Next week's major U.S. economic reports (December 12 - December 16)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

MarketWatch updates the schedule throughout the week. Check their site for revisions.

THIS WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS & FED SPEAKERS

MONDAY, DEC. 12
11 am NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations Nov. -- 5.9%
11 am NY Fed 5-year inflation expectations Nov. -- 2.4%
2 pm Federal budget (compared with Nov. 2021) Nov. -- -$191 billion

TUESDAY, DEC. 13
6 am NFIB small-business index Nov. -- 91.3
8:30 am Consumer price index Nov. -- 0.4%
8:30 am Core CPI Nov. -- 0.3%
8:30 am CPI (year-on-year) Nov. -- 7.8%
8:30 am Core CPI (year-on-year) Nov. -- 6.3%
8:30 am CPI excluding shelter (3-month rolling annualized rate) Nov. -- 1.4%

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 14
8:30 am Import price index Nov. -- -0.2%
2 pm Federal funds rate announcement -- 3.75%-4.00%
2 pm SEP median federal funds rate for end of 2023 -- 4.50%-4.75%
2:30 pm Fed Chair Jerome Powell news conference

THURSDAY, DEC. 15
8:30 am Initial jobless claims Dec. 10 -- N/A
8:30 am Continuing jobless claims Dec. 3 -- N/A
8:30 am Retail sales Nov. -- 1.3%
8:30 am Retail sales excluding motor vehicles Nov. -- 1.3%
8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index Dec. -- 4.5
8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index Dec. -- -19.4
9:15 am Industrial production index Nov. -- -0.1%
9:15 am Capacity utilization rate Nov. -- 79.9%
10 am Business inventories Nov. -- 0.4%

FRIDAY, DEC. 16
9:45 am S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI (flash) Dec. -- 47.7
9:45 am S&P U.S. services PMI (flash) Dec. -- xx

https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/category/markets

I will edit the rest when I can.

Economic outlook

Up next for the markets: November 7 – November 11

Alex Bova
Content and Communications, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

Nov 02, 2022 | 3 min read

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{snip}

[sprinkleeninow]

1. Fed Chair News

Bull Durham

[Wishful-Thinking]

2. So if all of this holds true....

What is the expected stock market response?

[mahatmakanejeeves]

3. The market will fluctuate.

Maybe someone really did say that.

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/09/28/market-fluctuate/

[progree]

4. CPI excluding shelter (3-month rolling ANNUALIZED rate) ... Previous (Oct.): 1.4%

8:30 am CPI excluding shelter (3-month rolling annualized rate) Nov. -- 1.4%

The 1.4% is for the last period which was October (meaning 3 months through October).

That's very interesting. The whole friggin' CPI except for the shelter component, increased at an ANNUALIZED rate of 1.4% over the last 3 months (through October)


The whole CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
3 month annualized rate: +3.84% (calculated by taking the CPI level in October and the one in July)

One can see the rolling 3 month increase (GRAPH and table) by:

Click on "More Formatting Options" on the upper right, and on the page that shows up, click the 3 month checkbox:
The October number is a 3 month increase of 0.9% which when multiple by 4 (to annualize it) is 3.6% which approximately matches
Or more accurately: (1.009^4-1)*100% = 3.65%, also an approximate match to the 3.84%
This has shown a nice declining trend (except for the upturn in the last number (remember the below are 3 month increases NOT annualized):
YEAR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2022 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.9


CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
3 month annualized rate: +5.81% (calculated by taking the Core CPI level in October and the one in July)
Interesting, this has been rather stable (remember the below are 3 month increases NOT annualized):
YEAR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2022 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4


To summarize, the 3 months increase ending October, annualized:
3.8%   CPI
1.4%   CPI less shelter
5.8%   CORE CPI = CPI less food and energy