If you've seen the media ballyhooing today's positive consumer sentiment report

[progree]

understand it's the media's job, at least as they see it (get clicks and in some cases also boost Krasnov), to make something out of essentially nothing.

Consumer Sentiment preliminary December (upticks from 51.0 to 53.3. But still a minus 28% YOY change -- the latter not in any headlines I've seen)
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Nothing like a graph to put it in perspective --
10-year chart:
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf


The month-over-month (dotted line) moved up a fly-speck amount that you can clearly see if you zoom in on a large display and use a magnifying glass

The 3-month moving average (solid blue line) actually continued to fall, as what entered the 3-month window was lower than what left the window

And they both are about the worst they've been in the 10-year period covered by the graph.

For the 50-year perspective:
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsh.pdf
Considerably worse than the housing bubble burst and dot com bust
Even worse than the worst of the Reagan double-dip recession

ETA - a collection of headlines, per Bing search
https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=consumer+sentiment+confidence+in+december&FORM=HDRSC7

[Silent Type]

1. Even AI is not enthusiastic.

AI Overview
Yes, US consumer sentiment is up slightly in early December 2025, with the University of Michigan's index rising to 53.3 from 51 in November, showing modest improvement driven mainly by better future expectations and lower short-term inflation fears, though overall sentiment remains historically subdued due to lingering high prices and economic caution. Younger consumers led the gains, while worries about high costs persist across demographics, though some relief from tariffs has helped.

Key Details:
December 2025 Reading: Up to 53.3 from 51 in November.
Drivers: Slight optimism about future finances and a dip in year-ahead inflation expectations (to 4.1%).
Demographics: Gains were strongest among younger consumers, notes University of Michigan News.
Underlying Caution: Sentiment is still low compared to earlier in the year and last year, with consumers cautious about inflation and a potential slowdown, even with some easing from tariffs.
Why it Matters:
Economic Health: Consumer sentiment reflects confidence in personal finances and the economy, influencing spending and economic growth.
Mixed Signals: While a small uptick is positive, the overall picture shows continued consumer concern about affordability.

[Historic NY]

2. Worker confidence 'lowest they've ever seen,' says LinkedIn's chief economist

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/video/worker-confidence-lowest-theyve-ever-seen-says-linkedins-chief-economist/vi-AA1RNIod?ocid=BingNewsVerp]

[Metaphorical]

3. Gasoline is lower

The price of gas is important because it is almost invariably an input to most other goods and many services (G&S). Gas prices have been dropping as demand for G&S has dropped, which translates into inflation from other factors largely getting cancelled out because the economy is getting worse. Once the price of gas bottoms out (usually around $35 a bbl or thereabouts for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), then inflation will start to kick back up again.