How progressive or neutral is the NYT Sienna poll?

[nkpolitics1212]

AZ Kelly-D +6 (51-45)
GA Warnock-D +3 (49-46)
NV Cortez Masto-D tie (47-47)
PA Fetterman-D +6 (50-44)


The PA poll has been taken between 10/24 to 10/26). A day before to a day after the debate.

[Lovie777]

1. Likely voters to registered voters? .....

[FBaggins]

2. They have an excellent track record

No point in arguing whether they lean left/right politically. I would suspect left, but their historical polls don't show it.

They have had some big misses in recent years, but in both directions

[Joe Cool]

3. I'm in western Pennsylvania

I’m in Butler County which has a 27% GOP registration advantage. There is zero enthusiasm for Oz except among the hardcore GOP. Fetterman is a sort of folk hero in PA and people who actually live here know it. An unenthusiastic vote counts the same as an enthusiastic vote but I just can’t see a significant amount of people voting for Oz simply due to Fetterman’s speech issues. Everyone knows Oz is a slimy snake oil salesman.

[gab13by13]

4. I'm from central Pa. amongst the magats

I see Fetterman signs where I never saw signs before.

Fetterman is going to win Pa. I know because the Magats are telling me he is going to win. Why would Magats be planning to accuse Philadelphia of voter fraud if Oz was going to win?

All of this hand wringing over Fetterman just makes me laugh. Polls are done for propaganda.

[Joe Cool]

5. Exactly

Two things stand out to me about the signage I have seen in central and southern Butler County. First, the Republican signs are where they normally are and aren’t anywhere new. Democratic signs are everywhere. I have never seen so many Democratic signs in my life in Butler County (27% GOP voter registration advantage) and in places where I have never seen them before. If yard signs are any indication of voting then Shapiro and Fetterman will win in blowouts (at least +5%).

[PortTack]

6. I saw a story about Fetterman when first in office, found out that a former neighbor had his

Utilities turned off so he showed up at their door with a wood burning stove. No fan fair no press, just here ya go..heard you were in need. He has that kindness in his heart…it’s what makes this country great