Brexit: A "meaningful" vote for MPs implies a "meaningful" vote for the people.

[Exotica]

http://fedtrust.co.uk/brexit-a-meaningful-vote-for-mps-implies-a-meaningful-vote-for-the-people/

The Conservative Cabinet has spent the past month in public controversy about the customs regime to be applied on the island of Ireland after Brexit. It is widely recognised that neither of the two favoured solutions canvassed within the Cabinet, a “customs partnership” and “maximum facilitation”, is acceptable to the European Union. Less widely understood has been the fact that this purely British debate ignores entirely the much more urgent Irish issue, namely the finding of an acceptable text for the “backstop” guarantee sought by the Irish government that intra-Irish trade (and broader social exchanges) will in all circumstances continue to flow freely after Brexit. Even full British participation in a Customs Union with the EU would not be sufficient to guarantee this freedom. The Irish government rightly points out that substantial elements of the European internal market would need to be retained in Northern Ireland as well, a reality for which the British government appears as yet wholly unprepared.

Many observers draw from this extended and disoriented polemic the conclusion that the cabinet is simply incapable of negotiating a withdrawal agreement for Brexit with the EU. Its solipsistic divisions are too deep, and the task with which it is confronted so intractable, that the UK is at serious risk of “crashing out” of the EU on 29th March 2019 without a transitional arrangement of any kind. More optimistic commentators recognize this risk but point to the overwhelming cross-party majority within the House of Commons that would react with horror to the prospect of a non-consensual British withdrawal. It would be surprising indeed if this majority among MPs were prepared to tolerate a disorderly and catastrophic Brexit as a result of governmental incompetence and self-absorption. It would be just as surprising if the Commons were prepared to tolerate radical amputation of the British economy from the European mainland by withdrawal from both the Customs Union and the European single market in ten or thirty months from now, as appears to be Mrs. May’s underlying intention. The Brexit tragicomedy has, however, always been full of surprises, usually unpleasant. There are at least two important minorities within the Commons well placed to thwart effective action by the majority of their Parliamentary colleagues to prevent a disorderly or economically disruptive Brexit. They are the radical Eurosceptics on the Conservative side and the unconditional supporters of Mr. Corbyn’s leadership within the Labour Parliamentary Party.

The ERG cabal…

Within the Conservative Parliamentary Party there is an important and well-organized minority, centred on the European Research Group, that has watched with growing unease the progress of the Brexit negotiations. They are unconvinced of the need for any further payments to be made into the European budget after March 2019 and view the proposed transition period until the end of 2020 with intense suspicion. Many of them accept that there will be some initial economic dislocation from British withdrawal but believe that any transitional disadvantages will be rapidly outweighed by greater opportunities for the UK as a globally competitive economic actor freed from the shackles of Brussels. The prospect of a non-consensual Brexit holds no terrors for this minority. Over the past twenty years, the most radical Eurosceptics within the Conservative Parliamentary Party, backed by most of the Party outside Westminster, has been able to exercise a veto over Tory European policy. Any attempts by the Prime Minister to move towards accommodation with the EU have rapidly run into the unbending opposition of the ERG. Its members now hope that if they can continue exercising this veto for just a very few more months, the UK will automatically leave the EU in March. They do not need to advocate specific alternative policies to those put forward by the Prime Minister. They simply need to continue their success in frustrating her initiatives.

…and Corbyn’s inner circle

A parallel analysis exists in the Corbyn entourage. He and his closest advisers have never concealed their hostility to membership of the EU. They are happy to claim reinforcement for this fundamental hostility from specious arguments relating to the large number of votes cast for “leave” in many traditional Labour constituencies in the 2016 referendum. Moreover, an abrupt and damaging Brexit in 2019 might well accelerate the date of the next General Election, the central goal of all Mr. Corbyn’s political activity since last year’s election. Consciously or otherwise, he is following the Napoleonic doctrine of “not interrupting an enemy when he (or she as now) is making a mistake.” In a way probably not foreseen by the drafters of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the automaticity of that treaty creates perverse incentives for inaction for Mr. Corbyn as much as for the ERG. The existence of a majority of MPs opposed to “hard” Brexit is an undoubted fact. Their capacity to make their majority effective in the Commons is much less certain, given the tactical advantages of which the ERG and Mr. Corbyn dispose in their respective parties. As long as the present party landscape continues to dominate British politics, they will continue to enjoy these advantages.


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