Who is going to be the Democratic Nominee for the 2024 MD US Senate Election if OPEN?
Last edited Sat Jan 7, 2023, 08:27 PM - Edit history (1)
Jon Cardin-D(Ben Cardin’s nephew)
John Sarbanes-D(Paul Sarbanes’s son)
US Representatives
Jamie Raskin-D
David Trone-D
Glenn Ivey-D running for the US Senate after serving 1 term in the US House will not matter since there were MD US Senators that were elected to the US Senate after serving 1 term in the US House.
1)Glenn Beall Jr. US House from(1969-1971)
Glenn Ivey has served has a Prince George’s County state attorney from 2003 to 2011- 12 years before getting elected to the US House.
Statewide Elected officials Governor Wes Moore,Lt Governor Aruna Miller,
Attorney General Anthony Brown and Comptroller Brooke Lierman will serve out their 1st full 4 year term in their current office.
County Executives
Baltimore County- John Olszewski jr-D
Howard County- Calvin Ball III-D
Prince George’s County- Angela Alsobrooks-D
County Executives Olszewski,Ball,and Alsobrooks have to leave their current office in 2026 due to term limits.
Olszewski is the county executive who is best candidate to run for statewide office in MD
Olszewski won the Baltimore County Executive Election in
2018 by a 58-42 percent margin.
2022 by a 64-36 percent margin.
Olszewski served 2 terms in the MD State House of Delegates from 2006-2015.
Baltimore County is the 3rd largest county in MD.
The best Democratic candidates for the 2024 MD US Senate Election is
1)John Olszewski Jr. because he represents Baltimore and he is 40 years old. Olszewski can serve in the US Senate for more than 5 terms.
2)John Sarbanes because he represents Baltimore,Anne Arundel,Howard,and Carroll county in the US House. His Congressional District MD-3 is now a D+10 according to the 2020 census. Sarbanes won MD-3 by a 20 percent margin in 2022
During the 2010 census, MD-3 was D+13
Sarbanes won MD-3 by a 40 percent margin in 2020,41 percent margin in 2018,29 percent margin in 2016(MD-3 was D+9) 19 percent in 2014, 37 percent margin in 2012, 25 percent margin in 2010(MD-3 was D+6),40 percent margin in 2008 and 30 percent in 2006(MD-3 was D+7).
3)Jamie Raskin won MD-8 which is now a D+29 according to the 2020 by a 62 percent margin,37 percent margin in 2020(MD-8 was D+14),38 percent in 2018, and 26 percent in 2016(MD-8 was D+11)
Sarbanes performed better than Raskin in 2016,2018,and 2020. The 2022 version of MD-8 is way more Democratic than the 2016 to 2020 version of MD-8. Montgomery County is way more Democratic than the Baltimore Area counties.
4)The two Prince George’s County Democrats US Representative Ivey and County Executive Alsobrooks never faced any Republican opposition. Ivey’s MD-4 US House District is D+40 according to the 2022 census.
The Democratic nominee needs to win big in Anne Arundel county,Baltimore County,and Howard County.
Anne Arundel by a 10 percent margin.
Baltimore by a 30 percent margin.
Howard by a 30 percent margin.
Montgomery by a 45 percent margin.
Prince George’s by a 70 percent margin.
Baltimore City by a 70 percent margin.
Frederick by a 5 percent margin.
Charles by a 40 percent margin.
Democrats can’t lose by more than 5 percent margin in
Dorchester
Kent
Somerset
Talbot
Wicomico
Democrats can’t lose by more than 10 percent margin in
Calvert
Harford
St Mary’s
Democrats can’t lose by more than 15 percent margin in
Washington
Worcester
Democrats can’t lose by more than 20 percent margin in
Cecil
Democrats can’t lose by more than 25 percent margin in
Caroline
Carroll
Queen Anne’s
Democrats can’t lose by more than 30 percent margin in
Allegany
Democrats can’t lose by more than 50 percent margin in
Garrett