relatively plentiful for the time being. However, that's about to change. ... "In the housing sector, the slowdown has been the fastest we have ever seen. In development of new properties, completions of jobs are now higher than starts," he said. "Imagine if you run a construction business. If you complete ten jobs, you only start eight. There's a team that needs to be laid off."

Historically, construction jobs are the canary in the coal mine in the U.S. labor market. ... Over the last 11 recessions going back seven decades, growth in construction jobs has turned negative — meaning job losses have appeared in the sector — one month into the recession.

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[bucolic_frolic]

1. The Biden Job Creation Boom will not slow down

What I'm seeing and hearing is people working a main job as well as a couple side gigs. These incomes fuel spending which fuels hiring. At some point demand for physical goods may slow, but services not so much. Restaurants, food delivery, supermarkets all on a roll.
And what I see in retail stores is the most marginal of marginal employees, often young, or quite old, none too swift or perhaps bright, foreign of all varieties - all of these in full overdrive to run the operation. And some stores, particularly closeout retailer or food operations, are poorly stocked. Marshalls is running on 1/5 of the shoe department they had 18 months ago, Burlington laden with leftover goods.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. Stock market news today: Stock futures waver ahead of crucial jobs report

Yahoo Finance

Stock market news today: Stock futures waver ahead of crucial jobs report

Dani Romero · Reporter
Fri, March 10, 2023 at 7:38 AM EST

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January’s job report blew past expectations, as the U.S. economy added more than half a million jobs and the unemployment rate dipped to 3.4%, a level not seen since 1969.

But economists aren’t expecting another surprise for Friday’s February jobs print. Consensus estimates from economists are for job gains of 225,000, a slower pace from the January’s blowout number. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.4%.

“Signs of slowing outnumber signs of strength, making the chance that last month was a fluke likely,” Brad McMillan, Chief Investment Officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, wrote in a note Friday morning. “At the same time, labor demand continues strong, which suggests a significant drop is also unlikely. A return to the previous trend makes the most sense.”

The Federal Reserve has been keeping a close eye on all fronts to the labor market as the central bank tries to cool down inflation. The Friday’s jobs print will show whether January’s hiring gain was an outlier or the start of economic acceleration. Another key point of focus will be wage growth — and whether or not the trend accelerated last month.
Here's what's moving markets on Friday, March 10, 2023.

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