Democrats will have at least 50 US Senate seats in 2025 without Sinema and Manchin.

[nkpolitics1212]

Democratic US Senators up for re-election in 2024 that will win re-election.
CT(Murphy-D)
HI(Hirono-D)
ME(King-I) votes frequently with the Democrats.
MA(Warren-D)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
MT(Tester-D)
NV(Rosen-D)
NJ(Menendez-D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D)
OH(Brown-D)
PA(Casey-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
VT(Sanders-I)
VA(Kaine-D)
WA(Cantwell-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
Open Democratic held US Senate seats that will remain in the Democratic column.
AZ(Gallego-D) +1D
CA(Schiff-D)
DE(Blunt Rochester-D)
MD(Alsobrooks-D)
MI(Slotkin-D)

The 51st US Senate seat for Democrats is VP Harris or Texas US Senator (Colin Allred-D).

[TexasDem69]

1. There's a pretty close to zero chance

That Allred wins in TX.

[nkpolitics1212]

2. Is a US Senate run in 2024 intended to help Allred build high name recognition for 2026?

TX Attorney General?
TX Lt Governor?
TX Attorney General and TX Lt Governor Election in 2026 are most likely going to be open seat elections. The Republican nominee for the 2026 TX Attorney General and TX Lt Governor Elections will be unknown MAGA candidates.
The current TX Lt Governor Dan Patrick-R is likely to run for Governor or US Senator in 2026.