Landslide Victory for Arevalo Rattles Political Mafias in Guatemala (Analysis)
TUESDAY, AUGUST 22, 2023
CENTRAL AMERICA / POLITICS
Carlos Barrera
Monday, August 21, 2023
Roman Gressier, Gabriel Labrador and José Luis Sanz
Leer en español
Sociologist and diplomat Bernardo Arévalo de León, of the progressive Semilla Movement party, won the presidency in Guatemala this Sunday, August 20, by a comfortable margin of 21 points over former first lady Sandra Torres, of the National Unity of Hope (UNE). The runoff election became a referendum on the continuation of the system of political corruption that has held power in Guatemala for the past decade.
“We are a government born of a proposal to frontally fight corruption, and with the support of the people,” said Arévalo after the announcement of preliminary results showed he had obtained 58 percent of votes. “In this historic moment, it was an act of courage for each person to cast their vote.”
If they manage to overcome legal hurdles posed by the Public Prosecutor’s Office and traditional elites in recent weeks to the certification of the results and to Semilla’s legal standing in a clear attempted electoral coup intended to prevent Arévalo from taking office, he and running mate Karin Herrera, a university professor, will be sworn in on January 14. They will be the tenth administration in the democratic era in Guatemala, but just the second to identify as left-of-center.
The constant allegations of fraud made since the end of june by prosecutors and by candidate Sandra Torres had stoked fears of a turbulent election day and of a slow vote count muddled by impugnations. But hardly any conflicts emerged from the 24,427 voting tables stationed around the country. By 8 p.m., just two hours after the polls closed, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announced a clear trend in favor of Semilla with 95 percent of votes processed. Three hours later, with every vote counted, they issued the final result: In keeping with polls in the days prior to the election, Arévalo obtained 58 percent of the 4.2 million valid votes, whereas Torres obtained 37.2 percent.
Semilla widened its dominance that it had showed in the 2019 legislative elections in urban and suburban areas, receiving an overwhelming 79.6 percent of votes in Guatemala City. The increase in the vote share from 11 percent in the first round to 46 percent in the runoff, though, has another possible explanation. Null votes, which in the first round reached a staggering 17 percent of all ballots cast in an evident protest of symptoms of corruption in the TSE and in the elimination from the race of three candidates critical of local elites and the government of Alejandro Giammattei, dropped to three percent. Arévalo, boosted by his moderate disposition and catapulted by the attacks against him, gave an outlet to the anger of hundreds of thousands of voters.
. . .
The future president of Guatemala is a former consultant for the United Nations and director of the Latin America program of the international organization Interpeace, he speaks five languages including Hebrew, English, French, and Portuguese and has a doctorate in political sociology from Utrecht University in the Netherlands. Immediately upon his birth in Uruguay during the exile of his father Juan José Arévalo Bermejo, president of Guatemala from 1945 to 1951, his family registered him with the Guatemalan Embassy. Torres has seized his birth abroad as an attack line; on Sunday, her supporters chanted ‘Uruguayan, Uruguayan!’ during the victory celebration in the streets. Arévalo has published numerous books on citizen security, conflict resolution, and military history.
More:
https://elfaro.net/en/202308/centroamerica/27014/landslide-victory-for-arevalo-rattles-political-mafias-in-guatemala
Really hope this good man can make it to the election without being assassinated. Clearly, there's a ruthless right-wing there which will stoop to anything. Hope for his safety, and continued protection.