The Places We're Watching as Virginia Votes on a Pro-Democratic House Map
Next week, Virginia, the scene of one of the nation’s most closely watched 2025 races, will host another contest with national implications. Much like California did last year, Virginians will decide whether or not to replace their current map, which was approved by the state Supreme Court ahead of the 2022 elections and can be considered a “fair” plan, with an aggressive Democratic gerrymander.
If voters approve next week’s ballot measure, the Democratic-controlled legislature would be able to replace the court-drawn map, which has produced a 6-5 Democratic delegation since it has been in place with one that would have a good chance of producing a 10-1 Democratic advantage. (The current map is basically representative of the state’s partisanship, particularly because Democrats could net an additional seat or two on it in the context of 2026.)
That is, assuming the state Supreme Court doesn’t intervene in a major way. Republicans, and their allies, have sued the legislature, claiming that Democratic leaders didn’t follow the proper procedure when they initiated this whole process, shortly before the 2025 elections. Republicans got a couple of favorable rulings from a circuit court in Tazewell County but the state Supreme Court has at least agreed to let the statewide vote take place, although the latter has not actually issued a ruling on the merits of the case. This puts the commonwealth’s highest court in the odd—but, as Cardinal News’s Dwayne Yancey has found, not unprecedented—position of having to rule on the legality of a ballot measure after the vote has concluded. We could understand if judges on the court are privately hoping the ballot measure fails, if only so that this case is rendered moot.
In the abstract, there is likely an anti-gerrymandering majority in the state. For instance, something that the “No” side points to is that in 2020, the ballot measure that established an independent redistricting commission that was held in conjunction with the presidential election, passed with about two-thirds of the vote. Even while Democrats and their allies have enjoyed a financial advantage and are trying to sell a “Yes” vote as a means to push back against Donald Trump, as Semafor’s Dave Weigel describes in his dispatch, there is a degree of contrition in the Yes campaign’s tone. Something we’ve noticed is that surrogates from the Yes side are quick to point out that, if approved, the measure would be temporary—although, if the measure passes comfortably, it might encourage Democrats to take a crack at trying to eliminate the redistricting commission entirely ahead of the next census (that would also require going back to the voters).
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-places-were-watching-as-virginia-votes-on-a-pro-democratic-house-map/