Boris defeated, but what does it really mean?

[Soph0571]

So he thinks he is calling a general election - but can he? This is what I think:

If the Bill becomes law.
Boris has decided he wants a general election.
Labour will not agree to it until the vote tonight becomes law.
Labour is then betting they win an election and go re-negotiate.
2nd Referendum will be off the table.

However as much as would rather stab myself in the eye I think I would potentially vote for a Corbyn government.. hell, I can't stand him, but however much he can fuck up us economically and take us back to the 70's, it cannot be as bad as a no deal...

I think they will try and run it out of time in the Lords. We will see.
We live in interesting times.

There are times that I am happy that my first degree was in law - in these confusing times studying constitutional law is very handy!

[hlthe2b]

1. Why is second referendum off the table?

[Soph0571]

2. Corbyn has made it clear that is as PM

he negotiates a deal that he thinks is fitting they would not go for a 2nd referendum

[BooScout]

13. Because Corbyn is a gutless wanker.

[Ghost Dog]

3. So, significant debate & votes come tomorrow.

... Tuesday’s victory is the first hurdle for lawmakers who, having succeeded in taking control of parliamentary business, will on Wednesday seek to pass a law forcing Johnson to ask the EU to delay Brexit until Jan. 31 unless he has a deal approved by parliament beforehand on the terms and manner of the exit...

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/opponents-of-no-deal-brexit-defeat-johnson-in-parliament-idUKKCN1VN259

Tory rebels given second chance to prove loyalty tomorrow before losing whip, says Leadsom

Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, has signalled that the Tory rebels will not have the whip removed immediately. In an interview with BBC, she said that she hoped that the MPs who voted against the government would “reconsider overnight” and decide to vote with the government to defeat the bill tomorrow. Asked if they would lose the whip immediately, she said they wouldn’t. They would get a second chance, she said.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/03/commons-showdown-looms-in-battle-over-no-deal-brexit-live

[Soph0571]

4. All of these MPs have made their choice

They will not back down.
It looks like the timetable means that the bill will come back from the Lords on Friday, if the democracy destroyers do not time it out. The grandson of Winston Churchill and the Grandfather of the House have had the whip removed. - OUTRAGEOUS! - Justine and Rory have already said they will not stand in the next election. Those that rebelled tonight, will not change their vote at this point. They are at peace with their decision.

[Denzil_DC]

7. Soames, Bebb and Nokes were getting heavy coverage in TV interviews tonight.

Others probably on other channels I didn't watch, too.

I agree, there's no way they'll change their minds. They'd gain nothing, and lose face and respect.

Leadsom just makes what's left of the government look even weaker by making this "offer".

[Soph0571]

9. Agreed

Did you watch newsnight? It could not be clearer...

[Denzil_DC]

14. We started the evening with Channel 4 News.

What a blinder of a programme that is - and tonight's was on fire.

We caught Newsnight later (seldom have it on nowadays, but tonight was "special" ). Then the BBC24 coverage of the bedlam in parliament till half an hour ago. I think I'm about politicked out for now.

Oh and on Leadsom's reprieve offer for the rebels, it gets better:

Link to tweet

Laura Kuenssberg ✔ @bbclaurak

Govt sources confirm all 21 rebels are being kicked out - including the man who was Chancellor until a few weeks ago and Churchill’s grandson BUT.... Leadsom just suggested to @BBCVickiYoung that if they change minds tmrw they might have another chance ... hmmm

Laura Kuenssberg ✔
@bbclaurak

Clarification - seems Leadsom was being a bit optimistic, all 21 out in ALL circumstances

So Leadsom manages to make the government seem not only weak, but incompetent, disorganized and even more spiteful! How to win friends ...

[Soph0571]

5. Theresa Mays Chancellor

Just had the whip removed

[Ghost Dog]

6. Not until tomorrow.

Tomorrow, according to Loathesome Leadsom... Looks like the Tories find themselves in some disarray...

[Soph0571]

8. They are reporting on newsnight that he has already had notification!

But if tonight or tomorrow.... it is a fucking outrage

[Ghost Dog]

10. Yeah, so I see.

Like headless chickens.

[Soph0571]

11. It is scary

When the executive ignores the legislature as they are threatening.... we as the oldest modern democracy on the planet, dies.

[muriel_volestrangler]

15. Tory rebels include my MP Steve Brine

who had resigned from a government post earlier this year because he wanted to block No Deal (the seat, Winchester, is fairly heavily Remain). And slightly more surprisingly (until I heard about her views in the past few days), Caroline Nokes in the neighbouring seat - which I'd be moved into by the proposed boundary changes (though an election before they are implemented now looks nearly certain). Both seats have had Lib Dems recently, and I think they'll be pretty confident in taking them back if there's an election soon - the Tories would have to select someone suddenly, and in Winchester at least, there's a significant Tory Remain vote that'd cause any Tory Leaver problems.

So, hooray - I don't have a Tory representing me any more!

[Ghost Dog]

16. Is there no talk of some of these ex-Tories forming a new party?

... and, is no one calling for electoral law reform and proportional representation?

[Ghost Dog]

12. The Brexit ultras cheer him, but the Boris Johnson pantomime will end (Behr)

Brexit is not the first thing Boris Johnson has found difficult, but it might be the first difficult thing he cannot simply abandon. The path by which he arrived in Downing Street is strewn with jettisoned jobs, principles and relationships. He finds other people’s needs burdensome, and is used to shrugging them off. But now he is yoked to an onerous national duty. His discomfort was obvious in parliament today. Johnson’s traditional repertoire of glibness and bluster served him poorly as his authority and his majority melted away. The first significant test of his command of the Commons resulted in humiliation. He was defeated by a majority of 27, forfeited control of the legislative agenda, desperately threw a general election gauntlet across the chamber and watched helpless as the leader of the opposition dodged it.

Earlier in the day Johnson’s statement on last week’s G7 summit had been upstaged by a Tory MP, Phillip Lee, ostentatiously quitting his seat on government benches and swapping it for a berth with the Liberal Democrats. When MPs, including former chancellor Philip Hammond, demanded evidence of progress in Brexit talks, the Conservative leader could not even wriggle with eloquence, let alone defend himself with facts. The prime minister does not look like a man with well-laid plans coming to fruition.

There is a reason for that. Johnson chose the leave side in the 2016 referendum, thinking it would probably be beaten. He intended to earn kudos among Eurosceptic Tories, while evading responsibility for turning their romantic fantasy into reality. He flaunted his unreadiness to own the result, withdrawing from the subsequent Conservative leadership race on the day of his campaign launch. He served in Theresa May’s cabinet only for as long as he could be idle in a grand office. When the time came to commit to a workable Brexit model, he resigned.

In part, Johnson is captive to the public school cult of effortless dilettantism that despises diligence as vulgar and swotty. He is also a hostage to his own breezy rhetoric. Even now that the technical complexities and economic hazards of Brexit are indisputable, the prime minister pretends that obstacles are trifling or illusory. He claims that leaving the EU without a deal would not be a calamity, but also that the threat of calamity is necessary to persuade the EU to grant a deal. He says that MPs’ demands for an article 50 extension make it harder to negotiate in Brussels because continental leaders will compromise only when they see that the UK is beyond reason. In short: there is no cliff, and even if there was one, the way to avoid it is by driving towards the edge at full speed with no brakes...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/03/brexit-ultras-pantomime-boris-johnson