Will Texas Ever Turn Blue? Here's What The Data Tells Us:

[Shell_Seas]

Debunking the 'Texas Will Never Be Blue' Narrative.

https://www.lonestarleft.com/p/will-texas-ever-turn-blue-heres-what


Yesterday, I posted a map I made on 270toWin on Twitter, which caused interesting reactions and a few ongoing debates. I made every toss-up state blue, Texas and North Carolina blue and asked, “What do you think?”


Some people pointed out my map was “wishful thinking,” while others rejoiced at Texas’s blueness. However, two groups of people wanted to let me know, “Texas will never be blue.” Those two groups were Democrats/Liberals who aren’t from Texas and Texas Republicans.

They’re wrong. Texas will be blue, it’s inevitable, it’s only a matter of when. And the data back it up. So, let’s talk about it.

[OMGWTF]

1. I think it's possible and hope it happens because that's a lot of electoral votes.

Stacey Abrhams was working on this a while back.

[joshdawg]

2. Well, I hope I'm wrong and you are right.

I've lived here in Texas all my life, 79 years, and with today's political environment, I just don't see Texas turning blue for a very long time. If the slug called cruz gets elected over Allred, my fears will be confirmed. I have heard thru a good number of folks here that they believe abbott is doing a turnkey job as "governor."
My hope is that the three stooges, abbott, paxton, and patrick are run out on a rail and cruz is humiliated in the upcoming election. That is my undying hope. Now, whether it actually happens or not remains to be seen.
And just to emphasize that wish: I do not vote republican.........always Democrat.

[TBF]

3. We're in the suburbs of Houston -

moved here for my husband's job some time ago. We live in an area with a lot of moderates - so much so that we were jerrymandered into south Houston so our democratic votes didn't endanger the good ole boys in certain areas east of us. Ron Paul's old stomping grounds ... My guess based on their frantic gerrymandering is that they are damned worried.

They will keep fighting hard for their utopian Christian nationalism, though, so I think it will take some time and a lot of work to turn Texas blue. I think it has been pretty much written off by the dem party lately (as far as national level strategy, I know local dems work hard), and that can't continue if people really want change.

[walkingman]

4. I hope so, but I wouldn't bet the house on it. I've lived in Texas for 49 years

, watched Texas turn RED like most of the South after the civil rights movement although it didn't really get momentum until around the 90s. It has been downhill since especially after the George Bush governorship.

If Allred can defeat Cruz it will be a positive step but the fossil fuel billionaires have almost complete political control now in Texas.

I loved Texas when I was transferred here in '74 but I don't care for it at all these days. I feel like a stranger in a strange land.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

5. Texas will turn blue

I remember when Dallas turned blue in 2006 and Houston started to turn blue in 2010. Fort Bend has gone from very red to purple/blue. Texas will turn blue

[Bucky]

6. That "demographic inevitability" argument is 22 years old

Teixeira & Judis's The Emerging Democratic Majority always struck me as a little naive, assuming that a good chunk of Hispanic and Asian voting blocks won't move towards the Republican Party as their kids assimilate and move upwards economically. We also see the blue collar "meanness and resentment" turn that Maga has made in Republican messaging is also making inroads with significant, if still minority, factions in the black vote.

We live in a dumb, fact-free world today. Democrats continue to put more emphasis on race and social issues and not enough emphasis on pocketbook and quality of life issues. We mostly message the kitchen table issues during the campaign, as seen by the fact that most voters think the economy was better under Trump than under Biden--that is a gargantuan failure of messaging on the part of our team.

So I don't say Texas will never turn blue, but treating it like an inevitable flip that's always just right around the corner is naive and self-defeating. It kind of reminds me of the fundamentalists waiting for Jesus to return. Their faith is so strong, and yet the rapture and apocalypse aren't even in the Bible!

Even getting most of the voters with you is no guarantee. I mean lordy, look at Wisconsin! They've had voting Democratic majorities for over a decade and still can't take control of their state legislature. I hate to sound pessimistic, but the facts just ain't pointing towards a blue Texas

[hurl]

7. Hopes dashed before

Yeah I thought Wendy Davis would solidify Texas women to vote D way back in 2014, especially since Abbott very specifically promised to come after women's' reproductive rights at the time. Even with that, most (white) women in Texas supported Abbott over Davis in a very disappointing turnout. That's when I learned never to trust that voters here would do the right thing. So I will happily hope for someday but sadly expect nothing promising until it actually happens.

[Vogon_Glory]

8. Texas MAY turn blue, but things are

going to have to change. Young people and many Latinos are going to have to break themselves of their non-voting habit. Turning Texas blue is a long-haul project and the Google guys WILL lose some fights along the way. Team Donkey has to get more organized and much better at turning out the troops for early voting and Election Day.

Immigration and integration are important issues, but we also need to talk more about breakfast table issues. The Repuds have not only been tearing up our social safety net, but yanking out the steps on the ladders people used to better their lives. The Radical Right’s jihad against abortion threatens maternal and infant care across huge swaths of rural Texas. Our electric grid isn’t up to the strain of changing winters and blazing summers.

We also need to bust up the myths about “Private Enterprise.” So-called “free market solutions” have been touted as a snake-oil cure for all problems, and right-wing politicians and right-wing ivory tower ideologues ignore the fact that not only are there some areas investors aren’t interested in—like healthcare for all and repairing decaying infrastructure—but their owners’ first obligation is to their lenders and shareholders, not the common good.