Donald Trump Hit by Shock Texas Poll

[SARose]

Donald Trump has a lead of just six points over Joe Biden in a head-to-head presidential matchup between the pair in the traditional Republican stronghold of Texas, according to a new survey.

The poll, conducted by The University of Texas at Tyler, gave Trump 46 percent of the vote and Biden 40 percent in a hypothetical presidential contest in which the rivals are the only candidates. A further six percent replied each of "someone else" and "don't know," while one percent declined to answer the question.

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The University of Texas at Tyler surveyed 1,144 registered Texan voters between June 11 and 20. A subsample of 931 likely voters cut Trump's lead further to just five points in the Lone Star State, with the Republican firebrand having 48 percent of the vote against 43 percent for Biden.

However, Trump's performance with registered voters in Texas improved once independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Libertarian Party's Chase Oliver and Green nominee Jill Stein were also included. In this scenario, Trump led by 46 percent against 38 percent for Biden, 12 percent for Kennedy Jr., three percent for Oliver and one percent for Stein.

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More

The first Texas poll I’ve seen in a while that references likely voters. I truly believe the “registered voters” polls are misleading.

Can we pick up both Texas and Florida?

🤞

[riversedge]

1. so, Kennedy is drawing from Biden and helping Mr. Trump. damn

I dread seeing this Nov 5!!

[Meadowoak]

2. I call bullshit. I don't believe any Biden voter would consider

Voting for bat shit crazy Kennedy. Trump and Kennedy will battle it out for the bat shit vote. Period.

[Jilly_in_VA]

9. Nah.

I call BS.

[flying_wahini]

3. And the Tyler area is very red, not surprised they didn't do Austin.

Never trust a poll.

[SARose]

6. This was a state wide poll

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Methodology

The UT-Tyler Poll is a statewide random sample of 1,144 registered voters conducted June 11 and 20. The mixed-mode sample includes 224 registered voters surveyed over the phone by the University of Texas at Tyler with support from ProMark Research and 920 registered voters randomly selected from Dynata’s panel of online respondents. The weighted margin of error for the sample of 1,144 registered voters in Texas is +/- 3.7 percentage points for a 95% confidence interval. A likely voter sample of 931 respondents reflects those who said they would “definitely vote” in November. The weighted margin of error for the likely voter sample is +/- 3.8%.

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https://www.uttyler.edu/academics/colleges-schools/arts-sciences/departments/political-science/pollingcenter/

[Harker]

4. "Firebrand"? Really? n/t

[duckworth969]

5. Stop with the polls

They’re pointless and misleading.

Vote Blue!

[bucolic_frolic]

7. Some conservative Texans prefer WormHead ... surprise, surprise /nt

[Vogon_Glory]

10. I'm hoping browned-off right-wing voters decide

That while they still don’t like Democrats, that RFK Jr guy is a better choice than Donald John what’s-his-name.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

8. Texas will turn blue

Texas may be in play this cycle

[yellowdogintexas]

11. The Postcards to Swing States postcard group thinks we are in play ...

they have lists and gorgeous "Texas Votes" postcards.
The lists are comprised of SVDs (Seldom Voting Democrats) to nudge them to vote.

They are really pretty, and definitely will stand out in the mail

https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/