Americans are starting to pull back on travel and restaurants

[Eugene]

Source: Washington Post

Americans are starting to pull back on travel and restaurants

In a worrisome sign for the economy, U.S. consumers are beginning to spend less on services

By Abha Bhattarai
June 18, 2022 at 6:00 a.m. EDT

More Americans are beginning to hold off on booking flights, getting haircuts, building backyard pools and replacing old leaky roofs — in some of the new signs that the consumer engine of U.S. economic growth could be losing steam.

Over the past several weeks, households had already cut back on big-ticket purchase because of soaring prices, but in a worrisome twist, data suggests consumers are also beginning to tap the brakes on dining out, vacation plans and even routine services like manicures, hair cuts and home-cleaning appointments. Business owners around the country say rising prices, dwindling savings and concerns of a souring economy are taking a toll on household spending decisions.

-snip-

Consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, has held strong through April even with inflation at historic highs. But there are growing signs that the spending streak could be ending.

Retail sales slowed last month for the first time this year, driven by a 4 percent drop in car sales. U.S. flight bookings dipped 2.3 percent in May from a month earlier, according to data from Adobe Analytics. And both high- and low-income Americans have begun pulling back, particularly on services, in the past four to six weeks, according to an analysis of credit card data by Barclays. The slowdown in spending is now concentrated in services, not goods, the bank found in a new analysis of credit card data.

-snip-

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/06/18/consumer-spending-slowing-economy/

[tanyev]

1. We pulled back on all that for Covid and never went back to our usual level.

[Ocelot II]

2. Covid caused that for me, and I'm still doing it.

I'm cutting back or not buying some other things, though.

[LogicFirst]

8. Ditto.

[Magoo48]

3. Boycott or cut back on absolutely everything, and sustain it, and make lots of noise about it,

until prices go down. Government can’t fix shit without public direct action and peaceful civil disobedience. Each individual must do their part.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. The panic over Americans who can't have their goodies is obscene

I remember the CNBC panic in 2009 ... bartirama britches ... 'we have to get this consumer spending back UP! It's 70% of the economy! Housing prices must go up!'

No restaurants? Cook at home. Too lazy? Skip a meal and do some exercise.

[czarjak]

5. Rushbo in 2008: "I hope he fails".

[PSPS]

6. LOL. "starting to"

Imagine that! The advertiser-driven media "stories" were all a ruse! Shocking!!!111!!1

I guess the MAGA wallets have run dry.

[IronLionZion]

7. I pulled way back on travel, driving, etc. during COVID

I go to restaurants but still cook plenty of meals at home. I haven't gone to a movie theater since COVID but I did attend a mask required indoor concert last weekend.

It depends on people's personal financial situations. Some folks did better than others during COVID and have money to spend. Others are hurt by the high prices of gas and other stuff.

Higher interest rates, supply chain issues, and labor shortage will take a while to sort out. A lot of stuff for computer chips come from Russia and Ukraine. And everything that is transported uses oil. With more people vaccinated/boosted and less worried about COVID, some of the labor shortage jobs will get filled by people who need the income.

Financially I'm better off now than I was 4 years ago. But every single time America goes into an economic downturn, my natural born US citizenship turns into H1B job stealer super fast. When people are looking for someone to blame for things, they generally blame me first. Indians have a multi-century history of resilience and migrating around the world for jobs the locals don't want. It goes way back to the European colonizers and East India companies.

[Midnight Writer]

9. I am consuming less goods and services, yet still spending more.

I think that is how this is designed to work.

[progree]

10. My FIXED DOLLAR annuity has lost 10% of its purchasing power since January 2021

It's a little hard to be excited about doing any unnecessary spending, when seeing what inflation is doing to things. And unlike stocks, purchasing power doesn't "bounce back" after awhile, but rather continues to erode and erode and erode, though hopefully at a slower rate than lately.

CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0

Separately, note that the U.S. stock market is down 3.70% since January 2021, based on Vanguard's Total (U.S.) Stock Market Index Fund VTSAX (this includes reinvested distributions, so it is total return).

So that means in purchasing power it's down 13.3% ( .90 * 0.963 = 0.867, (.867-1)*100% = -13.3% ) . Meaning the U.S. stock market investor , on average, has lost 13.3% in purchasing power since January 2021 on their U.S stock holdings (assuming no additions or withdrawals). Meaning this on-average portfolio that used to purchase say $100,000 worth of goods and services in January 2021, now can purchase only $86,700 worth. That erosion occurred in just 1 1/2 years, for chrissake.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTSAX/history
Use the "adjusted close" column to get the total return.

However unlike purchasing power, which never "bounces back", I expect the U.S. Total Stock Market Index to surpass its previous high some day, in a few years if not sooner. But the inflation-eroding part will remain.

So I'm kind of in lock-down spending mode.

On purchasing power never "bouncing back" - purchasing power will increase only if there is deflation, which has been rare and short-lived in the past 100 years in the U.S.

Edit I picked January 2021 as my base for this because that's about when inflation started increasing markedly, and my original intent was to show the recent erosion of the purchasing power of a fixed dollar annuity.