Poll Watch: Washington State gets an Elway special as ballots drop in the 2024 presidential election
To coincide with the beginning of this year’s presidential election voting period, Cascade PBS has elected to commission a special survey from pollster Stuart Elway looking at the key races on this year’s statewide ballot. The survey, published today, is remarkable in two respects: (a) it fielded in October, when Elway doesn’t usually do electoral research, and (b) it was a poll of likely voters rather than of the usual universe of registered voters. It asked about the following contests:
President
Governor
Attorney General
Commissioner of Public Lands
Initiative 2066 (threatens energy affordability)
Initiative 2109 (threatens education funding)
Initiative 2117 (threatens clean air and water)
Initiative 2124 (threatens long-term care)
401 likely voters were surveyed (“voted at least once in 2022 & 2020, plus new registrants since 2022,” Elway says) from October 8th-12th, 2024. 29% of the sample is King County, 50% elsewhere in Western Washington, and 21% is Central and Eastern Washington. 41 respondents were interviewed on a landline, 144 were interviewed on a mobile line, and 216 received a text message invitation to take the poll on the web. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5% at the 95% confidence interval.
With respect to candidate elections, the poll found Democrats ahead in every race, suggesting the party is poised to have another great election. With respect to the initiatives, the findings were mixed, and the decision to use answer choices that voters won’t see on their ballots makes the findings less credible.
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https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2024/10/poll-watch-washington-state-gets-an-elway-special-as-ballots-drop-in-the-2024-presidential-election.html