This week's major U.S. economic reports (August 1 - August 5)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

THIS WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS & FED SPEAKERS

TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL MEDIAN FORECAST PREVIOUS

MONDAY, AUG. 1
9:45 am S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI (final) July -- 52.3
10 am ISM manufacturing index July -- 53.0%
10 am Construction spending May -- -0.1%

TUESDAY, AUG. 2
10 am Job openings June -- 11.3 million
10 am Quits June -- 4.3 million

WEDNESDAY, AUG. 3
9:45 am S&P U.S. services PMI (final) July -- 47.0
10 am ISM services index July -- 55.3%
10 am Factory orders June -- 1.6%
10 am Core capital equipment orders (revision) June -- N/A
10 am Rental vacancy rate Q2 -- 5.8%
10 am Homeowner vacancy rate Q2 -- 0.8%

THURSDAY, AUG. 4
8:30 am Initial jobless claims July 30 -- N/A
8:30 am Continuing jobless claims July 23 -- N/A
8:30 am Trade deficit June -- -$85.5 billion

FRIDAY, AUG. 5
8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls July -- 372,000
8:30 am Unemployment rate July -- 3.6%
8:30 am Average hourly earnings July -- 0.3%
8:30 am Labor-force participation rate, ages 25-54 July -- 82.3%

https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/category/markets

Economic outlook

Up Next for the Markets: August 1 – August 5

James Chen
Head of Content Studio, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management

Jul 27, 2022

• The state of the job market will be on display this week as a bevy of employment data is due, including the JOLTs report.

• How service providers and manufacturers are faring in the current environment will also come into focus as a result of this week’s economic data.

Investors will get a better sense of how the job market is holding up this week with a slate of employment data on the agenda. The economy is showing signs of a slowdown and costs are rising at the same time. Businesses are reacting by cutting costs. How this is impacting the labor market will become clearer with the JOLTs report for June, July’s unemployment rate and weekly jobless claims all being released.

On the manufacturing and services front S&P Global will release its final readings for July, while the ISM services report on business is also due. Combined, investors should end the week with a better sense of where the economy is heading amid rising interest rates and soaring inflation.

{snip}

[progree]

1. Today: Pers income, consumer spending, PCE inflation; Employment Cost Index; Consumer sentiment

Eeps. in 15 minutes, except for the Cons sentiment at 10a

Will be interesting since everything the NBER will be looking at to call recession or not is getting a lot of scrutiny.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216978442#post8
the two measures we (NBER) have put the most weight on are real personal income less transfers and nonfarm payroll employment.
https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating

REAL PERSONAL INCOME: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI -- been declining since March 2021. Dec'21: 17.791 T$, May'22: 17.700 T$

Real personal income excluding current transfer receipts (W875RX1) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W875RX1
Jan 1: 14441.0, Feb 1: 14484.3, Mar 1: 14442.9, Apr 1: 14487.7, May 1: 14501.8
May 1: +0.4% increase since Jan 1, so not terribly robust, but it is positive.

Of course, the nonfarm payroll employment has been great:

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

But the Household Survey's Employed has been anemic of late:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth