Avoiding the Systemic Election Fraud Factor

[Richard Charnin]

It is about time that the so-called experts who promote overly complex or overly simplistic pre and post election models started to apply the scientific method and utilize a robust probability and statistical analysis- and factor in the election fraud variable.

Conventional media pundit post-election analysis is based on a faulty premise: that it is a perfectly acceptable practice to force the exit polls to match the recorded vote. It is Standard Operating Procedure. It is also unscientific. And it is faith-based.

Election forecasters and political scientists implicitly assume that the recorded vote is equal to the True Vote and that there is no such thing as Election Fraud. But the recorded vote has never been equal to the True Vote because of uncounted votes. And now, since HAVA was enacted in 2002, the massive State and National UNADJUSTED exit poll discrepancies have been caused by proprietary, unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators programmed to miscount votes.

It is often stated that exit polls were very accurate in elections prior to 2004, but have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since then. But it's like comparing apples and oranges: FINAL exit polls in elections prior to 2004 are being compared to UNADJUSTED exit polls since.

It is not generally known that all FINAL exit polls published in the media have ALWAYS been FORCED to match the RECORDED vote. That's why they APPEAR to have been accurate. On the other hand, the RECORDED votes have deviated sharply from UNADJUSTED exit polls (and the TRUE VOTE) in EVERY election since 1968.

It is the UNADJUSTED exit polls that have ALWAYS been accurate. They closely matched the True Vote in 2000, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010. FINAL exit polls have exactly matched the fraudulent RECORDED vote because they have been forced to do so.

This is a link to a 1988-2008 comparative analysis workbook of the unadjusted exit polls and recorded vote:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15


This is a link to the 1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0


The experts and pundits claim that likely voter (LV) pre-election polls have been very accurate in matching the recorded vote. That is true. But they won’t tell you that votes are miscounted in every election. Or that their predictions failed to account for the great majority of newly registered Democrats who did not pass the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) screen.

They also claim that registered voter polls (RV) don’t reflect actual voter turnout. That is only partially true; not all registered voters turn out. But they don’t tell you that predictions based on RV polls (after allocating undecided voters) closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

They don't mention the 11 million uncounted votes in 1988 which may have cost Dukakis the election. Or the six million uncounted votes which definitely cost Al Gore the 2000 election. Or that over 80 million votes (mostly Democratic) were uncounted in the 11 elections since 1968.

The experts and pundits should consider the following factors:
- use votes cast - not recorded – in their analysis.
- employ reasonable assumptions based on both Registered (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls.
- indicate that LV polls are a subset of RV polls
- note that the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) has a built-in bias against new, Democratic voters.
- allocation of undecided voters and uncounted votes
- apply voter mortality rates before estimating new and returning voter turnout.
- discuss the strong correlation between unadjusted state exit poll shares, approval ratings and Party-ID as shown in this graph:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=21

These are just some of the facts which the experts never mention:
- In 1988, Dukakis won the unadjusted battleground state exit polls by 51.6-47.3%, He lost by 7 million recorded votes. There were 11 million uncounted votes.

- In 1992, Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 16 million votes (5.6 million were recorded). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote by implying there was a 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters. There were 10 million uncounted votes.

- In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. It was matched by the True Vote Model (TVM). He won the recorded vote by just 540,000. There were 6 million uncounted votes.

- In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 51.7-47.9%. He won the True Vote Model with 53.5% - a 10 million vote margin. He lost by 3.0 million recorded votes.

- In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted state exit polls by 58.0-45.4%, a 22 million vote margin. It was matched by the TVM. He had a 9.5 million recorded margin.

- The Democrats won the 1988-2008 unadjusted presidential exit polls by a massive 51.6-41.8% margin. The average was matched by the TVM.

- In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 148 unadjusted state exit polls exceeded a conservative 3.0% margin of error: 1988:14, 1992:30, 1996:21, 2000:21, 2004:25, 2008:37

- Of the 148 state exit polls that exceeded the 3.0% MoE, 138 shifted to the Republican. The probability that this was a random occurrence is ZERO. The movement from the exit polls to the vote has been in ONE direction.

Election forecasters, political scientists, academics and media pundits never consider the overwhelming evidence that the 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen and that Democratic landslides were denied in 2006 and 2008. Or that Senate and Governor races were likely stolen in 2010. They never mention the massive documented evidence of Election Fraud, yet never stop talking about non-existent Voter Fraud. They talk about voter suppression as if it is the only problem that needs to be addressed.

They refer to the final exit polls for demographic trends. But they won’t tell you that the finals are always forced to match the recorded vote – and therefore all demographic category crosstabs understate the Democratic vote.

They claim that the 2004 pre-election poll average predicted a Bush win. But they don’t tell you that the weighted average predicted a Kerry win. Or that they were using LV polls before allocating undecided voters. Or that the RV polls, adjusted for undecided voters, predicted a 51-48% Kerry win.

They claim that Bush won by 3 million votes. But they won’t tell you that in order to match the recorded vote, the Final 2004 NEP required 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were still living in 2004 -a mathematically impossible 110% turnout.

They claim that in the 2006 midterms, the Democrats won the House by 52-46% (230-205 seats). But they won’t mention that the Democrats won all 120 pre-election Generic Polls and that the trend line gave them a 56.4% share - exactly matching the unadjusted National Exit Poll. Or that approximately 20 House seats were stolen (primarily in FL, OH, NM and IL). The landslide was denied.

They claim that the 2008 pre-election LV polls predicted Obama’s 52.9-45.6% recorded share - a 9.5 million vote margin. But they don’t tell you that the RV polls projected that he would win by 57-41%. Or that Obama had a 58.0% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share and a 22 million vote margin.

They don't mention that in order to match the 2008 recorded vote, the Final NEP required a 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters - which meant there had to be 12 million more returning Bush voters than Kerry voters. Or that the Final indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters even though only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004.

The pundits failed to question why in the 2010 midterms, the Democrats easily won the unadjusted Governor exit polls in Florida and Ohio – but lost the election. Or why Giannoulias easily won the Illinois Senate exit poll – and lost the election. Or why Sestak lost the Pennsylvania Senate race after leading in the exit polls.

You can be sure that election forecasters, political scientists, media pundits and the Democrats won’t bring up the fact that Obama's 2008 True Vote was reduced by a 5% fraud factor. Considering that the 1988-2008 average Democratic True Vote margin was reduced from 10% to 2% by election fraud, Obama needs 55% just to break even. He needs another landslide to overcome the fraud factor.

[bleever]

2. Forcing the exit polls to match the recorded vote: still sheer absurdity.

Really, how much better ARE our elections than the recent one in Russia?

[Peace Patriot]

3. Thank you for this excellent analysis! It's tragic that it was juried out...

...akin to all the suppression you've suffered for trying to point out how rigged our elections are. This is something that our Democratic Party leadership does not want people to know. One of the great shocks of my life was the utter SILENCE of our party leadership when the corporate-run 'TRADE SECRET' voting machine coup d'etat occurred (circa 2002-2004). I'm still not over it and it has taught me a lot about our political system.

We are exactly where the far rightwing-connected ES&S/Diebold and their Corporate/War Profiteer allies want us to be--with the "New Deal" under siege and no one in office who dares to defend it, lest ES&S/Diebold, which now controls 80% of the voting systems in the U.S., tosses them out, and with most of the people in office bent upon destroying the "New Deal" and all fairness and justice for our people.

That is why I use the word "tragic" in describing the suppression of your posts. I don't use this word lightly. What is happening to our country is a tragedy and that tragedy is being created by ELECTION FRAUD.

Thank you once again for your noble work. You are truly one of the great "voices crying in the wilderness"! And you are a very great American! I salute you!

[bleever]

4. The OP wasn't juried out;

I think you're seeing a response that met that fate though.

And by the way, Peace Patriot, you too are a great American and one of DU's most eloquent and passionate defenders of electoral integrity, IMO.

[Richard Charnin]

5. Thank you bleever and Peace Patriot.

For all of your support these many years on DU. You are both supreme patriots.

Enjoy these graphs.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=22

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=21

[mahina]

8. Hi Richard Charnin.

I'm delighted to see you here. Peace Patriot told me that I would find you here. She mentioned your presence here in response to my old DU adios post, http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x2464344

What can we do now to prevent a recurrence?

I had thought that getting our states to return to punch card ballots would do some good but reading your take on the Dukakis/Bush race, I guess not.

I see in your second link below, Bob Fitrakis
"To protect ourselves from election fraud, we need to begin by barring private, partisan companies from secretly counting our vote. We need to return to what the rest of the democratic world does -- count ballots on paper with full transparency at the precinct level. Then, and only then, use the machines to report. Luckily, it is fairly easy to do.

Another thing we need to do is remove these companies from controlling the electrontic pollbooks. There's plenty of proof in Ohio and elsewhere that voters, particularly minority and poor voters who tend to vote Democratic, are being systematically purged from voting rolls.

The voting rights of U.S. citizens are under attack from multiple angles by Karl Rove and his cohorts. Instead of shrinking the electorate and uses databases to eliminate voters because they don't have the proper photo ID, we should -- state by state -- hopefully in the long run, make voting rights a universal constitutional right. A right that is protected and not subject to Jim Crow practices such as the legislation in the Ohio (House Bill 194) that prevents pollworkers from telling you if your voting in the right or wrong precinct line. We need to convince people that there's no real evidence of "voter" fraud, but there is evidence of vote rigging and election fraud.

Because of the work being done, key blogs like OpEdNews, Bradblog, TruthOut and others have picked it up and the story is at a tipping point and looks like its on the verge of going viral. It is being discussed all over the world".


I know this is a big question but hope you have time to respond at some point.

I have no headphones or speakers just at the moment but will soon, and will then listen to the first link listening especially for what we can do now.

Aloha.

[Richard Charnin]

9. Keep exposing the facts...

"What can we do now to prevent a recurrence"?

We need to keep exposing the facts...and point out the anomalies and improbabilities of all presidential, senate, congressional, or recall elections.

People want the TRUTH. It is now accepted by virtually everyone on DU and other forums that election fraud is systemic. That was not the case back in 2004. But 2006, 2008 and 2010 has confirmed what we knew in 2004.

The debate is over. The unadjusted exit polls have moved from the Democrats to the Republicans in EVERY election since 1988. And in each election, the media has FORCED the final exit polls, state and national, to match the recorded vote. There is a 4-5% built-in GOP fraud factor that must be overcome for the Democrats to win.

You will not find this 1988-2008 presidential state and national exit poll data/analysis anywhere else:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

Just like you won't find the 1988-2008 State and National True Vote Model anywhere else: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

Pass the links to Occupy everywhere...education is key. If the Occupy movement is unaware of systemic election fraud, then we must make them aware of these facts:

Obama needs at least 55% to win in 2012. His 58% exit poll vote share (23 million vote margin) exactly matched the True Vote Model. But it was reduced to 53% (9.5 million vote margin) by Election Fraud.

Kerry lost in 2004 even though he had a 53-45% True Vote (10 million vote) margin and a 52-47% lead in the unadjusted exit polls.

Gore lost in 2000 although he had a 50-44% (6 million vote) lead in the unadjusted exit polls. His recorded margin was 540,000.

[Peace Patriot]

6. Thanks for that info! I misunderstood what had happened...

...and I am very glad that it was NOT juried out. This is election system analysis (the OP) that every voter in the U.S.A. needs to read and understand.

I'm floundering a bit with the new DU system, like everybody else, I guess.

Again, thanks--and mucho thanks for the praise! I admit that this is a subject that I am VERY PASSIONATE about! I think it is ALL IMPORTANT and it gets zero, zilch, nada coverage in the diabolical Corporate Press and even in the few leftist (real) journals.

[Richard Charnin]

7. Bob Fitrakis (talktainmentradio)

http://www.talktainmentradio.com/play_window.php?audioType=Episode&audioId=5580787

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Bob-Fitrakis-on-New-Eviden-by-Joan-Brunwasser-110728-924.html

[Shagman]

10. Now what? A Proposal

My own feeling is that an election is a controlled revolution.

Anyone who tampers with the results of an election is therefore trying to overthrow the lawful government of your school district, county, city, state, or country.

Attempting to overthrow the government is treason and is punishable by death.

Make election fraud a capital offense. These problems will clear up in a hurry.

I know, I know, it won't happen, but it should.

[malleusmaleficarum]

11. Bravo for Richard Charnin!

This is one of the most important posts in the history of Democratic Underground. Thank goodness for Richard Charnin whose mathematical analysis via Monte Carlo Simulation establishes a prima facie case for systemic election fraud in the United States of America. More, Charnin's analysis has zeroed in on the fraud factor and traced it to corrupt Republican operators. This sort of discovery is the stuff of which Pulitzer and Nobel Prizes are made. Keep writing, Richard. Keep fighting. You are making a huge difference.