Greg Abbott widens lead over Beto O'Rourke with likely voters in latest UT poll

[TexasTowelie]

by Patrick Svitek, Texas Tribune


Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 11 percentage points with three days until early voting starts for the election, according to a new poll from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.

It is one of the wider advantages that Abbott has registered with likely voters in public polling. Abbott had a smaller 5-point advantage in the last UT poll, which was done around early September, though that was among registered voters. After Labor Day, pollsters tend to switch from registered-voter samples to likely-voter samples.

Abbott garnered the support of 54% of likely voters in the latest poll, while O’Rourke got 43%. Two percent picked third-party candidates and another 2% said they supported someone else.

It was similar bad news for Democrats in five other statewide races that were polled. The Republican incumbents all had double digit leads, including Attorney General Ken Paxton who lead Democrat Rochelle Garza by 14. Previous polls have suggested he may be in the tightest statewide race.

Read more: https://www.texastribune.org/2022/10/21/greg-abbott-beto-orourke-poll/

[blm]

1. Likely voters does not include new voters.

[SalamanderSleeps]

3. I concur.

I've never seen a more fickle election polling season.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

4. That seems to be the fundamental question for this election

Who are the likely voters? The polling models seem to be based on higher conservative turnout, while the recent special elections show big increases among Democrats, and women in particular. That doesn't seem to be reflected in any polling.

[AndyS]

9. "Likeky Voters" are voters who have voted in past primaries.

Primary voters are the hard core true believers of both parties.

First time voters are also extremely likely to vote because something prompted them to register, something important to them. Nobody knows how many of them there are. Enough to make up 11%? Hope springs eternal . . .

[LeftInTX]

12. No...they are people who have voted in general elections.

[AndyS]

14. It is my understanding that it is Primary voters because people

who vote in primaries are a public record. Primary voters can be found in voting records with name, phone number and address. These records are available because Texas has open primaries and it's necessary to identify who votes in which party primary to prevent voting in both. Such records aren't kept for general elections.

I may be wrong but I don't see how General Election voters can be identified.

[LeftInTX]

16. General Election voting records are public in Texas!!! They're very public

They can poll people who did not vote in any primary. The majority of general election voters do not vote in primaries. Candidates target those voters. I have access to the records myself.

Landlines are easy to determine from public records. However, phone numbers are not part of the "voting record". Campaigns use other public records to determine phone numbers. Landlines were easy to obtain from public records and because they are ascribed to an address, they're easy, but cell phone numbers may or may not belong to the said voter. (Info is pretty spotty)

[LeftInTX]

13. I spoke to a Democrat yesterday who doesn't like Beto's stance on abortion.

I was shocked. I talk to a few independents, but since I'm a Democratic precinct chair, my job is to corral the troops and get them to vote and especially get them to vote in all the down ballot races..(Stuff like that)
Our midterm goals are to increase turnout among voters who vote in presidential elections, but not midterms. But it is also to inform high turnout Democrats about the 45 plus races on the ballot.

Sure we have registered new voters, but will they vote??? That's the big question....

I don't believe "likely voters" are primary voters...

[AndyS]

15. See reply #14. I could be wrong but . . .

[JohnSJ]

2. I hope I am proved wrong, but unfortunately I suspect, the majority of the populous in both

Texas and Florida are racist, sexist, and bigoted, and I am afraid until enough of the population in both states start to feel the pain that have been caused by republican administrations, this will continue for quite some time.

If Covid didn't convince them of the insanity of the republicans, that isn't a good sign

[3auld6phart]

6. Your

First sentence says all. Brrain dead,meth mouthed,drooling losers for sure

[samsingh]

5. it seems the people of texas want to elect anti-American traitors, criminals, and cowards

who will do nothing for children being slaughtered by guns, people dying of covid, protecting votes, and corruption in the government.

i hope the polls are wrong - but they all can't be wrong - could they?

[LeftInTX]

11. I ran into a voter yesterday.

Said she supports Abbott on the abortion issue. I get it, Democrats take a risk whenever the "A" word is mentioned, but the voter is failing to look at the big picture. She is a Democrat and that is why I went to her house. I was there to talk about down ballot races. I have not seen any negative TV ads from Republicans targeting Democrats on abortion. However, Beto has ads targeting Republicans on abortion. We will see how this plays out. Democrats can do things to increase access to reproductive services without advertising it. Maybe Beto, like his AR15 comment, should have just kept quiet about it.

Down ballot undervotes (failing to vote in local races) are a big issue with Democrats especially since Texas got rid of straight ticket voting. I was kinda dumb founded, so I didn't say anything. This is a response I might expect from and independent voter and not a Democrat. I wish I would have said, "Look at the big picture", but I just did not expect that response from this particular individual. I'm a volunteer, precinct chair, not a paid campaign worker. I live in the neighborhood where I volunteer, so I am purposely not antagonistic. She said that her faith comes first. Well, I'll pray that she sees the light and looks at the big picture before casting her ballot.

Maybe she watches Spanish language TV. I don't watch it. Her surname is Anglo, but her maiden name is Hispanic. Generally people married to Anglos don't watch much Spanish language TV, but some people are into novellas. Maybe Abbott has ads attacking Democrats as "baby killers" in Spanish..who knows??

[The Protagonist]

7. Polls. Meh

Beto by 2.5 on election day. Book it!

[DUgosh]

8. None of those polled were

Newly registered voters. There are 1.9 million newly registered voters in Texas.

[LeftInTX]

10. The Republican attack ads are horrific and are doing their job

Last edited Sun Oct 23, 2022, 09:18 AM - Edit history (3)

And someone on DU complained about Democratic fundraising emails. Guess what? Democrats don't have the funds for ads. So we get to hear on TV, that Rochelle Garza is a cartel member ad nauseum. Rochelle is sweet and down to earth and the ads are racist as f*ck.

Rochelle Garza has been endorsed by the San Antonio, Express-News and the Houston Chronicle, the Dallas Morning New

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/endorsements/article/Rochelle-Garza-Texas-Attorney-General-17527690.php

Garza beat Texas power house Joe Jaworski in the primary and she earned her votes. I do not believe she won the primary based on her name. (In 2018, we had a gubernatorial candidate who won the primary because her name was Lupe Valdez. As a former sheriff, Lupe just didn't have the experience and she was not good campaigner. She was 70 years old and had a "deer in the headlights" look throughout the entire campaign) On the other hand Garza beat Jaworski on merit. As an attorney, she is just was more skilled than Jaworski.
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/11/01/rochelle-garza-texas-attorney-general/

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2022/10/14/paxton-releases-attack-ad-against-democratic-challenger-focusing-on-border-and-immigration/

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/AG-Paxton-launches-ads-attacking-Rochelle-Garza-17500202.php
Paxton's latest advertisements appear to refer to two defendants that Garza briefly represented in 2017 and 2018 — but neither were charged with human trafficking or human smuggling. According to the attorney general's office's own definition on its website, human trafficking is the "exploitation of men, women, and children for forced labor or sex by a third-party for profit or gain."



The first defendant was Mexican citizen Alma Delia Marin-Fuentes who in June 2017 was indicted on charges of conspiracy, domestic transporting and harboring of immigrants who entered the country illegally, for the purpose of financial gain. Marin-Fuentes, who had been deported about a year earlier, was also charged with re-entering the U.S. illegally.

The defendant had originally asked for Garza to replace her government-appointed public defender. But the first time Garza appeared in court on her behalf, court documents show that Garza requested "additional time to speak to the family in reference to being retained in this case." That same day, the defense moved to have Garza withdrawn as counsel, and the court granted the motion.

The second case was that of U.S. citizen Christian Ivan Hernandez who in March 2018 was indicted on charges of conspiracy and of transporting within the U.S. immigrants who entered the country illegally for the purpose of financial gain. Four days after Hernandez had asked to switch from his public defender to Garza, he informed the court he wanted to retain the public defender, court filings show. The reason for the change is not documented.

The Paxton spokeswoman did not answer questions about why Paxton incorrectly referred to the cases as trafficking or about Garza's limited representation of both defendants. But she said "Garza’s work in defense of criminals bringing illegal immigrants into the U.S. and her advocacy on behalf of those who have broken our immigration laws speaks for itself."

Ya'know, what do Republicans do when they retire from the bench? They become defense attorneys!!! All of them...