2018 US Senate Election based on margin of Victory. RCP and 538
Less than 2.5 percent margin.
AZ
RCP- McSally-R 0.7
538- Sinema-D 2.0
IN
RCP- Braun-R 0.5
538- Donnelly-D 2.8
MO
RCP- Hawley-R 1.0
538- McCaskill-D 0.1
NV
RCP- Heller-R 1.7
538- Heller-R 2.0
between 2.5 percent to 5 percent
FL
RCP- Nelson-D 2.7
538- Nelson-D 3.4
MT
RCP- Tester-D 4.5
538- Tester-D 6.1
between 5 percent to 7.5 percent
NJ
RCP- Menendez-D 7.0
538- Menendez-D 7.9
TN
RCP- Blackburn-R 6.5
538- Blackburn-R 3.6
TX
RCP- Cruz-R 6.8
538- Cruz-R 5.7
between 7.5 percent to 10 percent
MI
RCP- Stabenow-D 9.6
538- Stabenow-D 13.5
MN special
RCP- Smith-D 9.5
538- Smith-D 7.3
WV
RCP- Manchin-D 12.0
538- Manchin-D 8.9
Democrats are going to win CA,CT,DE,HI,ME,MD,MA,MI,MN regular,NM,NY,OH,PA,RI,VT,VA,WA,WV,and WI by a double digit margin.
42D
Democrats are going to win MT,MN special and NJ by a high single digit margin.
45D
Democrats are going to win AZ,FL,IN,MO,and NV by a narrow margin.
50D