The Hidden Cost Of On-Again, Off-Again Tariffs--Justin Wolfers Breaks It Down - Justin Wolfers

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Are tariffs a quick fix—or a long-running drama that keeps getting more expensive?

Trump’s move toward a new 15% tariff is best understood as an import tax layered onto an already chaotic policy approach. After a year of tariffs being switched on and off, the real near-term effect is uncertainty—not relief.

For most households, the important point is simple: don’t expect price cuts. Tariffs tend to raise costs somewhere in the supply chain, and those costs can land in your shopping cart.

On affordability, the gap between political messaging and lived experience is huge. If prices were falling meaningfully, voters wouldn’t need to be convinced by slogans—they’d feel it every time they buy groceries.

And the question of refunds is a mess. Even if courts eventually rule on repayment, there’s little reason to assume ordinary Americans will be first in line—or that it will happen anytime soon.

Uncertainty plus higher costs is a bad deal for families trying to budget. - 02/22/2026.


Topics covered:
Why “tariff whiplash” is economically damaging
How a 15% tariff works and who pays it
Why lower consumer prices are unlikely
The difference between political claims and inflation reality
How the Supreme Court ruling reshapes tariff authority
Refund promises and why money can sit in limbo

Contents:
00:00 The soap-opera nature of tariff policy
01:55 Why tariffs won’t cut prices
03:25 Legal limits after the Supreme Court
05:05 Affordability: claims vs receipts
07:10 Refunds and uncertainty
08:55 Final takeaway

📉 Key takeaway: The biggest cost of tariff chaos is paid by consumers—in higher prices and more uncertainty.