I don't understand the employment data

[question everything]

US weekly jobless claims dive to a more than three-year low

WASHINGTON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a more than three-year low last week, allaying fears of a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions after independent surveys showed job losses in November.

Difficulties adjusting the weekly jobless claims data around the Thanksgiving holiday could have accounted for some of the unexpected decline reported by the Labor Department on Thursday. Still, economists said the weekly unemployment claims report, the most timely data on the economy's health, was consistent with a labor market that remained in a holding pattern.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-drop-lowest-level-more-than-three-years-2025-12-04/

After all the Musk firing of Federal employees and we hear about employers not hiring we get such a positive image?

[bucolic_frolic]

1. This is end of year hiring for large corporations

Department and division budgets must be spent or it's a fail for execs and next year's budget asks. Bonuses would not be granted. Plus they know AI is rifling their workforce and need numbers on hand until they consolidate around AI and let the excess go.

Small businesses are shutting down or in contraction from tariffs. They are the growth employment engines, but are dwarfed at this time of year by big business which has all the money.

[progree]

2. The numbers are seasonally adjusted

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

So regular seasonal patterns have been adjusted for. Albeit anything unusual about the season (way warmer or colder or snowier than normal etc.) are not adjusted for, and the seasonal adjustment is not an exact science for that and other reasons.

Scroll down to see the graph of unadjusted claims

and then tables with both

[bucolic_frolic]

6. I don't believe government statistics

Statistics can be made to prove anything they want to prove. End of year hiring and bulking up for whatever AI deals them is real.

[mercuryblues]

3. Are they accounting for

Christmas hires?

[progree]

4. The numbers are seasonally adjusted (see #2 above). And they are uninsurance claims, i.e. layoffs, not net job changes

though an upturn in hiring rate would affect unemployment insurance claims somewhat (companies would be more inclined to avoid layoffs of the kinds of jobs they need more seasonal workers for, and some laid off employees would find new jobs sooner than otherwise and so might not file)

[progree]

5. I don't know either. You know the usual explanation: Krasnov Krasnov!

Last edited Fri Dec 5, 2025, 05:40 PM - Edit history (1)

even though states administer the programs and collect the data, and most states post it.