Bercow refuses to allow 'meaningful vote' on Brexit deal today

[muriel_volestrangler]

The House of Commons Speaker, John Bercow, has ruled that he will not permit MPs to have a “meaningful vote” on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal today.

“My ruling is that the motion will not be debated today as it would be repetitive and disorderly to do so,” he told MPs.
...
To laughter, Bone tells him that no one knew that the prime minister was going to send a letter or not to the EU seeking a Brexit extension. Surely this something that changed the circumstances in which the vote would take place.

Bercow says that the question of whether a minister of the crown “would obey the law” would be a material consideration on his part was not one that he took into account.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/21/brexit-johnson-to-push-for-deal-as-labour-woos-rebel-tories-eu-extension-live-news?page=with:block-5dadc26c8f0859498cfb20d3#block-5dadc26c8f0859498cfb20d3

Meanwhile:

Germany’s economic affairs minister has said “it goes without saying” that a Brexit extension beyond 31 October would be granted as plans for the European parliament to vote on the deal this week look likely to be put on hold.

Peter Altmaier, a key ally of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said he believed a technical extension to allow extra time for legislation to pass, or a longer period to accommodate a general election or second referendum would be offered.

“We have already twice agreed to an extension. I have repeatedly said as my own opinion I am not ideologically opposed to extending again a few days or a few weeks if you then get a good solution that excludes a hard Brexit,” Altmaier said.
...
In the run-up to a formal decision on the timing of the vote, due to take place on Monday evening, the leader of the Green party in the chamber, Philippe Lamberts, said MEPs would vote only once the Commons had given its approval. The next scheduled sitting of the parliament is 14 November, although it is possible the parliament could arrange an extraordinary sitting for next week.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/21/eu-would-agree-to-brexit-delay-says-german-minister

[Bleacher Creature]

1. So what happens next?

I've given up trying to predict (or frankly, understand) what's going on with Brexit.

Can't 2020 be the year that the U.S. and U.K. fix our crazy unforced errors from 2016?

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. Johnson will introduce an actual act that will implement a managed-deal Brexit

as agreed last week with the EU. This has a chance of passing - but MPs (and those in the House of Lords interested in the process) want to put it under proper scrutiny, as you normally would with a far-reaching law. Johnson reckons he can get all that done in 10 days, so he can paint himself as having fulfilled his pledge to get the UK out of the EU by Oct 31st. Whether that will work or not, I can't tell. Some MPs want amendments that would force a customs union (which I'd think would be talks with the EU would have to start up again), or another referendum (between the Johnson deal, and remaining in the EU); Labour now supports this in theory.

Pretty much everyone agrees that soon, there'll be an election. The opposition won't agree to that until they're sure there won't be a No Deal Brexit. That will either be when the Johnson-EU deal passes (before or after Oct 31st), or it's definitively rejected before Oct 31st and the EU agrees to an extension. If Johnson gets the UK out of the EU before Oct 31st, his position looks strong for that - Nigel Farage's Brexit party would have no practical reason for existence, Johnson will get the votes of Farage's supporters, and that'll get him at the very least a plurality of seats. If the UK leaves, but it takes longer, Farage may try and stay in business, saying the Tories are too weak and can't be trusted to negotiate further with the EU; how his followers will feel about that, I'm not sure. If Brexit is blocked (and an extension obtained), Farage is bound to be attacking Johnson from the right, and I think Labour and other opposition parties would see him as weak, and a No Deal Brexit averted for long enough to be able to force an election with the hope of removing him.

If that were to happen, things would be far from simple, though; it'd have to be a coalition government, with Labour in charge, the SNP demanding a new Scottish independence referendum in return for support, and quite likely the Lib Dems also needed in the coalition - who will try and keep Britain in the EU, while Corbyn would probably try and exit with a Customs Union agreement and close alignment with the EU on workers' rights and environmental law. How that would work out, who knows. And that uncertainty might mean them all getting the necessary votes isn't simple - because there is a definite "oh god, please let this all stop" feeling in the country now.

[Bleacher Creature]

6. Thank you! This is incredibly helpful!

[Matilda]

9. One thing I'm not sure about,

is that it appears Boris is desperate for an election, and he seems to be certain he can win.

Is that the case? Would the disaffected Tories who deserted come back to the fold, or would they strike out on their own?

Every time I see Boris, he looks like such a loser - he's physically so disorganised, you can't help wondering if it's a reflection of what passes for his mind. Would people really vote for him?

I imagine one thing going for him is the disarray in the Opposition parties, but I'm not sure how much of that is real and how much is confected newspaper hysteria. It's awfully hard too make sense of it at such a distance.

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. I don't know either. When May was PM, Labour and Tories were neck and neck in polls

with the Lib Dems and Farage's Brexit Party taking just about as much too. When Boris became PM, a significant part of the Brexit vote went back to the Tories - they think he'll get out of the EU with a hard Brexit. If he manages that, then I think he'd be in a strong position, but how confident he really is about achieving that, or how much it's bluster, I can't tell. He's made a hell of a lot about getting out by Oct 31st, and he may not manage that.

The opposition is more split than a few years ago, because the Lib Dems have rediscovered a reason to vote for them - they are the definitely anti-Brexit party (for England; the SNP and Plaid Cymru are too in their nations). Labour has been trying to cover all the bases, which may be preserving their vote in some places at the expense in others. Working out how it will translate to winning seats is tough.

Recent polling: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

[Denzil_DC]

2. Good grief.

Bone's intervention is incredible and desperate, no wonder it was greeted with laughter.

I hope the Court of Session in Edinburgh - which is keeping a close and, after today's hearing, which decided to continue its scrutiny, continuing eye on Johnson's adherence to the Benn Act - is taking note that the government is happy playing "Will he, won't he?" games with the law.

It sounds so far like desperation from the government is going to be the order of the day. Bernard Jenkins has just tried to argue that the Tory benches bailing out of the House as soon as the Letwin amendment passed on Saturday means that the government's motion wasn't voted on, so it can be debated again today.

If Jenkins checks Hansard, he'll find that it did pass, there just wasn't a formal division on it and it was passed as amended by a voice vote, which some see as a major government cock-up, to add to the long list.

[abqtommy]

4. I read in the op that Bercow decided to withhold a vote today and that Bone responded to him.

I don't know any of these people so I'd appreciate a careful telling of the circumstances.

[Denzil_DC]

5. Bercow is the Speaker of the House of Commons in Parliament.

It's broadly similar to the role speakers/chairs play in the US House and Senate.

He (with technical backup from his clerks) is in charge of the proceedings of the House of Commons, from how MPs conduct themselves during debates to what motions and amendments are considered and how votes are conducted.

Peter Bone is a long-serving Conservative back bench MP (that means he's got no role in government beyond being a Member of Parliament).

Bone is an ardent supporter of leaving the European Union, and not to put too fine a point on it, a bit thick.

[abqtommy]

7. Thanks for the clarification. LIke with out tRUMP mess, we/I need a scorecard to figure out the

Brexit catastrophe.

[Denzil_DC]

8. Understood. Even when you're immersed in it

(I live in Scotland and have to keep up with current affairs as best I can for my work), it's often confusing and exhausting.

Even pro journalists are having difficulty at times (and that's the decent ones who aren't just after glib takes and headlines).