Forecasts show ERCOT may need reserve power Thursday afternoon, as demand could reach all-time high

[Mersky]

Houston Chronicle
Shelby Webb, Staff writer
Updated: June 23, 2022 10:56 a.m.

Forecasts on ERCOT's website show the state's non-profit grid operator may need to dip into power reserves or implement emergency actions later this afternoon.

ERCOT's current estimates show it may need to start pulling reserve power online by 3 p.m. and could continue to do so until shortly after 9 p.m.

Demand, driven by record temperatures and population growth, could reach an all-time system high of 77,895 megawatts by 5 p.m. That's slightly above the estimates ERCOT forecasters projected for all-time summer peak, which they expected to hit in August. The previous record for demand was set on Monday, with 75,080 megawatts being used.

-snip-

ERCOT, overseen by the Public Utility Commission of Texas, has been operating in a more conservative manner in efforts to stave off tight grid conditions like might be seen later today. Its independent market monitor has estimated the grid manager has likely spent more than half a billion dollars through May buying more reserve power and changing its operations to bring more power online sooner in tight grid conditions.

-snip-

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I will temporarily block out our highest afternoon Sun exposure windows with cardboard to keep the house cooler if we face rolling blackouts. Keeping my fingers crossed that ERCOT rolls the power in a sane way and that, if needed, we only lose power for fifteen minutes every few hours.

[TheRealNorth]

1. If it happens....

Texas Democrats should have a message ready to go after Abbot. Because I can guarantee you the Republicans are already putting something together to either blame Biden or green energy.

[Mersky]

2. Yep. I can tell you it looked like this could have happened yesterday

But sometime about 10:35 am or before, Ercot adjusted the entire demand curve downward and added more reserves. That did not occur today. The scary projections held out from after midnight to now. Has Ercot tweeted today or asked for customers to conserve power? No, no they have not, and I remain weary.

I know from my decades of living in Texas that rolling blackouts due to high demand will occur, but the difference now is that the state’s leadership is more than willing to gamble with harming the public (especially those they view as political opponents).

Living in the state’s Capitol, I halfway expect they’ll use Austin Energy, etc. as scapegoats. This, despite Austin’s power generation portfolio performing well during the 2021 freezer week — that included a high amount of renewables, and better weatherizing than others. The problem was ERCOT waited too long to roll power, and Austin’s power couldn’t reach it’s own customers. So, yeah, I’m worried about how Abbott will lie again and play with people’s health for political gain$.

I check the status of the grid like I check the weather. Today’s forecast: high of 102°F with a chance of heat exhaustion in my own house.

[LeftInTX]

3. They used CPS here in SA as a scapegoat

LOTS of Democratic voters fell for it too.

They all blamed CPS. Even a Democratic candidate. (Well she wasn't a candidate at the time. ) Everyone blamed CPS, especially the grassroots activists like Texas Organizing Project etc.