US Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Drop to Lowest Since September

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Economics
Jobs

US Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Drop to Lowest Since September
• Applications fell to 211,000; economists anticipated 232,000
• Continuing claims were little changed at 1.67 million

By Augusta Saraiva
December 15, 2022 at 8:35 AM EST Updated on December 15, 2022 at 8:49 AM EST

Applications for US unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest since September, another sign of resiliency in the labor market amid a weakening economy.

Initial unemployment claims decreased by 20,000 to 211,000 in the week ended Dec. 10, Labor Department data ...

{snip}

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. From the source:

https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20222333.pdf

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

News Release

Connect with DOL at
https://blog.dol.gov

TRANSMISSION OF MATERIALS IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL
8:30 A.M. (Eastern) Thursday, December 15, 2022

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending December 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 230,000 to 231,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 230,000 to 230,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending December 3, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 3 was 1,671,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 1,671,000 to 1,670,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,625,250, an increase of 43,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 1,582,250 to 1,582,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA

{snip}

The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending November 26 was 1,586,144, an increase of 302,109 from the previous week. There were 2,458,450 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2021.

{snip the rest of the ten-page news release, until the end}

Weekly Claims Archives
Weekly Claims Data

U.S. Department of Labor news materials are accessible at http://www.dol.gov. The Department's Reasonable Accommodation Resource Center converts Departmental information and documents into alternative formats, which include Braille and large print. For alternative format requests, please contact the Department at [phone] (voice) or [phone] (federal relay).

U.S. Department of Labor
Employment and Training Administration
Washington, D.C. 20210
Release Number: USDL 22-2333-NAT

Program Contacts:
Kevin Stapleton: [phone] {He's back to using his work number.}
Media Contact: [phone]

[progree]

2. It's not what Fed Chair Powell wants to see, oh well

The Fed doesn't think its recession forecast is forecasting recession: Morning Brief, Myles Udland, Yahoo Finance, 12/15/22

In its latest Summary of Economic Projections released Wednesday, Fed officials said they expect GDP growth at the end of next year to stand at just 0.5% while the unemployment rate is set to rise from its current level of 3.7% to 4.6%.

Asked during a press conference following this announcement whether these forecasts — flat growth, rising unemployment — imply a recession hitting the economy next year, Powell demurred.

"I don't think it would qualify as a recession...because you've got positive growth," Powell said.

Though as NBC's Brian Cheung noted in his question to Powell, the Fed's unemployment forecasts suggest some 1.6 million Americans are going to lose their jobs in the next year.

"The expected increase in the unemployment rate between this year and next has never happened without the economy falling into a recession," Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note on Wednesday.

More: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-fed-doesnt-think-its-recession-forecast-is-forecasting-recession-morning-brief-103037537.html

[GreenWave]

3. Good news must be bad news if it doesn't fit the narrative.