Panic!! (Or not.)

[sheshe2]

Liberal Librarian | June 30, 2016

Quinnipiac shows Hillary Clinton only two points ahead of Donald Trump!!

Rasumussen today shows Trump ahead of Clinton by 4 points!!!

PANIC!!!

Or, you know, not. Q and Rasmussen are notoriously, how shall I say, unreliable. And with every other major poll showing Sec. Clinton with a healthy lead, one can assume that these latest polls are outliers.

This is the difficulty of living by the poll and dying by the poll. Polls are as much conducted to drive a narrative as to provide a semi-accurate snapshot of public opinion. (And Rasmussen's demographics are, shall we say, silly.)

Read More: http://www.thepeoplesview.net/main/2016/6/30/panic-or-not

[still_one]

1. I prefer the conclusion of the article

"Most polling shows Sec. Clinton with a healthy lead. These two latest polls can be assumed to be outliers. But even so, work as if the polls showing her with smashing leads are the outliers. Take nothing for granted. Don't think that anything is a given.

To paraphrase Pres. Obama: Don't panic, vote!"


Thanks sheshe2

[NastyRiffraff]

6. Take nothing for granted!

Truer words....

I tend to pretty much discount national polls, but even if they meant something significant at this stage, we still have to GOTV. Which means work. But worth it!

[yallerdawg]

2. Hillary can only get more popular!

Trump - can only make her look even better!

The "other" end of this we might have to keep in mind - our side may want to make this appear to be a horse race - just to keep the down ticket money rolling in!

Having a Democratic Congress may just be the real race!

[realmirage]

3. Gravis, even though shit, shows her hitting 50%

Rasmussen is well known to be shit, so no need to address that poll. The one good thing about this latest string of shit polls is that it reminds people to get out and vote. It would be bad if everyone assumed Hillary was going to win. Voter turnout on the Dem side needs to be energized.

[KittyWampus]

4. LOLZ! Perfect gif.

[mercuryblues]

5. I like comparing

apples to apples. Same polling company, same time of year or week to week. Not apples to oranges. Not different polls at different times of the year with sporadic polling. It just gives me a sense of where the candidates stand. Rsm and Q always lean right, so when the show a dem up by 10, it really should be 15.

I do not put faith in whatever polling company it was that had Clinton up by a wide margin a few weeks ago, then the numbers flipped the next week in favor of Trumplethinskin. To me that is indicative of bad polling. Especially when all the other polls stayed comparatively the same. When I tried to research their methodology and demographics you had to be a member to get that info.


Not going to panic over outliers.

[forjusticethunders]

7. As someone who Hillary to smash the Turnip to the fullest possible extent

keep the shit polls coming. I want November 3 polls saying Trump is up by 2-3% points, and make sure you poll 60% white male voters for your crosstabs.

[William769]

8. kick & recommended.